The schedule is out, and by now you know the main storylines: The Pack finally open the season at home, for the first time in the Matt LaFleur era. They play on Thanksgiving for the third-straight year. Five of their division games come in the final seven games of the season.
The Green Bay Packers have three two-game road trips (they had just one last year). They play the Chicago Bears twice in a 13-day span late. They close at the Purple Palace.
Like most of you, once the schedule is out, I dissect it game by game and predict the Pack’s record. This year, rather than doing it chronologically, I’m ranking them in order of how much I’m looking forward to watching them. With a schedule chock-full of big-name and young and feisty QBs, this season will not be dull.
No. 17: Week 9 vs. Carolina
At this point, the Pack have played just one home game since Week 2, so it will be great to see a game at Lambeau. Bryce Young took a major step forward in his second year and gets to throw to rookie Tet McMillan. This is going to feel like one of those games the Packers should handle easily, but with the Philadelphia Eagles looming next week, there’s some danger that the team will be looking ahead.
Win
No. 16: Week 11 at N.Y. Giants
Gotta assume rookie Jaxson Dart will be starting by now, since the New York Giants’ schedule is grueling and they will likely be sitting comfortably at the bottom of their division at this point. If Jaire Alexander is still with the team, his matchup with Malik Nabers will be fun to watch, and we’ll get our first look at rookie pass rusher Abdul Carter.
This one is on a short week, on the road, following the Eagles game, but the Pack will be too much for the Giants to handle.
Win
No. 15: Week 3 at Cleveland
I was tempted to put this one last, but the possibility of a matchup against Shedeur Sanders gives it a bit more buzz. Beyond that, the Pack’s first road game, coming with extra rest off the Week 2 Thursday night game, should make this the easiest road game on the schedule.
Win
No. 14: Week 7 at Arizona
It’s a testament to how strong this schedule is that this game ranks so low. Kyler Murray is always entertaining to watch, and he figures to have improved chemistry with wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Their defense is improved, but the Pack should handle its business.
Win
No. 13: Week 13 at Denver
This one falls in the middle of Green Bay’s toughest stretch, the one non-divisional game in a five-game stretch. The Denver Broncos are on the rise, with young QB Bo Nix, a rookie running back they like, and a great young secondary. This feels like a trap game with a big trip to Chicago looming next, but I choose to believe that the Pack will be playing their best ball late in the season, and I think they escape, maybe in a come-from-behind fashion.
Win
No. 12: Week 4 at Dallas
This might seem low for a primetime game in a place where the Packers have had some of their highest highs, such as the Super Bowl 45 win and the annihilation in the playoffs a couple of years ago. Again, it speaks to the fun matchups on this year’s docket.
The Pack will look to head into their bye on a high note against a Dallas Cowboys team that will have all the usual hype, but will ultimately disappoint. I have the Pack off to a 3-0 start, and I think they finally get tripped up in Big D.
Loss
No. 11: Week 6 vs. Cincinnati
The Packers get the edge here coming off their bye and finally playing a home game after not being at home since Week 2. Cincinnati will be coming off a tough game against the Lions. It’ll be a great test for Jeff Hafley’s defense to see how they deal with Joe Burrow and his weapons. Still, Cincinnati’s defense will have no answer for Love, Jacobs, and the Pack.
Win
No. 10: Week 2 vs. Washington
The Washington Commanders are the preseason darlings of the league. They have eight standalone games on their schedule, including this one, the first Thursday night game of the season.
Jayden Daniels is coming off one of the greatest rookie seasons we’ve ever seen from a QB, and they’ve helped him by fortifying their offensive line and adding Deebo Samuel. The question for the Pack is whether they can move on quickly from their emotional high-voltage opener against the Lions and be ready for the dangerous Daniels on a short week.
Washington’s soft opener at home against the Giants will have them ready. This one might get decided late, but…
Win
No. 9: Week 14 vs. Chicago
Now we start to see the division games make the list, and you might think this one ranks a little low, seeing as it’s the first meeting between LaFleur and new Chicago Bears coach Ben Johnson, who’s been poking the bear since he got the job.
Again, it’s just an insanely interesting schedule this year.
Both teams will be coming off extra rest after playing early games on Thanksgiving week. The Pack is still irked that they allowed the Bears to steal the game at Lambeau last season. The Bears should be improved with bona fide coaches on both sides of the ball, but Green Bay will be more than ready.
Win
No. 8: Week 12 vs. Minnesota
The Pack finally gets its second divisional game of the season, and it’ll be their first look at J.J. McCarthy, in what may be his first game in bad weather. This game starts that grueling stretch for Green Bay, with the Turkey Day game looming four days later. These games are always intense and unpredictable.
Win
No. 7: Week 17 vs. Baltimore
Lamar Jackson at Lambeau in late December, maybe in prime time? Sign me up. How can there possibly be six more enticing games than this on the schedule? Can Hafley’s group contain Jackson and Derrick Henry? Can the Pack rack up points against that tough defense? This one has everything you want, but Green Bay is tough to beat at Lambeau in December.
Win
No. 6: Week 16 at Chicago
This Saturday game falls just 13 days after the first matchup. The way I have things falling, it comes on the heels of a hard-fought win in Denver. When teams play each other twice in a two-week span, I tend to favor the team that lost the first one. The Pack hasn’t lost at Soldier Field since 2018, but the streak ends this year.
Loss
No. 5: Week 8 at Pittsburgh
We’ve reached the top five, and you know where I’m going here. If the NFL believes, I believe. By putting the Pittsburgh Steelers in prime time in Week 1 at the New York Jets and at home on Sunday Night Football against the Pack, the league is telling us they expect Aaron Rodgers to be Mike Tomlin’s starting QB this season.
Rodgers’ first and likely only game against the Packers? It should shatter viewing records. Still, there are four bigger games I’m more interested in. Once this game starts, it will be clear the Packers are the better team, and despite having to go west to Arizona the week before and now east to Steel City, they will ruin Aaron’s hopes for revenge.
Win
No. 4: Week 13 at Detroit
Remember the last time the Packers played the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving? Of course you do.
Jordan Love and the Pack dismantled them, fueling that late-season charge that almost got them to the title game. Detroit never seems to be quite on their game on Turkey Day — the Bears almost bit them last year. The Pack will be coming off a tough win over the Minnesota Vikings, while Detroit will have sleepwalked past the Giants at home the previous week. I think the Lions get a measure of revenge for two years ago.
Loss
No. 3: Week 18 at Minnesota
It’s impossible to know what will be on the line in Week 18. Might mean nothing, might mean everything. Chances are, there will be plenty on the line in this season-ending rivalry game. (Oh, how I wish the league would schedule Minnesota at Green Bay in a cold-weather game one of these years.)
These games always have extra juice, and after taking out the Baltimore Ravens and having an extra day of rest, the Pack will come in feeling very good about themselves. I flipped a coin.
Loss
No. 2: Week 1 vs. Detroit
What a perfect way to start. The biggest takeaway from last season was Green Bay’s 1-5 record in the North, a division they have owned since LaFleur took over. This season’s success will largely depend on how they fare in the league’s toughest division, and this will be their only test until Week 12.
The Pack catch a break getting them in Week 1, the first test for Detroit’s two new coordinators, who will likely get more comfortable as the season plays out. The Packers look to send an early-season message.
Win
No. 1: Week 10 vs. Philadelphia
As interesting as this schedule looks on paper, you can’t beat a visit from the Super Bowl champs, the team that both kicked off and ended your season a year ago with losses. Throw in the fact that it’s on Monday night at Lambeau, and you get the most anticipated game of the season.
I’ve got Green Bay sitting at 7-1 heading into this one, getting lots of national love with a chance to stamp themselves as NFC title contenders against the best team in the league. Expect an evenly played game, with the Pack trading blows with the Eagles for 60 minutes, but the champs are the champs for a reason.
Loss
Add it all up, and you get a 12-5 record, which is one win better than last year. That may be good enough to win the North, a division where all four teams may end up with eight to 12 wins.
As it stands right now, the Pack are favored in all but four games, including both Vikings games. So, there’s widespread belief that this young offense will take a step forward and that the defense will be improved in Year 2 under Hafley.
It’s banking on Jordan Love taking a major step forward in his third year as a starter. In predicting a 12-5 record, I’m investing in those futures.