To some folks, Draft Day is more like a massive fusion game of chess and Master Mind. You know, trying to guess what the real guys will do, and what strategies they will employ.
To others, strictly in the northeast corner of the United States, Draft Day will answer one very important question: Will Bill Belichick make stupid picks like he did in Cleveland?
Naturally, he can’t afford to. But if his pattern during his brief tenure as Patriot head coach is to apply Saturday, you might see some good, solid drafting coming out of the Patriot War Room. While no draft pick is a sure thing (or at least 98% of them), Patriot Nation is pulling hard for Belichick to make the right moves and select the right men. And Patriot Nation is pulling doubly hard for not wishing that Bobby Grier was still the trigger man by nightfall Sunday.
So far, so good. Belichick has become more available and smoother with the press, though he’ll never be confused with Bill Parcells, Ronald Reagan or even Alan Greenspan. He has managed to retain Lawyer Milloy, Troy Brown and Tedi Bruschi. Steve Israel and Bruce Armstrong may join that list before training camp hits. Draft Day Saturday may thus surprise a few skeptical folks, ya know?
Belichick himself cost the Patriots their first round pick. The salary cap makes that issue sort of a moot point. If the Patriots had a first round pick, they would have more cap problems to deal with in trying to sign him. So, while you read this story and that story about Washington gunning up and the Jets trying to parlay Keyshawn Johnson into the first pick, you as a Patriot fan simply have to sit back and just observe. What more can your cap-strapped team do?
The first pick for the Patriots will come at number 46, barring a deal to trade (presumably up). The Patriots will have eleven selections, counting the four compensatory picks they received due to free agency losses. While the Patriots will likely have to sit by and watch other teams gobble up what major talent is out there, there exists some solace in that next year, there will be more cap room to go after big name free agents.
So, with all that in mind, here is a priority list on positions of importance/need for the Patriots in the draft. Again, we choose to place the emphasis on what and not who. You’re lying if you can say with a straight face that you predicted that Andy Katzenmoyer would be available at 28 last year. No one can really speculate on who the Patriots should take. It really comes down to “best available” at the desired position.
First Priority — Offensive lineman, preferably a tackle
Yes, folks, we know that Belichick won’t take an offensive lineman at 46. That doesn’t mean that we don’t think it’s still good strategy, as well as the team’s biggest need. If the season started tomorrow, the starting tackles are Ed Ellis and Grant Williams. The team is throwing so many lowballs at Armstrong that Andy Wasynczuk is beginning to look like Derek Lowe. This team needs a good, quality tackle.
Chris Samuels of Alabama won’t be there at 46. Not even close. It could be that many of the top tackles in the draft (including Oklahoma’s Stockar McDougle, Wisconsin’s Chris McIntosh and Mississippi’s Todd Wade) could be all gone by 46. If one of these men are available, Belichick would be wise to grab the best one left. He won’t, as you know, but we can hope, can’t we?
Second Priority — Defensive lineman, preferably a huge tackle/middle guard
This judgment is based upon the rumours of a switch to a 3-4 being true. The Patriots need big men to play this type of defense, and if Chad Eaton is as big as you get, Belichick may have to think twice about the 3-4.
Or, he can go get someone extremely large in the draft. If he intends to use 46 on a DL, he might set his sights on Nebraska’s Steve Warren, if available. Trouble is, his dimensions (6-0, 307) resemble Eaton very closely. Matter of fact, of the top seven rated defensive lineman by The Sporting News, Warren is the heaviest.
So, Belichick decides to scrap the 3-4 idea and go back to 4-3. Warren then becomes a better choice as he can slide in alongside Eaton and spell the aging Henry Thomas. And if Belichick does go the 3-4 route, Warren is a two-gap tackle, albeit a bit small. If Belichick is set on refusing to draft an offensive lineman real high, he might snatch up Warren if he’s there at 46.
What, not who? Okay, so we lied a little.
Third Priority — Running back
Am I the only one who thinks Kevin Faulk should be used more than just on third down?
The Patriots are still recovering from losing Curtis Martin and Robert Edwards in successive years. It would be surprising to see Belichick go running back at 46, but given his and Charlie Weis’ vision for the offense, a power runner might be in the offing. Raymont Harris is coming off an injury that kept him out all of 1999, and Derrick Cullors is in a similar boat.
Some draft boards think Virginia Tech’s Shyrone Stith will be available at 46 if Belichick wants to go in this area. Stith, who has power but is not likely to break off long runs, might be mistaken as a twin brother of Faulk (5-7, 204). If Belichick could trade up high into the first round, one might suspect he’d do it with Wisconsin’s Ron Dayne in mind. This prospect is highly unlikely and Stith might be the best running back available to the Pats if they go with it in the second round.
Fourth Priority — Linebacker depth
This becomes critical if the Patriots do indeed go to a 3-4. Marc Megna is too unproven to be a reliable first man off the bench. The Denver game last year should make most every Patriot fan a little nervous about Patriot linebacker depth.
Belichick should address this issue, but in a lower round. In this case it becomes “best linebacker available”, either inside or outside. With eleven picks, drafting two such linebackers is not that bad an idea. Depth is the key word here, especially with four starters solidly in place.
Fifth Priority — Receiving Tight End
News item: Ben Coates is still unsigned. That doesn’t mean that acquiring Eric Bjornson was a master stroke of genius. And there has been no such movement to try and bring Big Ben back, a la Army.
Belichick should try and grab someone who will at least give Bjornson some competition at receiving tight end. In a perfect world, it would be nice if that competition were named Rod Rutledge. But if the Patriots insist on two different personalities in their tight ends (it was in 1985 with Lin Dawson and Derrick Ramsey), Bjornson needs someone to light a fire under him.
From this point on, it becomes “best athlete available”, irrespective of position. If there be any more positions to key on, it might be depth at wide receiver, a fullback (barring the signing of a veteran like, oh, say, Sam Gash), or maybe depth in the secondary. With eleven total picks, the Patriots ought to be able to fill most of these needs. Just don’t expect half this bunch to wind up in Honolulu any time soon.
This takes care of the “whats”. Now, it’s up to Belichick to take care of the “whos”.
Like it or not, this becomes Critical Day One in the general manager/coach life of Bill Belichick. The man who is famous for Steve Everitt and Eric Turner has to turn up something more than Fool’s Gold on Saturday. Belichick has to shut up his critics and show the world that he can be a general and not just a lieutenant.
Trouble is, that pretty much summed up Pete Carroll’s mandate in 1997. With Belichick, it’s pretty much wait and see.
If Belichick’s coaching career is a novel, the epilogue is soon over. Chapter One begins on Saturday.
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