Newcastle United are just one win away from Champions League qualification - but so are most of their main rivals for European football.
With the relegation places and champions having already been decided, the battle for a top-five finish is the only thing that has any jeopardy heading into the final day of the season. Newcastle United, fortunately, know their task is simple. Beat Everton and Champions League football will return to St James' Park.
Any other result opens the door for their opponents to swoop in an afternoon that will be full of twists and turns. An added complication comes with Chelsea heading to the City Ground to face Forest in a match that could act as a straight shootout between the Blues and Tricky Trees - although results elsewhere could still impact that.
So what do the stats experts believe will happen on Sunday? Are they predicting a return to the Champions League for Newcastle United - or do they think they will miss out on finishing in the top five?
OPTA’s Premier League predictions
According to Opta, Eddie Howe’s side will do enough to finish in the top-five and secure Champions League qualification on Sunday. Their model, correct as of Wednesday evening, has Newcastle United finishing in 4th place - the position they will enter Sunday sat in.
Manchester City, who will begin the weekend sat a place and two points above them in the Premier League table, will also get the result required to ensure they finish third - at least according to the experts. Below Newcastle United, though, is where things get interesting.
According to Opta, it will be Aston Villa who sneak into the top-five on Sunday, at the expense of Chelsea. Villa, who face a trip to Old Trafford, are expected to win that game with the Blues set to come unstuck against Nuno Espirito Santo’s side.
The model is predicting that Chelsea and Forest will draw their clash at the City Ground - a result that won’t do either team’s hopes of qualifying for the Champions League any favours. Forest know that they must defeat Chelsea on Sunday and hope that one of Newcastle or Villa drop points against Everton or Manchester United to finish in the top five. The two-time European champions have been in the top portion of the Premier League for the majority of the season, but a late season stumble could cost them a return to Europe’s premier competition.
Newcastle United, meanwhile, have enjoyed a remarkable second half of the season turnaround and have forced themselves into the Champions League picture by picking up 46 points in their last 22 matches having defeated Chelsea and Nottingham Forest at St James’ Park in that time.
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