Why the Patriots Won’t Win 11 Games
Offense
Quarterback
2nd Year QB – Can Drake Maye make the jump in his 2nd year to be a quality NFL QB? Does Maye regress and doesn’t improve his high turnover rate? A lot is being put on Maye’s plate. He is learning his 2nd offensive playbook in two years, under the tutelage of a demanding Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels. McDaniels requires the QB to make a lot of pre-snap reads and then adjust on the fly. The QB and WRs need to be on the same page, seeing the same thing, and making the same adjustment. Drake Maye was surrounded by one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL as a rookie because the Offensive Line was a sieve and couldn’t protect him. Many of the Interceptions were not his fault. He also fumbled quite a few times. If they are going to call QB runs, Run/Pass Options (RPO) or QB sneaks, can he be a reliable runner?
Offensive Line
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF) lists the Patriots as one of 5 teams that have significantly upgraded their Offensive lines this off season. “New England was determined to improve that situation this offseason. The front office focused on the offensive line at the beginning of free agency by signing tackle Morgan Moses, center Garrett Bradbury and guard Wes Schweitzer.
Moses was an above-average tackle from 2020 to 2023, with PFF overall grades of 78.6 or better during three of those four seasons. However, the 34-year-old lineman’s play fell off precipitously in 2024 on his way to a 63.3 PFF overall grade for the Jets. New England will hope that Moses has a few more good years left of protecting the edge during the beginning of Maye’s career.
Garrett Bradbury and third-round draft pick Jared Wilson will likely compete for the starting center job in 2025. Bradbury has had a bit of a disappointing career after the Vikings selected him in the first round in 2019, whereas Wilson may be one of the steals of this year’s draft as the top center on PFF’s big board.
The Patriots also picked up PFF’s top offensive tackle in the draft, selecting Will Campbell with the fourth-overall pick. While most of the pre-draft conversation was about the former LSU Tiger’s arm length, he held up just fine at tackle in the SEC, ranking in the 95th percentile of FBS tackles in PFF pass-blocking grade on true pass sets since 2022.”
Will Campbell
(PHOTO: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)
However, Campbell is a rookie, and the best rookie Left Tackle last season was the Saints Taliese Fuaga as the #48 ranked Tackle overall. His PFF Rating was 65.7. There were two other rookies ranked higher, but both played Right Tackle. Expect Campbell to have some issues with speed rushers. All rookies do have to make adjustments to the speed of the NFL.
We have no idea who will be playing Left Guard for the Patriots. Will Layden Robinson beat out Cole Strange, Wes Schweitzer, Sidy Sow, and possibly Jared Wilson? Robinson was ranked 128th among offensive guards by Pro Football Focus. His Blocking grade was 43.6. Replacing Robinson could be easy. I have heard that Wes Schweitzer has been splitting 1st team reps in the OTAs. Schweitzer played the most in 2020 for Washington with over 1,000 snaps. His PFF Rating was 69.0 that year. Last season with the Jets he played in just 1 play.
There is uncertainty at LG and you are starting a rookie at Left Tackle. What could go wrong?
Garrett Bradbury is an upgrade over David Andrews and Ben Brown. Brown was signed off the Raiders Practice Squad last year and had a miserable season. He did his best but was ranked 54th amongst all Centers in the league. To make things worse, the Patriots Cole Strange and Nick Leverett were ranked worse than Brown. Bradbury was great against the run with a 70.7 Run Blocking grade from PFF, but his Pass Blocking was awful with a 48.2 grade. Bradbury gave up 38 QB Pressures and 4 Sacks in 2024. He will be a big improvement but may be pushed by Draft Pick Jared Wilson.
Morgan Moses is 34 years old. The four years prior to 2024 he was a very good Right Tackle. His ratings were 77.6, 78.1, 71 and 80. However, his play went down last year with a 63.3 rating and an overall blocking ranking of 64 amongst all Tackles. Is he on the downslope of his career? Caeden Wallace had a wasted year last year. He was injured and wasted his time by trying to play Left Tackle (which the Patriots quickly found out that he couldn’t). He is expected to be the backup and eventually replace Moses at Right Tackle.
Tight End
The Patriots got great seasons out of their pair of 31-year-old veteran TEs. Both Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper came into the league together in 2016. Henry tied for 1st in receptions with 66 and led the team in receiving yards with 674 yards. Austin Hooper had 45 receptions good for 4th on the team for 474 yards. Can they expect that again in 2025. I don’t think so. The team can’t go into 2025 with two 32-year-old TEs. The older a player is, the more likely he is to get hurt. I am predicting that Hooper will not make the team (as long as Henry is healthy). The Patriots have a pretty good UDFA TE in CJ Dipre. They also have another UDFA FB that can play TE in Brock Lampe.
Wide Receiver
The Patriots had one of the worst receiving corps in the league last year. Pop Douglas was tied for the team lead with 66 receptions. In my opinion Douglas was badly misused by Alex Van Pelt, and it wasn’t until the media questioned the coach on Douglas’ usage did Douglas start to become a part of the regular offense. Ja’Lynn Polk was flat out awful, as was Javon Baker. What a disastrous trade when they gave up Ladd McConkey for this pair of misfits. Both are on the bubble for making this year’s team. Their PFF Rankings were 221 and 191 respectively out of 223 receivers in the league.
Newcomer Mack Hollins has never been a full-time starter in the league, although he started 13 times last season for the Bills. I like his size and experience. They signed Stephon Diggs, coming off of ACL surgery, which knocked him out of last season. When healthy, Diggs was a premier player. He probably won’t be ready or back to something near his former self until mid-season. The Patriots drafted an exciting WR, Kyle Williams, from Washington State. He has the speed and quickness for the X position to get open with separation and to get deep, especially off of press man coverage. However, Williams hasn’t played a down in the NFL and proven that he can do those things.
Kendrick Bourne had his best year of his career playing for Josh McDaniels. He is now a year and half removed from his ACL injury, which is just about the time it takes to get back to full playing strength. It’s make or break for him this year. He could start, he could be traded or cut. Kayshon Boutte made a big improvement in his sophomore season, a far cry from his rookie season. Boutte had 43 receptions for 589 yards and a 13.7 YPC, and 3 TDs which both led the team. There were rumors before the draft that Boutte was available for trade, which makes his status with the team questionable.
Two UDFAs are in the mix in Efton Chism and Jeremiah Webb as is Practice Squad player John Jiles. All three looked god in shorts at the Rookie Camp, but how they play against NFL players come July in camp will show if they can play or not.
Running Back
Will Rhamondre Stevenson still have the fumbling problem from last season? If so, I don’t think he is long for this team. Mike Vrabel will not put up with that like Jerod Mayo did.
Defense
Milton Williams was the big acquisition in Free Agency. The Patriots saw the value in the Defensive Free Agents and concentrated on improving that unit.
Defensive Line
Milton Williams was the #1 DT in getting pressure on the QB according to PFF with a 91.7 Pass Rush Grade. That was better than KC All-Pro Chris Jones. However, his run-stopping grade was 41, which knocked him down to #14 overall. Also, Williams only played on 40% of the Defensive snaps for the vaunted Eagles Defense.
The return of Christian Barmore absolutely will help. Barmore let the media know this week that he has received full clearance to conduct football activities, and he is planning on being in the lineup for week 1. The combination of Barmore and Williams could be very dynamic. In 2023, Barmore was the #9 overall DT according to PFF with an 85.8 rating. He was #7 in Pass Rush grade with an 84.9 rating. They should wreak havoc on opposing QBs, making them very uncomfortable. My question is, can they consistently stop the run?
Linebacker
I will be honest, I didn’t know a lot about Robert Spillane because he played out West and for the Raiders, who were not a contending team. He is a tackling machine, having over 300 tackles in the last two years. Last season, his run-stopping grade was 85.4, 2nd behind Bobby Wagner. In 2023, he had 148 tackles, and in 2024, he added 158. He is on the smaller side at 6’1″, 229 pounds. He is not fast, running a 4.77 40-yard dash. In pass coverage, he is below average and can get picked on by Offenses. Based on how this Defense is being structured, Spillane is going to be counted on to make a lot of tackles. The New Defense is smaller across the front seven, and I am concerned about how they will hold up against a team that wants to run the ball like Buffalo and Baltimore.
Secondary
I never want to see Kyle Dugger at Free Safety again. He can’t play the position and doesn’t have the speed or the instincts to play there. The Patriots brought in Marcus Epps from the Raiders, but he is recovering from an ACL injury last season. They drafted Craig Woodson, an experienced Free Safety who can play multiple positions in the backfield. However, he was considered a reach as an early 4th-round pick. We shall see in Training Camp. I would like to see Marte Mapu and Kyle Dugger move to the Linebacker / Big Nickel position. Many teams start with three wideouts, and teams counter with 5 DBs. Leave Peppers at Strong Safety and out Duggers at the Big Nickel. Duggers has trouble in coverage and can get exposed no matter where he plays.
Carlton Davis is a good signing and should lock down the Right CB spot opposite of budding star Christian Gonzalez. But where is the depth? Will Alex Austin emerge as a suitable backup, because Carlton Davis has never played a full season in his 7-year NFL career? He has only played 12, 13 and 13 games in the last three years.
There is no backup for Marcus Jones in the slot corner position.
Special Teams
A rookie kicker, Andres Borregales, with some competition from John Parker-Romo, a holdover from the Practice Squad last year. They will have an unproven rookie long-snapper, and neither the long-snapper nor the kicker has played in the wild northeast weather.
Coaching Staff
This is a much better, more experienced coaching staff than the Patriots had last season. Josh McDaniels is a well-regarded Offensive Coordinator. Doug Marrone is a veteran Offensive Line coach and is another highly regarded coach. Two other coaches were Offensive Coordinators, and one was an Interim Head Coach.
On the Defensive side, Terrell Williams has been dealing with a Health scare but has been participating in team meetings and working with his coaching staff. He is another coach who is admired throughout the league, but he has never been a Defensive Coordinator. Will this health issue prevent Williams from joining the team?
Drake Maye
(PHOTO: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images)
Oddsmakers have Patriots Favored to Win in 11 Games
I didn’t know this fact when making my prediction of 11 wins. Curious we are looking at the schedule the same. In two games, they are 8-point Underdogs, at Buffalo and at Baltimore. Last season, the Patriots were not favored in any of their games. To start the season, they have a relatively easy schedule with 3 of the first 4 games at home. The lone loss in the 1st four games is in the heat of South Florida in week 2.
UDFA Lan Larison Decided to Sign with Patriots Before Draft Was Complete
According to Sean T. McQuire of NESN, he spoke with UC Davis Head Coach Tim Plough, and he stated that Lan Larison called him before the Draft was over and told him he was signing with the Patriots. “I thought he was calling me because he got drafted,” Plough told NESN. Larison stated that the reason he decided to sign with New England was because Head Coach Mike Vrabel had called him directly and asked if he would be interested in joining the Pats as a UDFA. It didn’t hurt that the Patriots offered him a significant guaranteed salary and signing bonus.
You Need To Watch “Forged In Patriots”
This video was produced by Patriots.com staff and is 1 hour and 13 minutes long. It is a fascinating view behind the scenes of Vrabel taking over as Head Coach, building the coaching staff, Free Agency, College scouting, and ultimately the draft. What I took away was how seamlessly Mike Vrabel, Eliot Wolf, and Ryan Cowden worked together, collaborated, and came away with the same conclusion. Wolf was clearly in charge of the Draft, but Vrabel asked both Wolf and Cowden’s opinions, and they agreed on the course of action. As Director of College Scouting, you could see Cam Williams at work. I think he will be missed, but this is an opportunity for someone like Matt Evans for a promotion. The former NH Wildcat Linebacker is a National Scout and former Southeast Area scout. He was very animated about the Patriots’ selection of Jared Wilson. An interesting quote by Ryan Cowden before the Patriots made their 1st selection in Round 3. Cowden said pick #69 is a “Trust your board and process pick.” Another interesting thing is that all the scouts were in attendance, kind of a reward for all the work they have done the past year. Eliot Wolf, just as the draft was starting, stood and thanked all the scouting staff for the work they accomplished coming into this day.
Christian Gonzalez
(PHOTO: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports)
Christian Gonzalez Omitted from PFF Top Players under 25 Years Old
What a sin it is to leave Gonzalez, who will turn 23 in June, off the list of 25 top players under 25. There are 5 DB’s on the list. Gonzalez, with just 20 starts in the NFL after missing all but the first 4 games of his rookie season, Gozalez was selected as 2nd Team All-Pro last year as was Trent McDuffie. Derek Stingley was selected 1st Team All-Pro. However, Chris Beneford of Buffalo and Cooper DeJean (S) of the Eagles were not All-Pros. Further, the Patriots played Man Defense at the 2nd highest rate (45.3%) last season per Patriots.com Evan Lazar. Last season Gonzalez faced a gauntlet of top-rated Wide Receivers. These are the players he faced:
Jamar Chase
DK Metcalf
Brandon Aiyuk
Tyreek Hill / Jaylen Waddle (2x)
Nico Collins / Stefon Diggs
Brian Thomas
Garrett Wilson (2x)
Calvin Ridley
DJ Moore
Puka Nacua
Marvin Harrison
Fourteen of these wideouts reached the 1,000-yard mark for the season. Gonzalez absolutely ate Marvin Harrison’s lunch against Arizona and dominated him.
About Mark Morse
Merrimack Valley native and lifelong fan of the New England Patriots. My earliest memories of the Patriots were attending as a child with my dad, the off-season practice at Phillips Academy. I was at the Patriots game at Harvard Stadium in 1970 where Bob “Harpo” Gladieux was called out of the stands by the stadium announcer over the PA to play in the game. Analyzing the draft since ESPN first started to televise it in 1980 and former writer for the Lowell Sun Newspaper.
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