The NBA just wrapped up the 2025 Draft Lottery, which saw a lot of people questioning the integrity of the lottery with the Dallas Mavericks getting the No. 1 overall pick, despite having 1.8% odds to do so. Since Monday’s ping pong picks, the NFL realm has talked about the possibility of introducing a lottery, given that the league is the only one of the four major professional sports leagues in North America to not have one.
If the NFL added a draft lottery, would it be a good thing for the Denver Broncos?
The Broncos are just one of three teams who have never had the worst record in the league (and lost the ensuing tiebreakers) and picked first overall. The Baltimore Ravens and Seattle Seahawks are the only other two franchises to not have done so.
This past season, the lottery obviously wouldn’t have had any affect on the Broncos since they made the playoff, and would’ve still had the No. 20 overall pick with or without a lottery. What about in the years prior in which the Broncos were on the couch in the postseason?
Simulated lottery odds will be used for this, with a 20-team lottery being in play up until 2020, when the league expanded the playoff format to 14 teams. After that, it will be an 18-team lottery.
2016 Broncos: 20th-worst record, 0.5% chance at No. 1
The 2016 Broncos went 9-7 and narrowly missed the playoffs. The Titans and Buccaneers also finished with 9-7 records that year, and owned the draft-friendly tiebreakers over the Broncos, making Denver the 20th-worst team in the league. They would’ve had a 97.7% chance to end up with the 18th pick, a 0.5% chance to snag the top pick.
The Broncos drafted 20th and selected Garrett Bolles, so likely no change.
2017 Broncos: Fifth-worst record, 10.2% chance at No. 1
The 2017 Broncos were a disappointment, finishing the season with a 5-11 record and the No. 5 overall pick in the ensuing draft. If a lottery was in place, they would’ve had roughly a 41% chance to pick in the top-four, but a 27.8% chance to pick seventh. Denver took Bradley Chubb with the fifth pick, but could’ve had a shot at Saquon Barkley if things panned out in their favor.
2018 Broncos: 10th-worst record, 2.9% chance at No. 1
The 2018 Broncos finished the year 6-10 and traded the No. 1o overall pick to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Denver would’ve had an 83% chance to pick 10th or 11th that year, with about a 13% chance of falling anywhere in the top-four. The top picks of that draft were fairly disappointing, with Kyler Murray and Nick Bosa being the only solid picks in hindsight.
2019 Broncos: 15th-worst record, 0.5% chance at No. 1
Denver selected Jerry Jeudy with the 15th overall pick in the draft following the 2019 season. With a 2.3% chance of landing in the top-four and an 86.7% chance of staying at 15, nothing would have likely changed for Denver if a lottery was in place that season. Picking in the top-four would’ve been good for them that year, as Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert were both on the board.
2020 Broncos: Ninth-worst record, 4.4% chance at No. 1
The Broncos had the ninth pick in the 2021 NFL Draft following a lousy, 5-11 campaign in 2020. They ended up with Pat Surtain II in that draft, who has arguably turned out to be the best player in that class besides Ja’Marr Chase of Cincinnati. Denver would’ve had 46% odds to stay at the No. 9 pick, with a 19.7% chance to sneak into the top-four. A lottery might have hurt them this year, because if they dropped past No. 9, Surtain would’ve been off the board. If they made the top-four, they might’ve gone a different route.
2021 Broncos: Ninth-worst record, 4.4% chance at No. 1
The Broncos didn’t have a selection in the 2022 draft after a poor 2021 season due to the Russell Wilson trade. The odds for their pick that Seattle would’ve been the exact same as the season prior. The only good pick in the top four was Aidan Hutchinson, and Seattle opted to go with offensive tackle Charles Cross at No. 9.
2022 Broncos: Fifth-worst record, 10.3% chance at No. 1
Seattle picked fifth in this draft in place of Denver, once again as a casualty from the Wilson trade. With a lottery, they only would’ve had a 2% chance for the No. 5 pick, as the lottery would’ve given them a 41% chance to be in the top-four and a 46% chance to be sixth or seventh.
Again, because of the trade, no effects on Denver.
2023 Broncos: 12th-worst record, 1.5% chance at No. 1
The Broncos would’ve had a 94% chance to pick 12th or 13th in this Draft, with a 7% chance of getting in the top-four. They obviously made a good pick with Bo Nix, but could’ve had Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams if that 7% hit. There was a 14.2% chance of them sliding down to No. 13, which could’ve caused them to miss out on Nix and have to look elsewhere with the pick. This is arguably the year that would’ve been impacted most by a lottery.
Would the lottery ever have had a massive effect on Denver? Probably not. It would’ve been interesting, however, if they did get a lucky roll like the Dallas Mavericks did earlier this week and ended up with an elite pick. There’s been lots of talk this week about whether or not the NFL should introduce a lottery, but the league’s drafting system has worked fine for so long, so why change it?
As seen in the NBA, certain team like the Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards keep getting jipped by the lottery and are stuck in a cycle of losing. Meanwhile, NFL teams with top picks have shown an ability to get back to winning, like the Bengals with Joe Burrow and the Commanders with Jayden Daniels. The NFL has it right, and should not introduce a lottery system.