The draft is the best time of the year for many reasons. Everyone has optimism about next season. Everyone talks themselves into draft picks with hours of Youtube highlights. But now that we are a few weeks out from the draft, the downers are coming onto the scene. "Don't expect much from rookies this year, " they say. "The Bears picks usually aren't good until they play for a different team," they remember.
That's why it's time to talk about breakout players in the North. Specifically, I will talk about first-round picks from last year from each of the three inferior NFC North teams. Each of these three was disappointing in one way or another but is far more likely to break out and impact the team in a big way than the draft picks from 2025.
Bears - Rome Odunze
Here's what NFL.com said about Odunze in its draft profile:
Odunze consistently dominated his competition. While most receivers look to open separation windows with speed or route running, Odunze seems to relish jump balls and contested catches. He shines in all aspects of ball skills, including positioning, body control, hand strength, timing and mid-air adjustments.
Going 9th overall, you'd expect Odunze to come out with a bang. Instead, he had the sixth most receiving yards among rookies. Behind second-round pick Ladd McConkey and a tight end. He had 734 yards and just three TDs while playing in every game.
The obvious response is that Odunze played in a bad offense, coached by bad coaches with a rookie QB who wasn't ready. And that's all true. Odunze had the 73rd best receiver grade per PFF so some kind of breakout from that rank is inevitable in an offense coached by adults.
Odunze also possesses the ability to block and do the dirty work that Ben Johnson requires while also getting open downfield on Caleb Williams scramble drills. I wouldn't be shocked to see 1,000 yards from him this year.
Vikings - Dallas Turner
Here's what NFL.com said:
Long and athletic with the explosive traits needed to become an impactful NFL pass rusher. Turner’s first-step quickness and elite closing burst are important building blocks, but he still needs to work on his process from Point A to Point B...Turner’s frame and game are much less developed than Will Anderson Jr.’s coming out of Alabama last year, so it could take time for him to make his mark as a starting 3-4 outside linebacker.
Turner's rookie year performance was the most shocking to me. He had three sacks, three TFLs and just 12 solo tackles on the season. He had the 105th most snaps among edge rushers in the NFL and the 90th-best grade. After the Vikings traded back into the first to take him, I thought for sure he'd be an impact player.
Lance Zierlein had it right in his NFL.com profile. Turner just wasn't ready. Add that to the great play the Vikings got out of Andrew van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard ahead of him and it just didn't make sense for him to play more. I'm sure at his size he was worn down by the end of the year also.
So can Turner breakout? I think so. Turner reportedly focused on biking up this off-season and in year two of Brian Flores complicated system they should be able to depend on him more - if you can get Greenard, Turner and van Ginkel on the field at the same time Turner or van Ginkel could drop into coverage making it really tough on offensive lines. It's also a good point that the Vikings head coach picked Turner as his most likely to break out player in an interview during the draft.
Lions - Terrion Arnold
Here's what NFL.com said:
Twitchy man-cover corner with outstanding athletic ability and the skill set to bring in ball production at the professional level. Arnold possesses average size but plays with a desired level of aggression and competitiveness in both phases of his job. He’s fast and agile to match up against a variety of receiver flavors on the outside or in the slot.
The former Crimson Tide corner Terrion Arnold was beloved of many Packers fans prior to the draft and said on draft day this season that he cried during the draft last year because he thought he would be a Packer and became a Lion instead (I'm sure that's how he meant it). If you listen to Lions fans, he doesn't need to break out because he already did. Reality tells a different story.
Arnold had a PFF grade of 50.8 good (bad?) for a 109 ranking out of 116 corners last season. He had no interceptions, four missed tackles, a passer rating allowed of almost 100 and11 penalties for 167 lost yards. Yikes.
So, where's the upside? Eight of Arnold's 11 penalties came in the season's first four weeks. His best game by far came against the Vikings in a must-win week 18 match-up. He did have a top-25 reception rate allowed on the season. And the Lions have overhauled their secondary - making it likely that Arnold won't have to take on the hardest match-up.
Arnold has the ability this season will show if he can put it together.