Curiously, here were the top 3 ranked QBs in 2024 at 20+ yard passing efficiency under little to no pressure:
* Michael Penix Jr., ATL --- Catchable Ball: 77%, Off-Target: 23% Rank: #1
* Anthony Richardson, IND --- Catchable Ball: 76%, Off-Target: 24% Rank: #2
* Geno Smith, SEA --- Catchable Ball: 73%, Off-Target: 27% Rank: #3
Top 3 receivers on ATL, IND and SEA:
ATL: Drake London (4.56), Darnell Mooney (4.38), Ray-Ray McCloud (4.53) = 2,969 yds, 15 TDs
IND: Alec Pierce (4.33), Michael Pittman Jr. (4.52), Josh Downs (4.48) = 2,435 yds, 15 TDs
SEA: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (4.48), D.K. Metcalf (4.33), Tyler Lockett (4.40) = 2,722 yds, 13 TDs
Per @FantasyPtsData:
In Michael Penix Jr’s 3 starts last season, Drake London averaged 23.0 PPG with:
• 39% target share (13 targets/game)
• 50.6% air yards share
• 0.41 TPRR
• 45.1% first-read rate
• 25.1 XFP/G
The Penix-to-London connection in 2025 will feed families. https://t.co/f7K5RRq8Nv
— Theo Gremminger (@TheOGfantasy) May 20, 2025
Geno Smith’s receivers dropped 121 passes in 2024.
Bryce Young, Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes 20+ yard throws with little to no pressure in 2024:
Young: Catchable Ball: 60%, Off-Target: 40% Rank: #10
Murray: Catchable Ball: 51%, Off-Target: 49% Rank: #24
Mahomes: catchable Ball: 50%; Off-Target: 47% Rank: #25
Most dropped air yards on on-target throws:
1. BRYCE YOUNG - 210
2. Bo Nix - 163
3. Baker Mayfield - 132
4. Derek Carr - 128
5. Geno Smith - 123 https://t.co/FRR7PZzKWt
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) May 20, 2025
Surprising to see Bryce Young passing for higher 20+ yard percentages with clean pockets than Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes, isn’t it?
Young was impressively efficient versus the Cardinals during the Panthers’ 36-30 OT win:
Bryce Young: QBR: 81.9; RTG: 107.5
Kyler Murray: QBR: 57.7; RTG: 77.9
Top 3 WRs on CAR, ARI, KC:
CAR: Adam Thielen (4.45), Xavier Leggett (4.39), Jalen Coker (4.57) = 1,690 yds, 11 TDs
ARI: Trey McBride (4.54), Marvin Harrison Jr. (n/a), Michael Wilson (4.58) = 2,579 yds, 14 TDs
KC: Travis Kelce (4.61), Xavier Worthy (4,21), Noah Gray (4.62) = 1,898 yds, 14 TDs
Note: both CAR and KC have sub 4.4 burners and yet the Cardinals put up significantly more passing yards with their top 3 receivers than the Chiefs and Panthers**.**
Do teams need a true sub 4.40 burner to open up their passing games?
2024 Top 10 Leaders in 20+ and 40+ “Explosive” Passing Completions:
SF —- 77 —- Kittle (4.52), Jennings (4.72), Sanders (4.48)
MIN —- 74 —- Jefferson (4.43), Addison (4.49), Hockenson (4.70)
DET —- 73 —- St. Brown (4.61), Williams (4.48*), LaPorta (4.59) * pre-draft following injury
GB —- 73 —- Reed (4.45), Kraft (4.69), Watson (4.36)
BAL —- 70 —- Flowers (4.42), Bateman (4.39), Andrews (4.67)
BUF —- 67 —- Shakir (4.43), Coleman (4.61), Kincaid (4.71)
TB —- 63 —- Evans (4.53), Otten (4.63), Godwin (4.42)
PIT —- 63 —- Pickens (4.47), Freiermuth (4.72), Austin (4.32)
ATL —- 62 —- London (4.56), Mooney (4.38), McCloud (4.53)
JAX — 62 —- Thomas (4.33), Strange (4.70), Washington (4.49)
Speed at WR is certainly an asset. Interestingly, of the top 10 most explosive passing teams in 2024, the only sub 4.0 WR to lead his team in receiving was Jaguars’ rookie Brian Thomas. Nine of the 10 top passing offenses have a TE as one of their top 3 receivers. Only 2 sub 4.0 WRs were 2nd in receiving, while the other 2 were third. Of 30 top receivers, only 5 are sub 4.0 burners.
One may argue that a 4.3 burner can indeed open up his offense for all the other receivers. And that is certainly a valid point. But, in today’s NFL with defenses employing a hefty mixture of Cover 2 and Cover 3 schemes, the primary intent is to try to thwart “explosive” passing plays.
Here is an excellent 2-minute explanation by Solomon Wilcots of why Cover 2 has been trending big-time in today’s NFL. (click on link)
NFL 101: The Cover-2 Defense - YouTube
Cause and Effect of Cover 2:
Because Cover 2 defenses are so prevalent, offenses are countering by trying to attack the intermediate areas of the field behind the linebacker and in front of the safeties. This is why the majority of top yardage receivers in the game today are WRs and TEs who are often “flexed’ into the slot.
2024 NFL Top 10 Receiving Leaders:
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN
WR Amon-Ra St, Brown, DET
TE Brock Bowers, LV
TE Trey McBride, ARI
WR Malik Nabers, NYG
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ
WR Drake London, ATL
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA
Note: All of these receivers were used heavily in the slot, including Ja’Marr Chase, who amassed over 400 yards from the slot in 2024.
Go Route Leaders:
Highest rates of Go Routes among WRs
[2024, min. 250 routes, @FantasyPtsData]
1. Mike Williams - 35.0%
2. Tre Tucker - 29.2%
3. Mack Hollins - 28.6%
4. Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 27.4%
5. Keon Coleman - 27.3%
6. George Pickens - 26.8%
7. Garrett Wilson - 26.7%
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) April 15, 2025
Note: None of these WRs were on one of the top 5 offenses in the NFL.
ROTB Poll:
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Do the Cardinals absolutely need a sub 4.4 burner on offense in order to win in 2025?
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