NFL.com's Cynthia Frelund is predicting the 49ers to go from worst to first in the NFC West in 2025.
The San Francisco 49ers are clear-cut candidates to go from a last-place team a season ago to winning their division in 2025.
Of course, 2024 was marred by a swarm of injuries. Despite the Niners' mass exodus of talent, it's not hard to recognize the nucleus of star power remaining in the Bay Area.
That's one of the reasons why NFL.com analyst Cynthia Frelund is predicting San Francisco to win the NFC West after taking into account the 2025 regular-season schedule.
Frelund ran one million simulations for all 272 regular-season games across the league, adding data that included cross-country trips and various other data points that impact all 32 teams' potential records.
The result? The 49ers go from worst to first in 2025.
Data-driven analysis predicts 49ers to win NFC West
The Niners boast what many view as an easy schedule this season, influenced by 2024's last-place finish and also benefiting from a positive rest differential (San Francisco had the worst rest differential in the NFL the previous two years).
Frelund's prediction machine gave the 49ers 9.9 wins on the season, and here was her description:
"The Niners' fourth-place finish last season turned into a real W for Kyle Shanahan's squad, at least in terms of how the league's scheduling formula works, with the biggest threat among fellow 2024 fourth-placers on the 2025 slate being the Bears -- and they don't come to town until Week 17, by which time there should be plenty of clarity around this season. As of now, San Francisco doesn't have back-to-back games in which it is not favored to win, even factoring in all the defensive turnover this offseason."
Those 9.9 wins are most in the NFC West, the breakdown of which is as follows:
San Francisco 49ers: 9.9 wins
Los Angeles Rams: 9.7 wins
Seattle Seahawks: 8.1 wins
Arizona Cardinals: 8.0 wins
Of course, even Frelund admits the biggest X-factor in predictions is injuries, which bit the Niners hard a year ago and remain an ever-present threat.
However, one can hope San Francisco used the offseason to beef up the depth chart with younger, more-dynamic talent to guard against such setbacks.
Either way, it's reassuring to see the analytics pointing toward the 49ers retaking the NFC West crown this season.
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