Ruben Amorim and Ange Postecoglou cannot complain that their preparations for a ludicrously important game have been shocking. Newcastle are flying.
Premier League winners
LeicesterIf annoying your rivals represents the high point of a season it has not gone especially well. But fair play because that is a very funny bit.
NewcastleIt could have gone two different ways. Newcastle ending their long trophy drought might just as easily have derailed the rest of their season, the instinct to celebrate and that release of pent-up emotion providing the most intoxicating and understandable distraction imaginable.
But harnessed properly, it was always a potential springboard for something not greater and certainly not as tangible, but definitely more beneficial in the long run. While Newcastle cannot put Champions League qualification alongside the Carabao Cup in their trophy cabinet, it means more for their future aspirations.
And no team has earned more Premier League points since the Carabao final than winners Newcastle, who have used that platform and momentum to surge past almost all of their rivals into prime position:
These games really do suit them like no other. Newcastle have played members of the Big Six eight times at St James’ Park this season, winning six, drawing two, scoring 17 goals and conceding six. Those results formed a crucial part of their Carabao glory and seem likely to do the same with this Champions League push.
Simon RuskPerhaps only Eddie Howe, Thomas Frank, Oliver Glasner, Vitor Pereira and David Moyes have met their Premier League job requirements as specifically and definitively as Rusk this season. The man responsible for a quarter of Southampton’s points and two-thirds of their clean sheets having taken charge of just one sixth of their games has crossed an underwhelming but entirely necessary finish line nonetheless.
In dragging Southampton beyond record-breakingly dreadful and into the mere realm of historically poor without the stigma attached, Rusk has delivered on his remit and bruised some egos along the way.
The 43-year-old should be allowed to step back into a permanent role on the first-team coaching staff in the summer under whichever poor sap is chosen to lead their Championship promotion charge. Rusk has shown enough to suggest he is worth keeping around.
He is also one of five managers to face and never lose to Pep Guardiola in the Premier League, and probably in time the toughest of those quiz question answers alongside former Middlesbrough caretaker Steve Agnew.
BrentfordFour straight wins for the first time in their Premier League history has turned European qualification from distant chance to distinct possibility for Brentford. Their home and away form has finally aligned at the perfect time and the injuries have abated.
It is a ridiculous achievement for them to be eighth, with the ritual sacrifice of their domestic cup hopes entirely vindicated if Europa Conference League football can be secured.
Selling your star striker and scoring more goals than all but the current top four is wild. Frank is a ludicrously good coach, even if it does still feel as though he would be sacked within six months if appointed anywhere else.
Crystal PalaceOne point from setting a new club-record Premier League tally after doing the double over Spurs, Manchester United and Brighton, with the FA Cup final to follow this weekend.
One man will be particularly devastated but Oliver Glasner is doing phenomenal work.
Aston VillaThe success of their January transfer gamble depends exclusively on reaching the Champions League, but Aston Villa qualifying for Europe through league position for a third straight season is an underrated accomplishment that surprisingly few teams have managed in recent years.
Unai Emery’s worth is undoubted but he continues to prove it in circumstances such as these. Away at Bournemouth without Youri Tielemans and Marcus Rashford, the Spaniard figured that Villa’s best chance was also without the ball. And that in itself was a risk, considering their six lowest shares of Premier League possession this season had returned five defeats and a draw.
Their four lowest shares of Premier League possession in 2023/24 yielded three defeats and a draw. It is not Villa’s typical game to sit back and soak up pressure.
But against Bournemouth it was an inspirational call, with a more rudimentary defensive four than usual helping combine Ollie Watkins’ record-breaking goal with a clean sheet.
The key to their season has been in games against the teams around them. Only Liverpool have more points against the top half than Villa (28), who have done better in just one Premier League season – the 42-game inaugural campaign of 1992/93. That is down to a change in mindset overseen wonderfully by the manager.
Of course, it won’t be relevant for their final two games against the teams in 16th and 17th. But Villa have played a blinder in saving these miserable, preoccupied versions of Manchester United and Spurs til last.
ArsenalNo club has been behind in fewer Premier League games so the opportunities to do so have been limited, but had Arsenal been able to turn more of their deficits into draws or wins their season would have a vastly different complexion.
As it is, recovering from two quickfire first-half goals at Anfield to draw 2-2 even against a slightly absent Liverpool provided welcome proof that they retain those powers of recovery.
READ MORE: 16 Conclusions on Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal: Alexander-Arnold, the weird boos, the embarrassing fans
Conor BradleyHe might well get a statue at this rate.
BetoIt might be that Moyes is able to resist the obvious temptation to sign Marko Arnautovic, whose Inter contract expires at the end of the season and will not be renewed. The success of Beto as his latest centre-forward reclamation project should offset any desperate transfer moves at least.
There was one sensational line from the Everton manager about the Guinean’s progress. “He’s done great, he’s improving,” Moyes said. “If he was a 19-year-old striker you’d say he’s got a bit to go, he’s not but he’s certainly improving,” he added of a 27-year-old who cannot afford to coast on potential.
Nor does he have any inclination. Moyes mentioning how Beto trains “like you wouldn’t believe” and “is really trying” is a better indication of his standing under the Scot than the seven goals he has scored in 17 games since his appointment – as many as he mustered in 50 Sean Dyche appointments.
No player has scored more goals in the Premier League this season without providing a single assist, and that narrowed focus between the posts has worked wonders. Unless Leeds offer stupid money, Beto has a part to play in this sustained Everton revival.
Brighton
From a recent Winners and Losers:
‘It will be a close-run thing but Yasin Ayari’s stunning strike against West Ham has given Brighton a chance. They have pulled level with Arsenal for the most different scorers in the Premier League this season (16 each) and can claim the crown outright over the next four games.
‘Brajan Gruda seems like the safest bet but Lewis Dunk could continue his resurgence with a goal and if worst comes to worst, Bart Verbruggen can be sent up for a corner on the final day.’
Fabian Hurzeler knows what he must do. Verbruggen securing Conference League qualification by sending a goal kick flying over Fraser Forster’s head is written in the stars.
Aaron Wan-Bissaka“I can’t say this categorically because I don’t know Aaron’s career, but I can’t imagine he’s played as well as he has for us at this point in his career,” said Graham Potter of Aaron Wan-Bissaka, who set up the clinching goal against his former club to render this his joint-best Premier League season in terms of an attacking return.
It’s difficult to imagine he’s played many clever reverse passes in the build-up to a goal at Old Trafford either.
Two goals and four assists is not especially productive but the full-back’s improvement in that department has been obvious. In a season of unrelenting suffering for West Ham his £15m signing and six-year contract offers hope.
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Premier League losers
Manchester United and SpursThere have been games with bigger stakes before, but surely none with such a ridiculous gulf between the potential reward for victory and further embarrassment inflicted by defeat.
It is difficult to recall the last fixture both teams so willingly torched their entire seasons for. Neither Manchester United nor Spurs were particularly wrong to have prioritised the Europa League basically since the knockout stage commenced, but the idea their Premier League form had to be offered as an unavoidable sacrifice is preposterous – not least because their apparent advantage over continental opposition will be entirely redundant in the final.
Both Ruben Amorim and Ange Postecoglou made reference to “the levels” needing to be higher after their latest defeats, with surprise that players could not step up and motivate themselves for games the managers have openly written off in terms of importance.
Their approaches in the build-up have been different, with Amorim publicly wondering whether Champions League qualification might actually be worse for his players, rather ignoring how it should offset the need for any more unnecessary job losses throughout the club, while Postecoglou has made no attempt to hide what it would mean for Spurs.
But both have essentially said for months that these games don’t really matter, as their combined 37 Premier League defeats bear out. “Who cares if we’re struggling in the league? It’s a separate thing,” Postecoglou said in a fair reaction after reaching the Europa final, but that sentiment inevitably transmits through the squad.
The result is two Premier League teams entering a stupidly important one-off game in wilfully abysmal form, and as much as the lucrative and glorious plaster on offer for the winners has been highlighted, it doesn’t feel like nearly enough has been made of what the loser will be left with: a historically bad campaign, a squad with shattered confidence, a manager with at best an uncertain future and a summer which must go perfectly just to stabilise themselves.
Ruben DiasIt had been a while since someone associated with Manchester City decidedly to actively soil themselves in protest at an insolent team not rolling over to have their bellies tickled.
If ever a season was going to properly humble and shame that dormant side of self-important, condescending arrogance Pep Guardiola seemed to have suppressed within his squad it would be this one – the reigning champions’ worst of the Spaniard’s reign by far.
And to be fair to Guardiola, he outright dismissed the suggestion Southampton were somehow to blame for Manchester City’s failings.
“They can do whatever they want. It’s on us to break them. They didn’t do much but we have to accept the way they play. I don’t agree with Ruben. We have to accept it,” is absolutely right.
The hope for Manchester City is that the aversion to introspection so proudly worn by one of their leaders does not pervade a side in no position whatsoever to snipe at the way other teams play. It was always curious when they blamed those rare slips at their peak on the opposition choosing not to hand three points over, but feeling the need to punch so far down when they have been laughably short of their own standards all campaign is embarrassing.
Manchester City had largely outgrown that finger-pointing, responsibility-shirking part of their identity, and any rebuild should involve restoring it. As eagerly awaited as Rodri’s comeback is, it would be regrettable if it heralds the return of Manchester City’s sore loser edge too.
Erling HaalandThe Are Manchester City Better Without Erling Haaland narrative strand will never die. A ten-year contract ought to have rendered such talk null and void but Guardiola’s side were notably worse for the Norwegian’s presence against Southampton.
The strikerless 4-2-2-2 formation had been refined to the point Manchester City were on their longest winning streak since October, and sacrificing it to give Haaland the full 90 minutes on his return felt like a mistake.
Guardiola “did not expect” Southampton to set up so defensively and simply said of Haaland’s lack of supply that “Erling needs people to deliver balls to him” regardless of what position they play, but it does feel as though his effectiveness is contingent on using wingers, which in turn relies on there being the sort of stable midfield Manchester City cannot currently offer.
If Rodri cannot make it for the FA Cup final then there could be a good old-fashioned Guardiola overthink in reverting back to the system which inspired Manchester City to beat Crystal Palace 5-2 just one month ago. Omar Marmoush feels like the better option than Haaland right now.
FulhamMarco Silva mentioned that “the last six or seven games” had not been good enough from Fulham, but it feels like the eighth in that sequence – the 3-0 home defeat to Crystal Palace in the FA Cup quarter-final – was the most damaging.
On the morning of that game, Fulham were eighth and three points off the Champions League places. But since then their form has been miserable, with only the two Europa League finalists and relegated three faring worse.
The international break in March might have killed their momentum and that tendency to drop points from winning positions has become a particular problem. Only Liverpool, Arsenal and Nottingham Forest have led more Premier League games than Fulham this season but the Cottagers seem to build their foundations on quicksand and have too frequently squandered those advantages.
That result confirmed this to be a season of consolidation when so much more was promised.
Nicolas Jackson
A quite silly thing to do for a player whose talents are obvious but his drawbacks no less so. The race between a player’s Premier League goals (24) and Premier League cards (18) should not be so close, particularly when his former manager outlined two years ago a need to be more disciplined which appears to have gone ignored.
Another club might be more patient and accommodating; Chelsea are not that club.
Wolves“I think this was the first match that I watched my team playing like this,” said Vitor Pereira, ruing how Wolves were governed by emotion and chaos and drawn into the “open, completely unpredictable game” Brighton would have preferred.
Matheus Cunha leaned into the vibe by conceding a penalty after losing the ball on the edge of his own area, while Pablo Sarabia’s aimless switch was punished to the fullest degree.
It was the first time in 17 games Wolves had lost by at least two goals, and not coincidentally the first time in a while Wolves played someone else’s game rather than their own.
BournemouthIt is starting to feel a little bit like those swashbuckling January wins cursed them. Bournemouth have not won consecutive Premier League games since dispatching Newcastle and Nottingham Forest in the space of a week so spectacularly four months ago.
Their form since that pair of victories which left them seventh, a point behind both Manchester City and Newcastle, has been atrocious:
Andoni Iraola emphasised the need to “manage the small things better,” presumably like not letting Tyrone Mings test the structural integrity of one’s jaw with his elbow. And when you consider Bournemouth have lost 13 games in all competitions this season, but the only two by more than one goal were both administered by Liverpool, you see his point.
IpswichThe record for fewest home points in a Premier League season remains seven, set by Sunderland in 2005/06. It is a bar Southampton (six) are set to clear, but Ipswich have only managed to match it while already conceding more goals at Portman Road than the Black Cats at the Stadium of Light two decades ago.
Only four clubs have accrued more points away than at home, but none with such a drastic difference as Ipswich. If they are to return to this stage soon, correcting that must be the priority.
Nottingham ForestAn undoubtedly frustrating result, performance and general petering out of a wonderful season, with Matz Sels still Golden Glove-bound despite not keeping a clean sheet in seven games.
Forest are basically just knackered and really that is fine. More signings could have been made in January and fewer rotation risks taken in the FA Cup but neither would have guaranteed a better outcome and both came with risks Forest decided it was better not to take.
How embarrassing to only maybe qualify for one of Europe’s lesser competitions after being projected to battle relegation for a third straight season. Definitely worth the owner staging a one-man pitch invasion.