Long time no post, but had to come out of the woodwork for this one.
It goes without saying that football is a cruel game. Let's face it, it's part of the appeal. A few weeks ago we were celebrating the demolition of the biggest club in world football. Now, our season is ashes.
It's been a weird, frustrating year. The vibes have just been...bad. The bizarre sendings off of Rice and Trossard early in the season, followed by the injury to Odegaard, seemed to herald a season defined by PGMOL incompetency and bodies breaking under the strain. Every time the season seemed to spark a bit, something seemed to happen that pegged us back. We've chugged along, and are still one of the strongest outfits in the league, but it's been a oddly difficult season compared to the previous two.
So what to make of it all?
In terms of PSG, it's a tough one. Having followed the club for nigh on 35 years at this point, our constant failure to win the Champions League really hurts. My immediate reaction to the game yesterday was one of despair and anger. Same old Arsenal - bottling when it matters. 24 hours later, I feel a bit more sanguine.
This was a tie played to an extraordinary high standard, even with our depleted squad. While we all enjoyed the basketball score served up by Inter and Barca, PSG and Arsenal served up a tie of even greater quality. The level of football PSG produced in the first 25 minutes at the Emirates last week was some of the best I've ever seen. The way we started yesterday was similarly brilliant. The difference - they converted low xG changes, while Donarumma batted away our even better opportunities. This was game defined by tiny margins and we were on the wrong side of them.
Saka's miss summed up the tie for us - we never gave up, played great football but couldn't finish. This was in marked contrast to the Madrid game, where, at home, we produced 3 world-class finishes to win the game and put us in the driver's seat. If we had finished any of our chances against PSG at home, it's a very different tie in Paris and I think we maybe edge it. Maybe.
The Madrid and PSG games were a microcosm of the season. This was a moments year. Beating City 5-1 at home is a result that will be hard to cap in any league campaign - a total demolition of a Pep team is nothing to take for granted. Similarly, the Madrid game showed we can beat the best in Europe, when we put our chances away. But the PSG game showed that you can only go so far when you lack firepower. That Kai remains our top scorer, despite not having played in 3 months, says a lot about our attacking woes and what they've cost us this year.
I also felt, at times, that Arteta's mania for game control - not a necessarily terrible thing if executed well - has gone a bit too far this year. The endless time we spent setting up for set pieces this season was almost comical at times. The constant recycling of the ball around the box gave us game control at the expense of cutting edge. I know some of the free flowing football of 22/23 led to us losing control of games and throwing away leads, but there has to be a better balance between our excessive focus we now rely on and it's often uneven results.
So where do we go from here?
In the short-term, it's going to be a tough end to the season. Playing Liverpool in a dead rubber for them, at Anfield, is probably the worst tie you could imagine. If we win, it's a meaningless game for Liverpool, even if it helps us confirm CL qualification. But I worry we could lose and really put a dagger through the team at a moment when they really need to be building confidence for next year. Given the next games are Newcastle at home and Southampton away, I still think we will have enough runway to secure second, but it'll be a particularly hollow finish this year given our points drop-off from last year.
In the medium-term, we enter a no-excuses summer. The club has done some great business in the last few years - just look at the summer of 2023: Rice, Havertz, Raya and Timber. But last summer, save Merino, was a disaster. The failure to land a goalscorer was terminal to our league campaign and may have been the difference between where we are today and a CL final. I have more sympathy for the lack of movement in January, given how hard it is to get top talent in the winter window. But the last minute move for Watkins suggests the clubs knew we were short and gambled anyway. I think it's safe to say that gamble didn't work out.
This summer, the club needs (at minimum) a striker, a wide attacker and an upgrade for Partey. We need more goals in the team and more players that can consistently convert low xG chances. We also need players that can help us play in more tempos - at the moment our build up is too slow - passers that can get players into high xG positions to shoot faster.
My concern about the summer is that, beyond the difficult of buying the right players, we have begun to build a bit of a collection of players that we need to shift. If Arteta is not going to trust Zinchenko, he needs to go. If Tomiyasu cannot stay fit - which he has not done at any time here - he needs to go. Does Gabby J have a future at the club, given he can't stay fit and has never been a natural goalscorer? We'll lose Tierney, who has got minutes this year. And we also have players like Trossard - ones who can still contribute but who look shadows of their former selves. That's before we get to some \*big\* questions: Has Martinelli hit a ceiling? Do we need to upgrade on Odegaard, a player who seems to have regressed this year? Do we sell Saliba to extract maximum value vs risk him joining Madrid for nothing?
So a tall order for Arteta and Berta. But it does feel like next season something has to happen. Two genuine league challenges and a CL semi-final are a testament to how far Areta has taken the club since the dark days of 2019. I feel proud of the team and club again, and it bothers me when people gloss over what Arteta has done to make us a serious outfit again. We should not take that for granted. But the club now needs to go to the next level. Otherwise, you fear the project could fall apart and another painful period of rebuilding begin.
Gb