LAS VEGAS — Can Kansas City’s exceptional fortune continue for a sixth consecutive season?
Some say that prosperous run expired Feb. 9 in New Orleans, where the Eagles smashed the Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX.
According to stat-based Pythagorean extrapolations, the Chiefs (17-3) accumulated 5.2 more victories than they deserved because of favorable bounces and certain whistles, or non-calls, by officials.
Moreover, the Chiefs’ luck factor since 2020, OddsBreakers handicapper Kiev O’Neil said, “easily is tops in the league.”
He espouses “pythag” theories, charts them annually and documents that Kansas City was No. 1 in 2020, second in ’22 and seventh in ’23.
Not so coincidentally, the Chiefs are 37-13 in one-score games, decided by eight points or fewer, since ’20, a stretch in which they’re an NFL-best 79-21 overall. K.C. moneyline action has been a gold mine.
Until now. O’Neil believes the Chiefs’ lucky run begins fizzling. Among his early team-win plays, he bet Chiefs under 11.5 at -120, or risk $120 to win $100.
“Massive regression coming,” O’Neil said, “with an aging team.”
### Chasing value
O’Neil also bought Chargers over 9.5 (-110), trumpeting coach Jim Harbaugh, and Saints under 6.5 (-165).
(Odds and prices are subject to change.)
“The fourth-place schedule is much harder, with the 49ers and Bears there,” O’Neil said of the Saints, “and \[quarterback Derek\] Carr retired.”
To poach post-draft/pre-camp win-totals value, I tapped a select group of ’cappers whose advice I heeded last year to go 4-0 in such action.
(I hit both Raiders under 6.5 (+100) and Panthers under 5.5 (+100), plus double-unit action on 49ers under 11.5 (-140) and Patriots under 5 (-130).)
All unders, since certain experts have convinced me how it’s wiser to wager on something to not happen rather than on something occurring. Too much can go wrong, they opine, and usually does.
Plus, the public often favors over, creating advantages. For instance, DraftKings opened its totals two months ago with numbers nearly mirroring the actual amount of NFL victories that will happen this season.
By Monday, though, bets have pumped those totals up 10 triumphs. Totals on the Browns (to 6.5) and Giants, Jets and Titans (all to 7.5) have each been boosted by two games.
DK director of sportsbook operations Johnny Avello told me prices reflect those changes. For instance, Jets under 5.5 (+125) is now under 7.5 (-250).
“The public absolutely loves overs,” Long Island handicapper Tom Barton said, “because they’re betting ‘their’ team.”
### Mile-high regression?
Matt Youmans, senior broadcaster/writer for the Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN) who went 7-0 on totals in ’24, has bought Saints under 6.5 (-155) and Steelers over 8.5 (+110).
The 5-12 Saints were one of 10 teams to finish last season with five victories or fewer, Youmans notes, and he envisions scant improvement with rookie coach Kellen Moore and questionable quarterbacks.
Youmans touts Steelers coach Mike Tomlin’s sterling track record and Pittsburgh’s offseason moves, and he pegs it as quarterback Aaron Rodgers’s next landing spot.
“He probably has one decent year left in him,” Youmans said. “Rodgers stunk last year, and he’s a diva with baggage. But he should be in better shape, and this is his last shot.”
In Boston, BetMGM’s “Bet Sweats” co-host Sam Panayotovich has Chargers over 9.5 (+110), on an improved quarterback in Justin Herbert, the drafting of tailback Omarion Hampton and a stalwart offensive line, and Broncos under 8.5 (-125).
“Everything broke right for Denver last year, and it won 10 games,” Panayotovich said. “I expect regression there.”
Barton got in early on Giants over 5.5 (+125), favoring an elite pass-rushing front line. He hopes Bengals 10 and Niners 11 both rise, aiming to play both under.
### Think craps
Former UNLV quarterback Jon Denton was raised in Vegas, is a family man in Iowa and fares well betting sports, especially football. He also knows casinos.
He knows books know the psyche of their clientele, 80% of who, Denton said, “are there for a good time. Think about craps. Your odds of winning are better if you bet ‘Don’t Pass,’ but who wants to be ‘that guy’ at the table?”
Denton likes Raiders over 6.5 (-145), as owner Mark Davis has deigned more power to minority owner Tom Brady in luring coach Pete Carroll and Geno Smith, a “drastic upgrade” at quarterback.
“What a difference from this time last year,” Denton says. “New regime. New QB. Running game should be effective. Defensively, they are top-third in the league. I think they get to this total.”
He’s also on Lions, 15-3 last season but now without offensive coordinator Ben Johnson (Bears’ head coach) and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn (Jets’ head coach), over 10.5 (-110).
“I expect regression, but there’s cushion in that five-win drop from last year,” Denton says. “An elite offensive line, healthy defense. \[Is losing both\] coordinators worth five wins? Favorable division, too.”
### In sum
Based on these opinions, on Tuesday at the Westgate SuperBook I bought Chiefs under 11.5 (-130), Saints under 5.5 (-120), Broncos under 9 (+110) and Bengals under 10 (-120).
Via Denton’s cue, I grabbed Bears under 8.5 (-110). Faults and flaws, under another new regime with a first-time head coach, will be understandable if not expected. The Bears’ “pythag” projection is 6.7; another comfortable cushion.
All under action. Hopefully my luck, unlike the Chiefs’, continues.