Aston Villa are level on points with fifth-placed Chelsea heading into the final two games of the campaign
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Sport
16:56, 11 May 2025
A TV cameraman captures an Aston Villa goal celebration
A TV cameraman captures an Aston Villa goal celebration
Aston Villa are locked in a race for Champions League football alongside Manchester City, Newcastle United, Chelsea, and Nottingham Forest.
Even Arsenal aren’t home and dry yet, with Mikel Arteta’s side still needing one more win to hit 70 points. The Gunners visit Southampton on the final day of the season, so if they fail to get results against Liverpool or Newcastle in their next two matches, they’ll still have that late safety net.
Before diving into the permutations, Villa’s task is simple: win their remaining games against Tottenham and Manchester United. If they manage that, they will reach 69 points and have a decent chance of finishing in the top five.
Their recent 1–0 victory over Bournemouth was crucial - without it, Villa's Champions League hopes would have been all but over.
Man City
City can guarantee finishing above Villa by taking four points from their last two matches - against Bournemouth (H) and Fulham (A). That would see them reach 69 points.
Pep Guardiola’s side failed to beat Southampton last time out but still have qualification in their own hands. However, both Bournemouth and Fulham are chasing European spots.
Fulham need to beat Brentford on Sunday to stay in contention for eighth place on the final day.
Bournemouth must beat City to remain in the race, as they currently sit two points behind Brentford and Brighton.
What do Villa need?
If Villa reach 69 points, they will finish above City only if Guardiola's side lose one of their remaining matches.
Newcastle United
Newcastle will finish above Villa if they win just one of their remaining games - against Arsenal (A) or Everton (H). After beating Chelsea, they’re in a strong position to secure a top-five spot.
What do Villa need?
Assuming Villa hit 69 points, they’ll finish above Newcastle only if the Magpies fail to win either of their final two matches.
Chelsea
Like Villa, Chelsea must win both of their remaining matches to reach 69 points.
They’re expected to beat Manchester United at home on Friday night, especially with Ruben Amorim’s side likely focusing on the Europa League final just five days later. Then, the Blues face Forest at the City Ground - which could be something of a Champions League qualification play-off.
What do Villa need?
While unlikely, Villa’s ideal scenario is for Chelsea to drop points against United. If Chelsea win, Villa will then need Forest to at least avoid defeat on the final day.
Nottingham Forest
After failing to beat already-relegated Leicester City this afternoon, Forest are the only team in the race who cannot reach 69 points.
They play West Ham away next weekend before hosting Chelsea on the final day.
What do Villa need?
Assuming Villa win both of their remaining games, it would actually be beneficial for Forest to beat West Ham so they have something to play for against Chelsea.
Chelsea are likely to beat United, so Villa may rely on Forest to prevent them from winning at the City Ground.
What is the most likely scenario for Villa to finish in the top five?
The most likely path for Villa to clinch a top-five finish is: win both remaining matches (Tottenham and Manchester United), and Chelsea failing to win at Forest on the final day.
If Forest win both their remaining games, they will finish above Chelsea - but will only surpass Villa if Unai Emery's side fail to beat United at Old Trafford.
How else can they do it?
Assuming Villa win their next two, they will finish in the top five if one of the following happens...
Chelsea fail to beat both Manchester United and Forest.
Newcastle fail to beat either Arsenal or Everton.
Man City lose one of their remaining two games.
Arsenal fail to claim more than one point from their remaining three games.
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