Chelsea are battling Aston Villa and others for a Champions League spotChelsea are battling Aston Villa and others for a Champions League spot
Chelsea are battling Aston Villa and others for a Champions League spot | Getty Images
Chelsea are in an intense battle for a Champions League spot, facing Manchester United on Friday night.
The Blues realistically need two wins to get the job done, with plenty of teams involved in the battle for the three remaining Champions League spots. Here we round up what could happen this weekend.
The scenario and top five permutations
As things stand, Newcastle are in third place with 66 points, one point ahead of Manchester City in fourth. Chelsea are in fifth with 63 points, goal difference ahead of Aston Villa and one point ahead of Nottingham Forest.
In terms of what could happen this weekend, Chelsea cannot officially wrap up fifth place, but they can all-but secure the position by beating Manchester United while seeing Aston Villa losing to Tottenham and Forest failing to win against West Ham. In the scenario Villa lose and Forest draw, Chelsea would be three points ahead of each of Villa and Forest with one game to go, also holding a goal difference advantage of at least eight over Forest and at least 13 over Villa. If Forest lose, they would be four points behind Chelsea with one game remaining, ruling them out of the race.
Any other scenario would keep fifth place in play. Even if Chelsea lose and Aston Villa win, the Blues would stay in the race because of their superior goal difference, but the Blues would need to beat Forest on the last day and hope Villa lose. The same goes for a Chelsea draw and a Villa win on Friday night. The permutations involving Forest are not worth complicating because Chelsea face them on the final day, meaning they are guaranteed the opportunity to move or stay above the East Midlands side by beating them on the final day regardless of results this weekend.
Chelsea can, of course, finish higher than fifth, but with that position the lowest possible position they can finish to reach the Champions League, it’s worth concentrating on solely that position. Moving up the table is also a little more complicated because Manchester City don’t play until Tuesday night due to their FA Cup final with Crystal Palace on Saturday.
Predicted final Premier League table
The predicted final Premier League table suggests Chelsea will miss out on the Champions League. OPTA’s model puts Newcastle in third with 69 points and Manchester city in fourth with 68 points.
Below those two, Aston Villa are being tipped to secure the final Champions League spot, in fifth with 66 points. Chelsea are expected to miss out on fifth, also with an expected total of 66 points, but they are deemed less likely to get to that total than the Midlands club.
Nottingham Forest are expected to finish in seventh place with 64 points.
The remaining fixtures
Here are the remaining fixtures for the five teams battling for those all-important three remaining Champions League spots.
Chelsea: Man Utd (H), Nottingham Forest (A).
Man City: Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A).
Nottingham Forest: West Ham (A), Chelsea (H).
Aston Villa: Tottenham Hotspur (H), Man Utd (A).
Enzo Maresca’s view
Speaking about Chelsea’s Champions League race in his pre-match press conference ahead of the Man Utd game, Maresca has said: "Since day one I said that the target the club gives to me was in two years we want to play in the Champions League. OK? Since day one. But when you arrive to March and you are in all of the season in the top four or top five, it's natural that the target is to finish in the Champions League.
"So the reason why it changed from the beginning is because we arrived to March - the international break - that we were there all season. So it is normal then that the target becomes to finish in the top four or five. What changed is that we have been there all season, so the target automatically becomes finishing in the top four or five. I said many times already that we have had a good season, that can become a very good season if we are able to finish top five and also if we are able to win the Conference League."
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