After the football world watched Ashton Jeanty dominate at Boise State, everyone is expecting him to continue that dominance in the NFL with the Las Vegas Raiders. Sure, the league is a different level, full of elite athletes, but Jeanty is a special talent. That’s why NFL experts are already making bold predictions for the running back’s rookie season.
In a recent ESPN piece, a panel of analysts made bold predictions about the 2025 rookie class. Draft analyst Matt Miller predicted Jeanty will lead the league in rushing touchdowns— not just rookies, the entire NFL.
"Jeanty will lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns. Despite being a rookie on a team with low expectations, Jeanty will be force-fed the ball on an offense that doesn't have a solid RB2 behind him and lacks a game-breaking receiving talent. We should be looking at a 15-plus touchdown season."
Matt Miller (ESPN)
Ashton Jeanty predicted to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns as a rookie
In the last three seasons, 16 rushing touchdowns has led the league in each season. That’s roughly the number Jeanty will have to get to in year one with Vegas for Miller’s prediction to come true. History shows it will be tough, as only one rookie running back has ever rushed for more than 15 touchdowns: Eric Dickerson in 1983 when he scored 18 touchdowns on the ground. Even still, he didn’t lead the league in rushing touchdowns.
In recent years, the most productive rookie running back was Ezekiel Elliot back in 2016. He put up 15 rushing touchdowns, but like Dickerson, still fell short of the league leader.
Fittingly, the last running back to lead the league in rushing touchdowns as a rookie was Raiders running back Marcus Allen. Fresh off a Heisman season season at USC, Allen led the NFL with 11 rushing touchdowns in 1982. Jeanty was the Heisman runner up, but he’ll have the chance to add his name to the list of great Raiders’ running backs, and do something that hasn’t been done in over 40 years.
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