CLEVELAND, Ohio — While NFL analysts debate strength of schedule and roster moves, the latest Orange and Brown Talk podcast highlighted a sobering reality about the modern NFL: success often hinges on factors completely beyond a team’s control.
“Yeah, luck plays a big role in whether or not you’re making the playoffs,” veteran Browns reporter Mary Kay Cabot declared on the podcast. “Luck has a lot to do with it. And of course, in the NFL these days, in my mind, it really is a game of attrition, who is still standing by the time that you get to the end of the season.”
This perspective emerged during a discussion about the Browns’ challenging 2024 schedule, but quickly evolved into a broader conversation about how the unpredictable nature of injuries and timing can render preseason projections meaningless.
“So much of it depends on injuries and are you catching a break during that particular week or whatever the case may be,” Cabot explained, before pivoting to how this factor actually benefited Cleveland in 2023.
The Browns’ playoff run that season provides a perfect case study. Cabot listed several instances where Cleveland benefited from opponent injuries: “C.J. Stroud missing the game on Christmas Eve and having Case Keenum start that game against Joe Flacco instead of CJ Stroud... Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel both getting injured in that 49ers game... Trevor Lawrence suffering a horrible high ankle sprain six days before he played the Cleveland Browns.”
She concluded: “There were just a lot of things that happened that took the edge off some of those games.”
Dan Labbe concurred with this assessment: “Sometimes it does just come down to who’s hurt for how long, what’s the weather... the wrong guy gets hurt and it just changes everything.”
This reality creates a sobering paradox for fans and analysts – teams spend millions on talent and scheme development, yet random injury luck can ultimately determine a season’s outcome. It’s a factor that makes the NFL both frustrating and compelling.
The podcast hosts expressed particular concern about how league policies might be exacerbating this problem. As the NFL considers expanding to an 18-game schedule, both voiced alarm about player health.
“Now you’re going to add another game, you’re going to add more reps where... there’s the potential for a guy to get hurt,” Labbe noted. “Sports more and more, really is becoming a battle of attrition. But football, it’s just to a whole nother level.”
Cabot added a particularly disturbing observation about modern player physiques: “These guys are so much bigger, faster, stronger than they were back in the day. So you’re having these violent, violent collisions... That’s so unfortunate. But there are a lot of injuries like that that are happening these days because of just the sheer absolute physicality of the game.”
For Browns fans, this means tempering expectations about the upcoming season, regardless of how talented the roster appears. With a difficult schedule ahead and the ever-present specter of injuries, success may ultimately depend on factors beyond anyone’s control.
The attrition discussion adds crucial context to any Browns season preview. Whether they can navigate their challenging schedule will depend not just on talent and coaching, but on the cruel lottery of which key players remain healthy.
Want more insights on how the Browns are approaching this critical aspect of NFL success? Listen to the full Orange and Brown Talk podcast episode for a deeper dive into the role of luck and attrition in determining playoff contenders.
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Note: Artificial intelligence was used to help generate this story from the Cleveland Orange and Brown Talk Podcast by cleveland.com. Visitors to cleveland.com have asked for more text stories based on website podcast discussions.