After the 2024 Packers finished third in the NFC North, one consolation was that a third-place schedule could set them up for success in 2025, given Green Bay was not your average third-place divisional team.
That did not exactly go to plan though, as their 2025 slate is not your average third-place schedule either.
The tough division the Packers play in contributes massively to making their upcoming fixture list not look as hospitable as they would probably like.
No one in NFC North has an over/under of lower than 8.5 wins for the 2025 season, with the Lions at 10.5, the Packers at 9.5, and the Vikings and Bears at 8.5.
Green Bay went 1-5 against the division last year, with the lone win coming courtesy of a last-second field goal block against Chicago. They will have to improve against NFC North foes in 2025 to better their standing within the division at the end of the year.
A strong division record will be even more imperative this year, as the rest of their schedule is not exactly a walk in the park either.
In fact, the Packers only face three opponents this season with an over/under of lower than 8.5, the Panthers at home (6.5), the Browns on the road (4.5) and the Giants on the road (6.5).
Those are ‘gimmes’ in theory, but even then, the Packers have not beaten the Giants since 2019, losing their last two matchups, one in London in 2022 and another at MetLife stadium to Tommy DeVito in 2023.
On the flipside, Green Bay plays six games against teams with 10.5 or better over/unders: Detroit twice, Washington, and Cincinnati are all at 10.5, while Philadelphia and Baltimore are at 11.5.
An early bye, coming at the earliest possible time in week five, will not help matters. In the last seven weeks of the season, Green Bay will not play an opponent with an over/under of lower than 8.5, which could have given them some respite.
The average over/under of the teams they play in that final stretch is 9.35, and includes five of their six divisional games, with their NFC North matchups backloaded other than the week one meeting with Detroit.
During that daunting run, their last significant rest at the bye week will feel like ancient history, and the late stages of the season could feel like a real slog.
It is at this point the significant depth general manager Brian Gutekunst has built up across the roster could prove absolutely vital.
Being able to rotate players to keep them fresh, or having serviceable backups for when injuries inevitably hit could give Green Bay the edge over their opponents in some difficult and significant games towards the end of the year.
The Packers do have the benefit of playing five out of the six games against these strong opponents at home, with the trip to face the Lions on Thanksgiving the only road game.
Unfortunately though, only one of those home games against the more formidable opponents comes in the final eight weeks of the season, when the Packers host the Ravens in week 17.
That means Green Bay gets very little benefit from the frozen tundra in 2025, which can prove a significant advantage against teams who are not used to playing in frigid conditions.
There is an inherent folly to analyzing an NFL schedule months before a ball is kicked off, and even further from when teams reveal themselves to be better or worse than anyone thought, or get decimated by injuries.
But in terms of the logistics of the Packers’ schedule, and the general strength of their opponents, there are very few, if any soft spots or true situational advantages baked in. Green Bay is going to have to earn everything they get in 2025.