We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at the Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal vs Newcastle prediction and preview. Could the Magpies pip the Gunners to second?
Arsenal vs Newcastle Stats: The Key Insights
Arsenal are ranked as the favourites by the Opta supercomputer, given a 47.7% win probability.
Following their 1-0 victory at St James’ Park in November, Newcastle United are looking to complete their first league double over Arsenal since 1994-95.
Newcastle have won all three games against Arsenal this season, 1-0 in the Premier League and 2-0 in both legs of the EFL Cup semi-final.
For much of the season, it has seemed like Arsenal were guaranteed to finish at least second in the Premier League.
Yet with two games remaining, the Gunners are far from certain of their spot behind runaway champions Liverpool. In fact, they are not yet technically guaranteed to finish in the top five.
Mikel Arteta’s men welcome third-place Newcastle United to the Emirates Stadium on Sunday, with just two points separating the teams.
A victory for Arsenal would not guarantee second, but it would ensure their place in the top five before a final-day trip to relegated Southampton. Newcastle, meanwhile, need four points from their remaining six on offer in order to confirm UEFA Champions League qualification – Eddie Howe’s team host Everton on the final day of the season.
Arsenal are winless in their last four home games in all competitions (D2 L2), losing the last two. They last had a longer run without a win at the Emirates between March and May 2021 (six), while they last lost more consecutively in November/December 2019 (four).
Newcastle, on the other hand, have won seven of their last nine Premier League games, though have failed to win either of their last two away from home (D1 L1).
Victory here would see them leapfrog Arsenal into second place in the table, with the Magpies last finishing that high in the top-flight in 1996-97. Perhaps as an omen, that season was the last time Arsenal’s last home game of a campaign was against Newcastle, with Robbie Elliott’s goal securing a 1-0 win for the away side.
The Gunners have only lost their final home league game in one of the last 27 seasons (W22 D4), going down 2-1 against Aston Villa in 2010-11.
And Newcastle have not lost their final away league game in any of the last six seasons (W4 D2) since a 1-0 loss at Tottenham Hotspur in 2017-18. Four of these games have been away at London sides (W3 D1), beating Brentford 4-2 last term.
Arsenal’s defence has again been their bedrock this season. They have kept 12 clean sheets in the top flight and conceded a league-low 33 goals from a league-low 32.6 expected goals against (xGA).
Arsenal xGA 24-25
Key to their defensive performances has been the excellent form of William Saliba.
The France international could make his 100th Premier League appearance in this match. If he plays and Arsenal win, it would equal the most victories for a Gunners player in their first 100 games in the competition (68 by Lauren and Sol Campbell).
Saliba’s Nomination:
Saliba and the rest of Arsenal’s defence will be up against the Premier League’s second-highest scorers, though, with Newcastle’s tally of 68 goals trailing only Liverpool (83), while only Brentford (15.1%) can better the Magpies’ shot conversion rate (13.8%).
Alexander Isak, who scored in Newcastle’s league win over the Gunners earlier in the season, has rightly grabbed the headlines for his stellar performances and is a player Arsenal have been linked with in the past.
Indeed, had the Gunners signed Isak, or someone of his calibre, earlier this season, perhaps they could be preparing for a Champions League final right now, or maybe the gap between themselves and Liverpool would not have been quite as great.
Isak xG
Only Mohamed Salah (28) has scored more Premier League goals than Isak (23) this season, with the Sweden international having netted every 116 minutes on average.
But Isak has been ably supported by Anthony Gordon, Harvey Barnes and, in particular, Jacob Murphy, who has been another standout performer for Newcastle.
Murphy has provided 12 assists in the Premier League this season. The only Newcastle players with more in a single campaign are Andrew Cole (13 in 1993-94) and Nolberto Solano (15 in 1999-00).
Jacob Murphy chances created
Arsenal could have Kai Havertz back for the first time since the League Cup semi-final second leg against Newcastle after the Germany international returned to training following injury. Mikel Arteta will also make a late decision on the availability of Declan Rice, Gabriel Martinelli, Jurrien Timber and Leandro Trossard.
Newcastle will be without Kieran Trippier and Joelinton, but Howe will hope to have Joe Willock and Sven Botman available.
Arsenal vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Newcastle have won five of their last eight meetings with Arsenal in all competitions (D1 L2), as many as they had in their previous 52 against the Gunners (D11 L36).
The Magpies have won all three meetings so far this season, 1-0 in the Premier League and 2-0 in both legs of the League Cup semi-final. No team has ever beaten Arsenal four times in a single campaign.
Indeed, following their 1-0 win at St James’ Park in November, Newcastle are looking to complete their first league double over Arsenal since 1994-95.
Arsenal have lost just one of their last 20 Premier League home games against Newcastle (W17 D2), winning 11 of the last 12 (D1) since a 1-0 loss in November 2010.
Newcastle v Arsenal xG
Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction
Despite their poor recent record against Newcastle, the Gunners are rated as favourites by the Opta supercomputer.
Arsenal came out on top in 47.7% of the model’s data-led simulations, while Newcastle were victors in 27.5%. There is a 24.8% chance of a draw.
Our model also predicts Arsenal to finish second (78.1%), with Newcastle actually marginally more likely to finish fourth (33.1%) than third (30.8%) – the likelihood Howe’s team finish second is just 19.2%.
Arsenal v Newcastle Opta prediction
Arsenal vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups
Arsenal predicted lineup v Newcastle
Newcastle predicted lineup v Arsenal
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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