C.J. Stroud
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KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JANUARY 18: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans hikes the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second quarter in the AFC Divisional Playoff at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on January 18, 2025 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Before the 2024 season, ESPN NFL Nation predicted the Houston Texans to win 9.6 games. They satisfied that projection by winning ten games, enough to claim their second consecutive AFC South division title and eighth since the franchise started in 2002.
A year later, ESPN’s Mike Clay predicts the Texans will win the same number of regular-season games. In his stat projections for all 32 teams, he predicted the Texans to win 9.7 games or 10 when rounded off. Clay based this number on Houston’s 13th-ranked strength of schedule.
Based on the Texans’ 2025 schedule, Clay sees the Texans winning road games against the Jacksonville Jaguars (Week 3), the Tennessee Titans (Week 11), and the Indianapolis Colts (Week 13). Meanwhile, Clay predicts that Houston will win at home versus the Titans (Week 4), the San Francisco 49ers (Week 8), the Jaguars (Week 10), the Arizona Cardinals (Week 15), the Las Vegas Raiders (Week 16), and the Colts (Week 18).
Meanwhile, Clay gave the Texans a low chance of winning three games. He gave a 29 percent probability in Houston winning their Week 5 road game against the Baltimore Ravens. Clay also calculated a 41-percent chance in the Texans’ Week 12 home game against the Buffalo Bills. He also chalked up a loss in Week 14 versus the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
Stat Predictions for Texans Offense
Last season, the Texans ranked 22nd in total yards (319.7) and 21st in passing yards (207.4) per game. Clay sees third-year quarterback C.J. Stroud, projecting him to finish with 326 completions for 3,885 passing yards and 21 touchdowns in 15 games. Those are slight improvements from his 3,727 yards and 20 touchdowns from 2024.
Meanwhile, Clay gave the running back rotation the highest grade (8) among the Texans’ offensive position groups. He projected Joe Mixon to register 965 rushing yards and ten touchdowns, and rookie Woody Marks to have 457 yards and three touchdowns.
As for the wide receivers, Clay projected Jayden Higgins to have an immediate impact with 53 catches for 723 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Meanwhile, Nico Collins remains Houston’s top wideout with stat projections of 87 receptions for 1,183 yards and seven touchdowns.
Finally, Dalton Schultz is still the Texans’ primary tight end with projections of 522 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Projections for Houston’s Defense
The Texans finished the 2024 season with 49 sacks, tied for fourth-most with the Minnesota Vikings. However, Clay sees the 2025 squad finishing with 43 sacks, with the edge rushers generating the most at 26.8.
Out of that number, Clay projects Will Anderson Jr. to have 10.1 sacks in 724 snaps, while Danielle Hunter collects 9.8 sacks from 788 snaps. Despite the reduced prediction, Clay gave the Texans’ edge rushers group an impressive 9 grade.
Meanwhile, Clay’s projections show Azeez Al-Shaair finishing 15th in tackles with 137, to go with two sacks. That would be his second-most tackles in seven NFL seasons, granted that he won’t face any suspensions.
Likewise, he gave Houston’s defensive secondary an average grade of 8.5, thanks largely to Derek Stingley Jr. (projected stats: 62 tackles, 2.7 interceptions), Jalen Pitre (96 tackles, 2.5 sacks), and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (69 tackles, 2.6 interceptions).
Clay projects the Houston defense as the third-best unit in the league behind the Detroit Lions and the Pittsburgh Steelers. That’s a far cry from the Texans offense’s 21st rating for an overall ranking of 14th.