With the NFL schedule’s official release, we’ve got a nice morsel of content to consume until actual football activities resume.
The Green Bay Packers finally open at home in the Matt LaFleur era but face two tough opponents off the bat with the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders.
There are plenty of other intriguing nuggets, but it’s their week without an opponent that is drawing some side-eye. After a Week 10 bye in 2024, the Packers will get their week of rest early this season — Week 5 to be precise.
A mid-late season bye is ideal, since by then teams are quite beat up and need the extra time to get their players refreshed or back on the field.
But an early bye isn’t a death sentence. The Super Bowl-winning Philadelphia Eagles had a Week 5 bye last season, and it didn’t hurt them too much. An early bye could actually have some benefits for Green Bay’s Super Bowl-hopeful team, and they have a few mini-byes in store to keep them refreshed through the season. What can we make from this year’s early bye?
As mentioned, the benefit of a late bye is the ability to get worn-out players refreshed and to get injured players back in the lineup. After 10-plus weeks of wear and tear, it’s nice to get the team primed for the back half of the season and a playoff push.
Bye weeks are also useful for self-scouting. It’s difficult to make drastic changes while preparing for a new opponent, so the bye allows coaching staffs to analyze their teams and make changes for the rest of the season. In theory.
With an early bye, you don’t have the same data available, but it does allow coaches to correct mistakes before they become habits. If your team has consistent issues early on, an early bye can help you find solutions.
Matt LaFleur’s team is no stranger to early bye weeks, with the 2020 squad also receiving the Week 5 bye. That squad was arguably a late-season David Bakhtiari injury away from the Super Bowl, so the early bye didn’t hurt too much. That team started hot, lost their post-bye matchup, and regained momentum.
Green Bay had a Week 6 bye in 2023. There, the early bye should have been a good thing. Jordan Love and the young offense hadn’t started strong, and their post-bye opponent, the Denver Broncos, looked like a good opponent to get right against. Unfortunately, the team didn’t take a step forward, and the game became a launching point for Denver, not Green Bay.
In general, LaFleur has a mixed post-bye record, with wins in 2021, 2022, and 2024. (Two of those were against the Bears, though.) Regardless of the week, the bye hasn’t particularly helped the Packers come out strong against their next opponents.
Opening the season against Detroit and Washington is a tough first test, even if those games are at home. The Lions might have lost both of their coordinators, but Dan Campbell has eaten LaFleur’s lunch more often than not, and his team can’t be underestimated. The Commanders’ future looks bright with their star young quarterback, new coaching staff, and new owner.
Then, Green Bay travels to Cleveland and Dallas before their bye.
If Green Bay struggles during that early stretch, the early bye week could be a boon. The 2024 Packers were good but not great and struggled against top-tier teams. They’ll face two early. And, while Cleveland and Dallas don’t frighten me, anything could happen. The early bye could be a chance to right the ship early if things look dire.
The back half of the schedule is tough, with three short road weeks (tied with Baltimore for the most in the league), and Green Bay’s schedule offers a -2 on the rest day chart. That could make the team wish it had a later bye.
#NFL Net Rest Days since 2019
No team has been hit harder than the #49ers in single seasons:
🟥 -20 in 2023
🟥 -22 in 2024
Meanwhile, #DET continues to enjoy one of the league’s biggest rest advantages – year after year.
Thanksgiving tradition or not, it’s a real competitive… pic.twitter.com/U6lXXCKmT0
— SFdata9ers🏈📊 (@sfdata9ers) May 17, 2025
But their two Thursday games (Week 2 and Week 13’s Thanksgiving game), the Packers will have two mini-byes against their following opponents. Those extra days post-Thanksgiving could be a particularly meaningful time to rest and strategize, with a stretch of divisional and road games following.
A final benefit of the early bye is that Green Bay is missing a key player, Christian Watson, for much of the early part of the season. The early bye means it’ll be a week he’d miss anyway as opposed to a week he could come back.
All in all, exactly when the bye week occurs doesn’t make or break a team’s chance of success. Teams would certainly hope for a later bye, but LaFleur prefers to take things week by week. Despite a tough schedule, the Packers will get a chance to rest up after Thanksgiving. And if the Packers aren’t looking hot after two early games against the NFC’s top teams, that early bye could be a blessing to reevaluate their approach.
Win those first four games and re-set at the bye. Then get a mini-bye post Thanksgiving to set up for a deep playoff run. pic.twitter.com/MUNmjYngrD
— Aaron Nagler (@AaronNagler) May 15, 2025