The Betfair Exchange is on track to break wagering records for the Eurovision Song Contest 2025, with betting volumes expected to match those seen in global sporting spectacles like the Super Bowl and heavyweight title fights.
This year’s Grand Final takes place in Basel, Switzerland, with Betfair having already traded £2m on its winner market. The Exchange expects the figure to surpass £10m by Saturday night, eclipsing previous Eurovision records and placing the song contest in the same betting league as the Super Bowl LIX moneyline market in February.
SBC News Betfair: No Novelty… Eurovision will outmatch Super Bowl wagering
Sam Rosbottom: Betfair
“The Eurovision Final is here, and what’s always a great night of music is also a very popular betting event,” Sam Rosbottom, told SBC.
“We’re anticipating as much as £10m could be wagered on the competition, which would make this a bigger market than the recent heavyweight boxing bout between Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk.”
Sweden leads Jury’s choice
At the centre of the betting activity isKAJ, a Finnish-Swedish trio representing Sweden with their catchy and comedic track“Bara Bada Bastu” (“Just Take A Sauna”).
Betfair places Sweden as the even-money favourite, having attracted 43% of total bets on the Exchange. Notably, the country was backed at odds as high as 15/1 earlier in the season before steadily shortening to its current position.
On the heels of the Swedish trio are Austria (7/2), France (10/1), and the Netherlands (23/1) round out the top tier of likely winners. Meanwhile, Finland and Israel are longer shots at 27/1 and 47/1 respectively, with Switzerland and Estonia further adrift.
Sweden’s dominance at Eurovision is well-established, having secured seven wins to date. A victory in Basel would see it break the all-time record jointly held with Ireland — a narrative that is not lost on Eurovision enthusiasts or punters.
Yet in recent years, the jury’s vote in the Final has often been overturned by the public vote, making Eurovision one of the most unpredictable markets to price-up and providing great value for audiences…
Ireland’s exit is a low key blow
Contrasting Sweden’s rise has been Ireland’s departure in the semi-finals, a notable disappointment for fans of the contest’s joint most successful nation. The failure to reach the final again reflects Ireland’s recent Eurovision struggles.
Ireland once again fell short at the semi-final stage, as EMMY’s entry “Laika Party” failed to secure enough public votes to progress. It marks the second year in a row that Ireland has missed out on the Grand Final, much to the disappointment of Betfair’s loyal base of Irish pop fans.
UK’s underdog status remains
The UK’s entry, Remember Monday, will appear in Saturday’s final by virtue of the country’s Big Five status. Despite a strong vocal performance and favourable reviews from BBC hosts Graham Norton and Scott Mills, Betfair currently lists the UK at odds of 199/1 to win — a clear signal of low market confidence.
Furthermore, the UK is priced at 12/5 to finish last, with Norway (7/2) and Iceland (15/2) also tipped for bottom positions. Nevertheless, public sentiment tells a more nuanced story.
“Despite being outsiders, the public haven’t lost faith in Remember Monday,” noted William Hill’s Lee Phelps, citing strong bet volumes. Betfair too reported that the UK has attracted the second-highest number of individual bets, even if most are for small stakes.
No Novelty Act
While Eurovision was once dismissed as kitsch television, Betfair’s data reflects its maturation into a serious market mover. With annual growth in liquidity and international participation, the contest is now the platform’s “biggest entertainment market by far,” according to Rosbottom.
“Punters have a great record of picking the winner too, with four of the pre-competition favourites going on to win in the last five editions of the singing contest,” he said. “Last year, Switzerland were the third favourites and overcame odds of 8/1 to win.”
The trend of early market signals proving accurate has strengthened Eurovision’s appeal to seasoned punters, who now treat it with the same analytical focus once reserved for sport.
As the Grand Final nears, Betfair is poised for one of its busiest nights of the year. The convergence of entertainment, geopolitics, novelty, and national pride makes Eurovision a unique proposition for operators and audiences alike.