It is unquestioned that the Pittsburgh Steelers got a draft-day steal in Kaleb Johnson in the third round. The general consensus was that he would land somewhere in the second round and even had first-round hype at one point.
Just because he was good value doesn’t mean that he will instantly be productive.
In a similar fashion to fellow rookie Will Howard, some fans and analysts seem overly confident in Johnson as an instant starter for the Steelers. Many talking heads are already naming him the starter and thinking he could be the bell-cow for this backfield.
If you care about recent draft trends, the odds of him making that kind of an impact as a rookie are slim. Add in some stiff competition from Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, and Johnson could disappoint this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers may give Kaleb Johnson fewer touches than we think
Looking at the past five drafts, the third round has yielded a few notable running backs. That said, most of that success came later on in their careers or as a core member of a committee.
Just last year, we saw three of the perceived top names in the class fall to the third round in Trey Benson, Blake Corum, and MarShawn Lloyd. None of them ran for more than 300 yards.
Only two names in the third round stick out as having wildly successful rookie seasons that being Antonio Gibson and De’Von Achane. Achane wasn’t even a starter, instead making the most of his opportunities with an insane 7.8 yards per carry in his first year. That kind of explosiveness is missing from Johnson.
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Gibson is a more similar comp, but his ability as a receiver got him on the field sooner than later. That is arguably the weakest element of Johnson’s game. Even then, neither he nor Archane got close to 1,000 rushing yards as rookies, and both were used in a traditional committee.
Looking at the backfield the Steelers have, you have to imagine Warren will be in line for at least 50 percent of the snaps in the backfield. Gainwell will have a constant, albeit limited, role as well.
No, Johnson won’t be kept on the bench, but his role seems clear: A rotational two-down player when they are taking Warren off the field. That should still be good for 40 percent of the offensive snaps and 10-15 carries a game, but he likely won’t be the guy as a rookie.
This isn’t a knock against him or me saying that he can’t get to the point where he is the primary back. It could happen, and it could be as early as the end of this season if Warren really struggles.
That said, the odds are that he settles into a more limited role as a rookie. Think a lighter version of what we saw from Najee Harris. Just don’t expect him to become the primary bell-cow once week one rolls around suddenly.
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