While we often hear “past performance is not indicative of future results,” it is often the only information we can go on. Whether it is an NFL Insider predicting which quarterback will be the “odd man out” in the Cleveland Browns competition, projecting the upside of the Browns offense with each of those quarterbacks or just predicting how the schedule, and each opponents offseasons, could impact the results of a season, past performance is what we have to base things on.
For Cleveland’s offense, reverting back to HC Kevin Stefanski’s full control this season, we have five years to look back on to predict how many throws/targets will be available this year. Starting with his first season, 2020, through last year, the Browns quarterbacks attempted the following number of passes each season:
2020 - 501
2021 - 520
2022 - 540
2023 - 624
2024 - 661
The huge jump in the last two seasons coincides with the attempt to make things work around QB Deshaun Watson. While game flow, the score of a game and talent on the roster can help dictate passing attempts on a game-by-game basis, Cleveland is much more likely to return to around 500 pass attempts in 2025.
Last year, the Philadelphia Eagles, who went on to win the Super Bowl, had the fewest passes (448) in the league, followed by the Baltimore Ravens (479), Green Bay Packers (479), and Pittsburgh Steelers (499). Along with the Los Angeles Chargers, next on the list with 510 attempts, the five teams with the fewest passing attempts all made the playoffs.
All five are run-oriented teams, but teams that win games often run the ball more often late in games to secure their victories.
No matter who wins the starting quarterback job, the attempts will be low.
Looking back at Stefanski’s first three years, with less than 550 passes thrown all season, might also help us predict how many targets the pass catchers might get.
In 2020, WR Jarvis Landry led the team with 101 targets with just three other players seeing passes thrown their way more than 50 times (TE Austin Hooper with 70, WR Rashard Higgins with 52 and RB Kareem Hunt with 51).
In 2021, Landry once again led the team in targets, but that number dropped to 87 with Hooper (61), WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (58) and TE David Njoku (53) getting over 50 passes headed in their direction. Hunt led all running backs with 27 targets, with Nick Chubb getting 25 chances in the passing game.
In 2022, with Watson playing in six games and the arrival of Amari Cooper, there were only three pass catchers to top the 50-target mark: Cooper (132), Peoples-Jones (96) and Njoku (80). Hunt jumped back up to 44 targets with TE Harrison Bryant (42), Chubb (37) and WR David Bell (35) not far behind.
Heading into the 2025 season, the 2022 target shares could be close to what we see. Projecting the current group of pass catchers at the top of Cleveland’s depth chart to have the following targets from whoever the Browns quarterback is in 2025:
Jerry Jeudy - 115
David Njoku - 90
Cedric Tillman - 75
Harold Fannin - 45
Diontae Johnson - 40
Dylan Sampson - 40
Jamari Thrash - 34
Jerome Ford - 22
Total = 461
That would leave another 60 or so passes for the rest of the skill position players as well as any trickery that Stefanski might have up his sleeve. In 2022, the bottom of the roster received around 40 targets, but this Browns unit might see a little more rotation as the team tries to find the right mix of players.
Do you think the Browns revert back to the low to mid 500 passing attempts this year? Which of the above projections do you think are too low or too high?
As always, share your thoughts below in the comment section