I did a quick analysis of the QB play from 2024 a few months back, but this is going to be much more in-depth.
There were six QBs drafted in the top 12 in 2024, but two did not play or did not play enough to qualify for this analysis (200 passing attempts). Bo Nix, for those who haven’t been paying attention, was the sixth QB drafted in the 2024 NFL Draft. Spencer Rattler was the other rookie QB who had enough passes to qualify - he was not drafted in the first round. This is going to use PFR advanced passing data and SISdatahub.com advanced passing data to compare all starting QBs from 2024, but there will be a focus on the rookies for comparative purposes.
For the PFR data I used 150 passing attempts which meant that 46 QBs qualified. For SIS I used 200 passing attempts so 39 QBs qualified. I didn’t realize the difference until I was well into the study, but I don’t think it makes a huge difference in the analysis.
NFL NextGen Stats has a heat map for each starting QB with direction and distance. Bo Nix’ heat map is below. Green is good, yellow is average, red is bad. While Bo only had three green zones, he also only had one red zone.
This graphic uses the old passer rating which has plenty of issues. For comparison, below are the same charts for Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams. Daniels had five green zones and two red zones. Williams had six green zones and three red zones. So Bo was more consistent, than either, having less bad but also less good.
Drake Maye was the only one of the “Big 6” who had more red zones than green zones as a rookie starter.
The first table shows how often QBs were on-target with their throws in 2024. I have highlighted the rookies. I was surprised at how often Williams was off-target, but his OL was terrible in 2024 so maybe he will improve in 2025.
Bo Nix was 20th with an on-target rate of 76.6%. Geno Smith was the best at 81.8% and Anthony Richardson was the worst at 58.0. He was a big step below Michael Penix at 67.0 The only rookie who was more on-target than Nix was Jayden Daniels.
Bo Nix was not pressured very much at 17.1% which was the 6th lowest. This was mostly a function of his good OL, but it was also a function of his ability to move in the pocket to avoid pressure. Tua Tagovailoa was the QB with the lowest pressure rate at 13.3%, but that was mainly a function of how quickly he has to throw in the Dolphin offense. Jacoby Brissett was the most frequently pressured QB at 33.0%.
Nix was hit at the 6th lowest rate at 5.3%. Tua was hit at the lowest rate 2.6%. Limp Brissett was hit at the highest rate at 14.9%.
Nix had a high percentage of throws behind the LOS (BLOS) at 24.6%. That was second only to Tua who had 27.6% of his passes BLOS. Jameis Winston had the lowest level at 8.7%.
Bo was 31st in short throw %, 35th in intermediate throw % and 15th in deep throw %. Bo Nix was 11th in BLOS comp% at 87.3%. Drake Maye had the best BLOS comp% at 96.7%. He completed 58 of 60 passes behind the LOS, but I don’t know if they counted “beached throws” where the QB throws it into the ground in front of the receiver on a screen to keep him was losing yards on the catch.
Winston was the worst on BLOS comp% at 60.0%. Nix had the second most BLOS attempts at 134 with only Patrick Mahomes (136) having more. In terms of SIS proprietary QB rating (IQR), Nix was 6th in BLOS IQR. Brock Purdy had the highest BLOS IQR at 113. Winston had the lowest at 49.
The vast majority of Nix’ BLOS throws were in the middle of the field (68%), but that was about average. Purdy had 87% of his BLOS throws in the middle of the field which was the highest. Bryce Young’s 49% was the lowest.
In terms of short throws, Nix was 27th in IQR. He tended to focus on the middle of the field with 63% of his short throws in the middle. Joe Burrow had 363 short passing attempts and he led the league with 57.7% of his short throws being to the middle of the field. The short left percentages ranged from 10 to 31%. The short right percentages ranged 11 to 30%.
Lamar Jackson had the best short IQR at 125 and Richardson had the worst at 70. Jalen Hurts had the best short completion percentage at 83.1%. Nix’ 74.2% was about average.
Bo’s ability to throw intermediate passes as a rookie was near the bottom of the league. Bo’s intermediate IQR was 78 which was 20th. Russell Wilson had the best intermediate IQR at 143, but he only had 39 intermediate attempts. For comparison Burrow had 134.
Mason Rudolph and Tua had the highest percentage of middle intermediate throws at 68%. Mac Jones 37% was the lowest. Intermediate left percentages ranged from 12 to 34%. To the right the low was 13 and the high was 42%.
Josh Allen had the most deep throws with 69 and Justin Herbert had the best deep IQR at 113. Spencer Rattler had the worst deep IQR at 23. Bo’s deep throws were split relatively evenly in terms of left, middle, and right. Bo’s deep IQR was 82, which was 19th.
Joe Flacco avoided the middle on deep throws only using the middle on 13% of his deep targets while Drake Maye and Sam Darnold had the highest percentage at 52%. Daniel Jones 59% was the highest deep left percentage while Drake Maye stayed away from the deep left (14%). Aaron Rodgers had the highest deep right percentage at 53% while Rudolph had the lowest at 19%. Of course Rudolph only had 16 deep throws so his data is limited.