As the Buffalo Bills gear up for the 2025 NFL season, their schedule presents a unique dynamic with a front-loaded AFC East divisional slate. With four of their six AFC East games packed into the first 10 weeks, including three in the opening five weeks, the Bills face a critical early stretch that could shape their pursuit of a sixth consecutive division title.
Looking at the 2025 schedule details, and focusing on the divisional battles, today I’ll explore the advantages and disadvantages of this early divisional gauntlet and its potential impact on Buffalo’s season.
The 2025 Schedule: AFC East Games Up Front
The Bills’ early divisional matchups:
The front-heavy divisional schedule contrasts with the Bills’ later weeks, where only two AFC East games (Week 15 at New England, and Week 18 hosting the Jets) remains. The bulk of these games being very early, particularly the first three in five weeks, sets the stage for a high-stakes opening act for Buffalo’s 2025 campaign.
Advantages of a front-loaded AFC East schedule
Syndication: Democrat and Chronicle Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Early momentum in the division
A strong start against AFC East foes could give the Bills a commanding lead in the division race. With four divisional games before mid-November, Buffalo has a chance to take the divisional lead and never look back. The Bills have dominated the AFC East, winning five straight titles.
Last season’s 13-4 record showed Buffalo’s ability to handle divisional opponents decisively. Sweeping or winning most of these early games could demoralize the Dolphins, Jets, and Patriots — all of which are projected to be less competitive than Buffalo this season.
Favorable early matchups
The Bills’ early AFC East opponents face their own challenges. The Jets, with a new head coach and general manager, are in transition and may struggle to gel early. Miami’s offense hinges on quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s health, but also on Tyreek Hill’s big-play ability at wide receiver. If the first shouldn’t be a big problem for them early in the season, the latter is a big question mark, with Hill consistently facing off-field problems and already stating his wish to leave the team.
New England, which should look improved under Mike Vrabel, relies on young quarterback Drake Maye, who is likely not yet ready to out-duel Josh Allen. Buffalo’s continuity, with an intact offensive line and Allen’s MVP-caliber play, plus the punctual additions via free agency and draft, positions them to exploit these vulnerabilities.
Late-season flexibility
With only two divisional games after Week 10, the Bills can focus on tougher non-divisional opponents like the Kansas City Chiefs (Week 9), Philadelphia Eagles (Week 17), and AFC North teams later in the season. A secured divisional lead by midseason could allow Buffalo to take on New England in Week 15 without much of a battle for the division left.
The Bills could also rest starters in Week 18 against the Jets if the AFC East is locked up, and if the AFC’s one seed is already secured or out of reach. With an early Bye (Week 7), reserving energy for a playoff push and counting on a second bye in Week 18 might be critical for the team’s success.
Home-field advantage early
Two of the first three AFC East games (Miami in Week 3 and New England in Week 5) are at Highmark Stadium, where Buffalo was unbeaten last season, with Bills Mafia creating an awesome atmosphere. Early home games could help Buffalo capitalize on crowd energy and good weather, particularly in the September and October matchups.
Disadvantages of a front-loaded AFC East schedule
NFL: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
Early pressure and lack of rhythm
Playing four divisional games in 10 weeks, including a short-week Thursday night game in Week 3, leaves little room for error. Divisional games are always intense, and a stumble — such as an upset by the Jets or a resurgent Patriots — could put Buffalo in an early hole. The quick turnaround for the Dolphins game on Thursday Night Football after a road trip to New York could make the preparation tricky, especially if injuries emerge early.
Improved divisional rivals
While the Bills are favored, their AFC East rivals have seemingly made strides. New England’s offseason overhaul, including Vrabel’s leadership and a strong draft class, makes them a potential Wild Card threat. Miami’s draft picks, like defensive tackle Kenneth Grant, aim to bolster their physicality, a big-time weakness exploited by the Bills in the recent matchups. The Jets could be unpredictable with new coaching and quarterback Justin Fields. If these teams start fast, Buffalo’s divisional dominance could be tested.
Late-season vulnerability
The two late divisional games, in Week 15 at New England and then in Week 18 versus the Jets, could become crucial. If the Patriots, led by Maye, improve as the season progresses, they might pose a significant challenge in Foxborough, especially if Buffalo is banged up from a tough two-game stretch against AFC North teams.
A loss here could complicate tiebreakers if the division race tightens. If that’s the case, the Week 18 game versus the Jets could become a win-or-go-home situation. That’s a scenario no one’s taking too seriously right now, but which could become reality in if the divisional title isn’t secured. The battle for AFC Wild Card spots has been challenging recently.
Final thoughts
Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots Photo by Rich Gagnon/Getty Images
The front-loaded AFC East schedule is a double-edged sword. To maximize the advantages, the Bills must lean on their basics, executing on both sides of the ball with minimal mistakes, and obviously counting on Josh Allen’s elite play and head coach Sean McDermott’s steady leadership to secure early wins.
Allen, the reigning MVP, is the X-factor, capable of carrying a young and still-unproven receiving corps. The run game's success also eases the burden. However, McDermott’s history of questionable decisions in big games raises concerns about navigating this early gauntlet flawlessly. If he can do it, it might be a good sign toward envisioning the playoffs ahead.
With the toughest opponents as home games, Buffalo must avoid complacency. Those teams certainly can beat the Bills on their home field, which would make the supposed easier away games, and especially the divisional games, trickier.
Underestimating improved rivals like New England could mean trouble. The Bills’ favorable overall schedule (fifth-easiest per Sharp Football Analysis) provides a sense of tranquility, but divisional losses could erase that edge, especially with tiebreakers looming.
The Bills’ front-loaded AFC East schedule in 2025 offers a golden opportunity to cement their divisional dominance early, taking advantage of their talent, home-field advantage, and rivals’ uncertainties. However, the intensity of early divisional games, combined with the risk of upsets, demands precision and resilience.
If Buffalo can navigate this early gauntlet with a 3-1 or 4-0 divisional record, they’ll be well-positioned for another AFC East crown and a deep playoff run. But any missteps could give revitalized rivals hope, making the opening weeks an important chapter in the Bills’ road to Super Bowl LX.
Catch up on all this and more with the latest edition of Leading the Charge!