A huge clash in the battle for Europe awaits at St. James’ Park. We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League duel with our Newcastle vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Newcastle vs Chelsea Stats: The Key Insights
Newcastle United overcame Chelsea in 44.7% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
Alexander Isak has recorded the most goals (19) and non-penalty goals (15) in the Premier League since the start of December.
Chelsea have won 31 Premier League games against Newcastle, only beating Tottenham (37) and West Ham (32) more often in the competition.
Newcastle United can take a massive step towards UEFA Champions League qualification when they host fellow top-five chasers Chelsea in Sunday’s early Premier League kick-off.
Eddie Howe’s side occupy fourth place, ahead of Chelsea on goals scored, while they are two points clear of sixth-placed Nottingham Forest heading into the weekend’s action.
The Magpies snatched a late 1-1 draw at Brighton on Sunday as Alexander Isak converted from the penalty spot to cancel out former Newcastle winger Yankuba Minteh‘s opener. A chaotic second half saw three Newcastle spot-kicks awarded, but only one was taken after two VAR reversals.
Isak has scored the most goals (19) and non-penalty goals (15) in the Premier League since the start of December, while he is second only to Liverpool‘s Mohamed Salah (30) for goal involvements (23). The Swedish striker will be aiming to score in a fourth successive league game against Chelsea here, a feat he’s only achieved against Brentford and Forest.
Isak has been a major contributor to Newcastle’s remarkable run of form, with only Liverpool (46) accumulating more points than their 43 (W14 D1 L5) across the last 20 league games. In fact, it’s the most points they’ve collected over a 20-match stretch in the competition since managing 44 between September 2002 and January 2003.
The battle for europe:
Cole Palmer finally ended his goal drought with a late penalty in Chelsea’s 3-1 win over champions Liverpool last Sunday at Stamford Bridge. His spot-kick made sure of victory after Virgil van Dijk‘s header had teed up a nervy finish following Enzo Fernández‘s early opener and Jarell Quansah‘s second-half own goal.
Fernández has three goals and three assists in the Premier League since the start of 2025, with no Chelsea player bettering his six goal involvements in that time. He has also scored (1) or assisted (2) in each of his last three outings.
The Argentina midfielder also ranks second in the Premier League for chances created from open play (34), behind only Salah (45), and joint-third for possession won in the final third (15) since the turn of the year.
Enzo Maresca will be hoping his side can replicate their performance last time out in the league, too. They recorded the highest expected goals total (3.13) and non-penalty expected goals total (2.35) any team have managed against Liverpool in this season’s Premier League.
Chelsea vs Liverpool xG map
In fact, only Liverpool (2.0) boast a higher non-penalty xG total per game in the competition this term than Chelsea 1.8, and their form has started to reflect their impressive attacking data.
Chelsea have won their last three Premier League games, including victories over Everton and Fulham, after winning three of their previous eight matches (D2 L3). A five-match winning run between November and December is their only better streak this term, suggesting Maresca’s side have hit their stride at the right time.
In terms of team news, there is no change for Chelsea – Mykhailo Mudryk, Christopher Nkunku and Wesley Fofana remain out for the season. Meanwhile, Fabian Schär and Kieran Trippier will be assessed by Newcastle before Sunday, with first-team regulars Joelinton and Lewis Hall the only major absentees.
Newcastle vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
Newcastle have won seven of their last 11 Premier League home games against Chelsea (D1 L3), including both under manager Howe.
The Newcastle boss has won seven of his 20 meetings with Chelsea in all competitions, though each of these seven victories has come against a different manager.
Newcastle have already beaten Chelsea 2-0 at St. James’ Park this season en route to winning the EFL Cup. They last beat the Blues twice in the same campaign in 1986-87 (both in the league), while 1931-32 (league and FA Cup) was the last season they beat them in two different competitions.
Chelsea still have hope, though, considering they have won 31 Premier League games against Newcastle, only beating Tottenham (37) and West Ham (32) more often in the competition.
Newcastle vs Chelsea Prediction
Newcastle were backed as the favourites for this clash by the Opta supercomputer, winning 44.7% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Chelsea still hold a 30.8% chance of victory, while the draw was rated at 24.6%.
Newcastle vs Chelsea Prediction Opta
Newcastle vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Newcastle predicted lineup vs Chelsea
Chelsea predicted lineup vs Newcastle
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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