The last time Enzo Maresca had to pick a Chelsea team without Nicolas Jackson, it took him three defeats to find an adequate remedy. The solution, it seemed, was to play against relegation candidates.
Between Jackson being injured on transfer deadline day (February 3) against West Ham and his return to the team on April 6, Chelsea played nine games in all competitions and, putting it brutally, lost to the good teams and beat the bad ones. They were beaten by Brighton (twice), Arsenal, and Aston Villa, but did win against Southampton, Leicester City, Tottenham, and FC Copenhagen (twice).
The contrast is stark. In that time they got nothing from those now sitting second, sixth, and ninth but were fine with the 20th, 19th, and 17th place sides.
Chelsea and Maresca cannot afford to make the mistakes of three months ago again. They have two league games to go and know that anything but six points will leave them open to dropping out of the top five. That would not be catastrophic for Maresca's future but it might be for his relationship with supporters, which has only just begun to be repaired after a sharp downturn throughout 2025.
Not qualifying for the Champions League will be seen as a marked failure, but pretty much everyone except the higher-ups at Chelsea. There is mitigation along the way for going from second on Boxing Day to being the eighth best team this calendar year but it will not be acceptable for most.
If Maresca wants to avoid these awkward conversations and pressure on his spot as head coach from outside the club, then the task is simple: Beat Manchester United and Nottingham Forest.
Doing it without Jackson - who misses both games due to suspension after being sent off against Newcastle United on Sunday - is an added challenge ahead of two banana skin games rather than seriously daunting ones. United are no genuine threat right now as they look towards the Europa League final next week and Forest are exhausted.
Neither game promises to be easy, though, especially without an orthodox No.9. When Maresca turned to Christopher Nkunku in the Brighton double-header it had terrible consequences, not least because his Jackson replacement was neither willing to run in behind or press.
Nkunku looked disinterested after his failed January transfer and nothing he has done since has changed that perception. Instead, Maresca turned to Pedro Neto.
Signed for £54million as a winger, he was a much more lively option despite rarely playing there before, and stretched opposition defences in a way that Nkunku and Cole Palmer (also used as a false nine briefly) never bothered to.
Chelsea's improvement with Neto centrally did coincide with the easier run of games but the performances were also better in general. Away to Arsenal was a reversion to previous flat displays but is also understandable given the serious lack of pace or penetration available to Maresca with Noni Madueke also injured and Palmer out.
Maresca has had his side playing more directly and with more intent of late compared to games before the Jacksonless run earlier in the season. Chelsea had already begun to hit a wall with passive build-up play and slow football. It saw them draw to Everton, Crystal Palace, and Bournemouth, losing to Fulham, Ipswich Town, and Manchester City in the space of four weeks.
That put a break on the season before Jackson's injury threatened to totally derail it. By hook or by crook, Chelsea have gotten through and remain very much in the hunt with 180 minutes of scheduled football to play.
They are in a better flow than in January, which will offer hope that some of the incisive play from games against Liverpool and the first half with Everton (also late on at Fulham) can be transferred into a system without a striker. The reality is that Maresca has very little choice.
If it is not Neto up front, then it will surely be Tyrique George, who has played the role in parts in the Conference League and as a substitute. Outside of that there is not much to play with.
(Image: Getty Images)
Palmer will surely not be move there, neither will Jadon Sancho or Noni Madueke. Marc Guiu has not started a Premier League game and has looked incredibly raw in the Conference League, never truly showing that he is ready for top-level minutes yet. He is also returning from injury and has not trained with his teammates ahead of the United game.
Shumaira Mheuka is the teenager bolter who does actually play as a striker and is fit but he is so young that it would be an enormous gamble to throw him in when the stakes are so high. And so we are left with Neto, the logical choice and the most likely one.
For two games, Chelsea and Maresca need to make it work. The good news is that against teams of United's quality, they have been able to this season. The bad news is that Forest might be a different question on the final day.
Either way, Chelsea will not enter next season leaving themselves open to such a scenario. The club are determined to buy a new striker to compete with Jackson and improve the squad.
Just who that figure is remains to be seen. Victor Osimhen, Viktor Gyokeres, Liam Delap, and Benjamin Sesko are all big targets. Hugo Ekitike has also been linked with a transfer. One way or another, Chelsea will have to get themselves into a position to be able to lure one of these names to the club.
Doing that may well require Champions League, not just for financial reasons but also to create a compelling pitch for joining them rather than their rivals. That is a lot to put on Neto's shoulders but it is where Chelsea have ended up. Unlike last time, there is no room for a slow start.
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Chelsea flag prior the UEFA Champions League Quarter Final Leg One match between Chelsea FC and Real Madrid at Stamford Bridge. (Photo by Jose Breton/Pics Action/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
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