Aston Villa are the worst run club in the Premier League. I am not just talking about in PSR terms, but actually in normal, running a business terms.
Their owners took a huge risk, gambling the clubs future and overspending in the hope they would become regulars in the Champions League.
Last season, their wage to turnover ratio was 96%. That means for every £1 they earned, 0.96p was spent on wages. In comparison, Arsenal’s was 53%, Manchester City 57% and Liverpool 63%. That leaves 4p in the pound to spend on other costs such as transfers and keeping the lights on.
Now some (including Aston Villa fans) will say that this is showing ambition. But what it actually is unsustainable. The owners can only continue to find ways to prop the club up for so long.
And it does not take much for everything to collapse. And that “not much” has happened.
Not getting Champions League football is a disaster for Aston Villa. It will cost them in the region of £100m in broadcasting revenue, sponsorship and gate receipts.
Following last season foray in the Champions League, their owners would have been banking on the club consistently breaking into Europe’s premier competition. And with the consistent additional revenue, that wages to turnover ratio would quickly drop.
Instead, Villa collapsed on the final day and they are facing serious financial trouble. The gamble did not pay off.
Clubs will now be circling around Villa, who clearly have to sell to not only stay within PSR rules, but also just to survive. If they do not bring in quick revenue from transfers and lower that wage bill, they will be in serious trouble. And again, this is not serious trouble due to PSR, it is serious trouble because they can not afford to keep overspending.
I am sure Arsenal will be looking at Villa and considering what bargains we could grab.
Boubacar Kamara
The defensive midfielder signed for Aston Villa in 2022 for around £22m. He currently has a book value of £8.8m – which means that selling him for anything over this figure will be considered profit in the accounts.
The 25-year-old has two years left on his current contract, with talks rumoured to have stalled following Villa’s failure to qualify for the Champions League. Talk is that he could be shipped off to Saudi Arabia.
On a salary of £150k a week, Kamara is one of Aston Villa’s top earners. His high salary combined with his low book value makes him a prime option to be sold.
A solid defensive midfielder, Kamara could be available for as little as £30m if he turns down the advances of Saudi. He could be a viable option to replace Thomas Parety should the Ghanian depart.
Ollie Watkins
The boyhood Arsenal fan.
Watkins was extremely close to joining Arsenal in January. A deal collapsed once Jhon Duran’s move to Saudi Arabia was confirmed.
Now 29, you feel this summer might be the last opportunity for Watkins to get his move to a big club, having seen his career progress from League Two to the Premier League in just 3 seasons.
Watkins joined Villa in 2020 for £28m, and signed a new deal in 2023 taking him through 2028. He currently has a book value of around £7m. Like with Kamara, any sale over this figure would be profit.
The English striker earns around £130k a week, making him Villa’s 6th highest paid player.
Whilst Villa will not want to lose their talisman, having seen Duran also leave in January, they have recently recruited Donyell Malen. And a Watkins departure could free up the cash to bring back Marcus Rashford.
Whilst Rashford may cost Villa more in wages and transfer fee, £30-40m in profit hitting their books would far outweigh what Rashford would cost in a single season (amortised transfer fee + wages). And as we have seen with Villa’s owners, they are short termist and how they afford Rashford from 2026/27 will be “next years problem”.
“Where does Watkins fit is” will be the headache for Arsenal.
Were we to sign Benjamin Sesko or Viktor Gyokeres, we would not necessarily need a 3rd striker (alongside Kai Havertz, and discounting Gabriel Jesus). but that would not mean a deal for Watkins would be off the table.
Watkins has played out left for much of his career, and even as a striker he has tended to drift to the left hand side ala Thierry Henry.
I can certainly see him being a left-sided forward option, playing a little more inside than Gabriel Martinelli, off the big man up top. He would then find that space between centre back and right back and unleash terror as a finisher rather than a creator.
Watkins would also be an option up top. An alternative problem to a Sesko or Havertz.
There would certainly be enough games to accommodate Sesko, Havertz, Watkins and Martinelli in the squad.
Amadou Onana
In Kamara, Onana, John McGinn, Youri Tielemans and Ross Barkley, Aston Villa are well stocked in the central midfield area.
Kamara earns more than Onana and has a lower book value, enabling Villa to clear more profit. He would be their first option to be sold.
However, if Arsenal prefer Onana as a replacement for Partey, a deal could also happen.
Onana only joined Villa last summer for £50m, so still has a book value of £40m. That would mean an offer close to £70m would be needed to give them the same “profit” as what selling Kamara would be.
I would be surprised if Arsenal would stretch to £70m having secured Martin Zubimendi for £50m. Whoever comes in will basically be Zubimendi’s alternative. However, if things get desperate for Villa, they may be forced to sell for closer to £40m just to get Onana’s salary off the wage bill.
Morgan Rogers
The Englishman had his breakthrough season last year, and in the second half of the season he began to get the goals and assists thto back up his dynamic play.
Turning 23 in July, Rogers joined Villa for just £8m 18 months ago, meaning he has a very low book value.
Whilst Villa would not want to see him go – he is deemed the future of the club from an attacking point of view, they might have no choice over the matter. An offer over £60m might be too much for them to turn down considering the considerable profit it will allow Villa to bank.
In terms of fitting in at Arsenal, Rogers best performances have come centrally as a dynamic, ball carrying attacking midfielder. He has bundles of talent and you could certainly see him adapting to playing out wide on the left hand side, with the licence to cut inside and influence the game more centrally.
Mikel Arteta will like Rogers versatility, and he would certainly be an upgrade on Leandro Trossard as a man who can cover all attacking positions – at wide, centrally and up top.
The sticking point would be wether he is enough of an upgrade on Gabriel Martinelli to justify us spending £60m+ on him. I am not sure he is.
Anyone else from the Villa team you would take? Let us know in the comments (just do not reply with the clown of a keeper they have who cost them Champions League football).
Keenos