Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne
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Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne
If the Jacksonville Jaguars really get it rolling in 2025, the final stretch of the season should be quite manageable. Of course, just about every NFL team (save a few) have reasons for optimism as they embark on a fresh new year. But, the Jaguars won four games in 2024 so it would take quite the turnaround to even make the playoffs.
Not that it’s unachievable, but it would be a big ask. As we wrap up the four-part schedule analysis (Weeks 1-4, Weeks 5-9, Weeks 10-13), hopefully the Jaguars will be firing on all cylinders and have something to play for in the final five games.
ESPN released its 2025 projections and their probabilities are in parenthesis.
Weeks 14-16
Week 14: vs Indianapolis Colts (46%): It is an absolute roll of the dice as to what any team will look like at this point in the season. And that goes doubly for the Colts when the Jaguars host their division rivals at 1 P.M. on Pearl Harbor Day.
Of course, the big question for the Colts will be who is playing quarterback for them. As of now, no one knows who will be their starting quarterback in Week 1, let alone Week 14. Will they still be deciding between Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones? Will they have made a trade for a veteran at this point? Maybe rookie Riley Leonard will be in charge. All are tremendous question marks as Richardson has been a disappointment so far in his career, completing just 47.7% of his passes in 2024, Jones is most likely a career backup and Leonard is a first-year guy. Ouch.
The status of the rest of the team might be irrelevant if they aren’t getting competent quarterback play. ESPN’s projection of a 46% chance for a Jaguars win could be very conservative. The Jaguars really need to get a win here, especially if they are still fighting for the AFC South.
Week 15: vs New York Jets (54%): Speaking of “who knows what this team will be in 2025,” the Jaguars welcome the New York Jets to Jacksonville for yet another 1 P.M. Sunday afternoon game.
The Aaron Rodgers experiment is over for the Jets, who after two seasons told the future Hall of Famer to pound sand. Usually, the fish rots from the head down and that seems to be true for the Jets. While many will blame Rodgers for the team’s dysfunction, he was merely a symptom and not a cause. Now, the Jets went out and got Justin Fields from the Pittsburgh Steelers in the offseason. Fields was 4-2 as a starter for the Steelers last year, but was benched for Russell Wilson as the team wanted to go more vertical with the passing game.
The Jets do have a very nice roster, but they seem to find ways to blow it every year. Just ask a long-time Jets fan and they’ll tell you all about it. It wouldn’t be surprising for the Jets to limp into this game with a poor record and then find a way to beat the Jaguars and screw up their own 2026 NFL Draft position. That might sound like a very bold prediction, but it’s actually a very Jets prediction.
Week 16: at Denver Broncos (29%): This is going to be a tough game for the Jaguars as they travel to Denver for a 4:05 P.M. game. This game is problematic for a few reasons.
First of all, the mile-high altitude is a very real thing. Back in 2001, the New York Giants traveled to Denver to face the Broncos in Week 1 for a Monday Night game. I asked the Giants’ then strength and conditioning coach Mother Dunn what it would be like for his squad to get used to the thin air. He said, “I’d need two full weeks there.” It would take two full weeks for players to get their bodies acclimated to playing in that environment. How is that for a home-field advantage? And you thought rude Eagles fans were a problem?
So, young stud quarterback Bo Nix might be the least of the Jaguars’ problems. ESPN might be a little high with their 29% win probability rate. As we sit here right now, Denver is the better team and the Jags will be at a huge disadvantage between travel and altitude.
Weeks 17 and 18
Week 17: at Indianapolis Colts (38%): The Colts again. If the Jags finish this season strong, they could really rack up some division wins and possibly take a winnable AFC South. With the Colts quarterback situation obviously a huge question mark, it should be noted that they have made other upgrades to their roster.
There haven’t been many complaints about Penn State tight end Tyler Warren falling to the Colts in the first round of the NFL Draft at No. 14. The Colts were in desperate need of a tight end and many considered Warren to be the best in the draft at that position. He will surely be a huge help to whoever is playing quarterback.
The Colts have also added help to a leaky defense. They drafted Ohio State defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau in the second round and then took Minnesota cornerback Justin Walley in the third. They also signed cornerback Charvarius Ward in free agency, so the Colts are certainly hoping to be better on defense.
All that aside, if the Colts are still dealing with the same concerns at quarterback (and that’s anyone’s guess), the Jags should be able to come away with a win here.
Week 18: vs Tennessee Titans (58%): The Jaguars wrap up the 2025 regular season at home with a game against the Titans. Week 18 is an absolute crapshoot for everyone. There is a reason that fantasy leagues no longer play their championships on the last week of the league year. Starters could be resting, the entire team could be hurt, rosters could be starting street free agents who were working construction jobs two weeks ago. That’s life in the NFL.
Of course, there is also a chance that the Jaguars and Titans are playing for the division title. Stranger things have happened. This could be the game of the week if the winner goes on to claim the AFC South title. The odds of that happening aren’t good, but anything is possible.
The Jaguars – if still healthy – should be able to get a win over the Titans to wrap things up and it might just lead to a playoff birth.