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Our FPL expert explains why Aston Villa, Chelsea and Brentford players are among the best transfers for Gameweek 37.
The finishing line is firmly in sight, and within a fortnight Fantasy Premier League bragging rights will be secured in mini-leagues up and down the land… but which players should you buy to ensure your success over the final two gameweeks?
Our resident FPL expert, owner of a Top 2,000 worldwide finish just last season, has been offering his FPL hints and tips all year and he’s back with his final advice column of the campaign to help you make the transfers that will win you your leagues and help you reach your goals.
Before we hand over to Matthew for his thoughts, it’s our duty to warn you that a pair of Friday evening kick-offs mean that it’s an early deadline for Gameweek 37, and you’ll need to make all your decisions by 18:00 BST on Friday 16 May. You’ll have plenty of time in Gameweek 38, at least, with all the games on at the same time and a cosy 14:30 BST deadline on Sunday 25 May to contend with. Good luck…
Why Aston Villa and Chelsea players could be perfect for the final FPL gameweeks
It’s nearly all over. Some people are on the pitch, the metaphorical Geoff Hurst is bearing down on the goal of Gameweek 38, and Fantasy Kenneth Wolstenholme is getting increasingly excited. But if you want to rattle the ball into the back of the German net of this increasingly strained introduction just like Hurst did back in 1966, you’re going to need to get your decisions bang on.
Last week, I discussed the importance of differentials and how to identify what you need to do to either stay ahead or play catch-up in your mini-leagues, and that advice will still be critical over the coming two weeks if you want to get ahead of your friends and colleagues – but if you need to make changes, which players should you target, and who can we expect to rack up the points in the closing two weeks?
The first thing I’d note is that when we get down to crunch time, success over the course of the season as a whole goes out of the window to a degree. Just look at Nottingham Forest – the kind of team we all wanted three players from for months, and now struggling with the finishing line in sight. Chris Wood’s points per game doesn’t matter now, only whether he’ll score against West Ham or Chelsea.
At this stage of the season, I always recommend targeting players who are red hot and whose teams are winning – while also targeting teams who are either playing poorly or who have other priorities outside of the league, regardless of whether you’d view them as ‘easy’ fixtures at other points of the calendar.
Admittedly, there’s nothing revolutionary about the idea of targeting flaky Manchester United and Spurs teams these days, but with the Europa League final a clear priority for both sides, I don’t expect much from either side on Friday. Aston Villa happen to play both teams, and I’m keen on getting some of their assets in, especially ahead of Gameweek 37.
Both Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins are in form and high on my wish list as a result. Marco Asensio’s recent barren run in front of goal (which started as soon as I signed him, with apologies to Villa fans for cursing him) makes him a riskier proposition, but at his price point he’s a good gamble to take, and while Villa’s defence has been pretty middling this season, I don’t mind taking a punt on Lucas Digne or Pau Torres at their values to pad out a squad.
The wildcard in all this logic is Chelsea. On the one hand, they play United and Forest, two teams that I am clearly advising you should target. On the other, they have a Europa Conference League final against Real Betis to worry about. I expect them to beat United at home on current form, but the final-day game against Nuno Espirito Santo’s side is a real wildcard.
All things considered, I’m leaning towards the belief that Cole Palmer is a great asset for the closing weeks, and probably better than Bukayo Saka given their two teams’ recent trajectories, and I like Pedro Neto a lot as a potential differential. At just 1.3% ownership, he’s played 90 minutes five times on the bounce in the Premier League and generating healthy numbers. If you need to take a punt, that’s one direction I’d go in.
Brentford assets still look great as Gameweek 38 nears
Last week, I also raved about Brentford assets as being ideal differentials, with both Yoane Wissa and Kevin Schade getting a mention – and that’s advice I stand by, with both players hitting the back of the net with regularity.
Brentford’s game against Fulham at home won’t be easy, but on current form one suspects that the Bees will still be in good shape for some goals – and Wolves, their final-day opponents, may be on the beach to a certain extent with little to play for. Sepp van den Berg is a nice budget-friendly defensive enabler available, too, although I don’t think their clean sheet chances are remarkably high.
As well as looking for teams and players that are up against out-of-form sides, it can also be worth targeting sides who have precious little to play for. Just think of how many points were on offer by targeting Crystal Palace at the end of the season back when Roy Hodgson was in charge. Those Palace squads were practically sipping margaritas in the centre circle once relegation had been staved off.
With European qualification set to go down to eighth in the table, of course, there are a lot of teams with at least some hope of a continental place – but I don’t mind attacking Wolves, Everton, West Ham and maybe even Palace once more, although they’re unbeaten in four and finished strongly under Oliver Glasner last year.
Sadly, no team plays two teams from that short list, but as well as helping to make Brentford assets attractive, such fixtures also make me wonder if there isn’t extra value in Newcastle players (an out-of-sorts Arsenal followed by Everton at home) and makes me less interested in West Ham players (just Jarrod Bowen, if we’re honest) despite them playing Forest and Ipswich to finish. Even if Bowen continues his fine form, his team-mates may not be going at it hammers and tongs. I’m not discounting Bowen, by any means, but he’s below, say, Bryan Mbeumo on my target list.
As for your captain’s armband for the final weeks, we’re back to differential theory. Teams who are in a strong spot should probably just go for Mohamed Salah twice in a row, while others should look at players not owned by their opponents, whether that be a Palmer, an Mbeumo or even a Watkins.
The most important thing to remember is that if you aren’t meant to gamble, then don’t, and if you’re behind and need to find some points fast, don’t be afraid to take chances. If you’re trying to make up a 10-point gap in two weeks, you don’t need to go wild, but if it’s more like 30 or 40, then it’s time to get a little crazy. Under those circumstances, giving the captaincy to Rogers, Bowen, or someone else normally off the list is not only defensible but probably necessary.
That’s all from me this season – I’m off on holiday and plan to spend the final week of a long FPL campaign like I’m a Palace player preparing the last match of the year circa 2019. Best of luck to all of you over the final weeks of the season, and I hope my hints and tips have been helpful for the past ten months. See you all in August…
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