Jacksonville Jaguars WR Brian Thomas, Jr.
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Jacksonville Jaguars WR Brian Thomas, Jr.
After analyzing the Jacksonville Jaguars schedule for the first quarter of the season, it’s time to look at Weeks five through nine (with a Week 8 bye week, and my prediction for that week is 100% spot on).
While a few of these games look daunting, just about every game in the 2025 NFL season is going to tough when you only won four games in 2024. ESPN has posted their 2025 projections and are in parenthesis.
Weeks five and six
Week 5: vs Kansas City Chiefs (32%): The Kansas City Chiefs were one curb stomping away from a three-peat last season. Winners of the previous two Super Bowls, Pat Mahomes and company ran into a buzzsaw known as the Philadelphia Eagles, dropping the big game 40-22, and it wasn’t remotely as close as the score indicated. But still, the Chiefs will be a problem again this year.
The good news for the Jaguars is that they don’t have to go into Kansas City and, look at this, it’s a Monday Night game! The Jags haven’t played on Monday Night since 2023, when they dropped a game to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Despite the Chiefs offense not being what it was in previous years, they still had a very well-coached, tough-tackling defense. They bottled up Saquon Barkley in the Super Bowl and didn’t allow him to get any cheap yards breaking through light arm tackles. Barkley wasn’t the reason the Eagles won that game. And, for the most part, the defense will be back in tact for the 2025 season and that isn’t good news for the Jaguars heading into this game. Losing safety Justin Reid is tough and so is the loss of defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi.
The bigger problem for the Chiefs is their offense (who thought they’d be saying that just a year ago?). They lost offensive guard Joe Thuney – who played left tackle in the Super Bowl – and that’s painful for an offensive line that can’t afford it. Sure, they drafted Ohio State tackle Josh Simmons in the first round this year, but he’s still just a rookie. They also got thinner at wide receiver, which isn’t good. Mecole Hardman and DeAndre Hopkins are gone, leaving the speedy Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice coming back from injury.
In short, the Chiefs have a lot of question marks, including their always-reliable tight end Travis Kelce. There were rumors of retirement this offseason and who knows what the 35-year old will be at this point in his career? Some think he may have retired before the Super Bowl last year:
The Jags will have a better chance to win this game than most people think. The Chiefs are most likely still too much and have more talent and more experience in prime-time games.
Week 6: vs Seattle Seahawks (45%): And, the Jaguars are back on at 1 P.M. on Sunday, hosting the Seattle Seahawks. The Jags will have the natural advantage of not just a home game, but the opponent having to make one of the longest trips in the entire NFL. And, circadian advantage is a real thing.
The biggest question mark of this game is going to be about the Seahawks new quarterback Sam Darnold. Sure, he was excellent for the Minnesota Vikings last year (except at the end), but was it a flash in the pan? Was it a product of working with head coach Kevin O’Connell? The Seahawks are about to find out in 2025, and they are going to rely heavily on Darnold since they sent last year’s starter Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders for a third-round pick.
The Seahawks were an above-average 10-7 in 2024, but didn’t make the playoffs. Darnold is probably not much of an upgrade (if at all) over Smith, and with the Seahawks’ long travel time, the Jags should have a better than 45% chance to win this game.
Weeks seven through nine
Week 7: vs. Los Angeles Rams – London, England (33%): And, it’s back to England for the Jaguars as per usual! This time they have the benefit of playing a team that has to travel twice as far with an eight-hour time difference between their home and London. Now, the Rams do play at the Baltimore Ravens the previous week and one could argue whether or not that it’s a benefit. On one hand, they are closer to their next destination to play the Jags in London. On the other hand, they’ll still be coming off of a tough road game with additional travel awaiting.
The Rams nearly beat the Eagles in last season’s Divisional Round of the playoffs and are one of the best teams in the NFC. They are returning the majority of their core from 2024 and have added star wide receiver Davante Adams, who should form quite the 1-2 punch with fellow wideout Puka Nacua.
ESPN is being generous giving the Jaguars a 33% chance to win this one. As we sit here now, it’s going to be incredibly tough for Jacksonville to come away with a dub here.
Week 8: Bye Week: The Jaguars win this one no problem. Book it!
Week 9: at Las Vegas Raiders (48%): While the Raiders are usually a welcomed sight for any team to see on their schedule, they’ve gotten a lot better. The Jaguars will take on the Raiders at 4:05 P.M. eastern time that Sunday afternoon.
Adding Pete Carroll as the head coach should add some stability to a locker room that desperately needed it. And, as previously mentioned, the silver and black have significantly upgraded the quarterback position with the addition of veteran Geno Smith. Smith threw for 4,320 yards in 2024 to go with 21 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. That is light years above what any Raiders quarterback (pick one) did last year.
But, perhaps the biggest offseason addition for the Raiders is the drafting of running back Ashton Jeanty with the No. 6-overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Of course, there are question marks as he’s a rookie that has never played, and you never know how even talented rookie running backs will perform on lesser offenses (see: Saquon Barkley’s career with the Giants).
The Jaguars can absolutely make the tough road trip and get a win here. After eight games, it’s not inconceivable that the Jags could be above .500 at 5-3.