The Durant Gambit: Evaluating a Potential Kevin Durant Trade to Minnesota and What It Really Means for the Timberwolves
There’s a scene in The Departed where Jack Nicholson turns to Matt Damon and says, “When I was your age, they would say you could become cops or criminals. What I’m saying to you is this… when you’re facing the Oklahoma City Thunder next May, do you want to be Rudy Gobert or Kevin Durant?”
Okay, maybe I added the last part, but the point stands: the Minnesota Timberwolves have reached a crossroads. And according to Bobby Marks and ESPN’s entire battalion of NBA trade-hypotheticalists, the Wolves may be ready to choose chaos — the kind of beautiful, big-swing, all-chips-in chaos that could reshape their franchise for a generation.
So let’s talk about this reported trade. The one that might send Kevin Durant — the guy who’s been in as many NBA soap operas as All-Star Games — to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Rudy Gobert, Donte DiVincenzo, and Rob Dillingham.
You read that right. KD to the Wolves. A guy who’s played 17 seasons with a 27.2 PPG scoring average and made Twitter his second career. A future Hall of Famer for a 32-year-old defensive anchor, a bench sniper who got torched like a cornfield in the OKC series, and a promising but undersized rookie who weighs about as much as the Timberwolves’ playoff hopes in 2015.
At first glance? Feels like a heist. Like Ocean’s 11: Tim Connelly Edition. But let’s dig deeper — like, really dig in — and see whether this trade makes Minnesota a title contender or just a franchise once again stuck just shy of the upper echelon.
The Trade: KD to the Wolves
Outgoing: Rudy Gobert, Donte DiVincenzo, Rob Dillingham
Incoming: Kevin Durant
Yes, this is a fantasy trade. But it’s not fantasy-land. It was actually the top pick from ESPN’s Bobby Marks in the trade proposal column. And once it hits ESPN dot com? That toothpaste isn’t going back in the tube.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Minnesota doesn’t give up any of the core guys that matter most — Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid. That’s massive. That’s the bar. That’s the prerequisite to even start this conversation. Trading KD for a bunch of aging role players and a backup point guard isn’t sexy for Phoenix, but given the current state of their roster, it might be the best they can do.
Gobert brings defensive respectability. DiVincenzo brings floor spacing. Dillingham brings hope (and a rookie deal). That’s something.
For the Wolves? This is what we call a “heat check trade.” You’ve got a 23-year-old budding superstar in Ant Edwards who thinks he’s the best player in the world (and might be right), and you’re giving him a veteran co-star who can drop 30 on command and has actually been there. In fact, Durant’s been everywhere — and scored efficiently at every stop.
But of course for any trade to work, the numbers have to pan out. Thankfully for the Timberwolves, they do.
Trade Details
Wolves Receive: Kevin Durant ($54,708,720, final year of 4-year, $198M contract).
Wolves Send: Rudy Gobert ($35,000,000, 3-year, $109.5M extension), Donte DiVincenzo ($12,189,000), Rob Dillingham ($6,265,560, rookie scale at 120%).
Outgoing Salaries: $35,000,000 + $12,189,000 + $6,265,560 = $53,454,560.
Incoming Salary: $54,708,720.
Salary Match: Within 100% for teams over the first apron (difference: $1,254,160, under $5M trade exception).
Re-Signings
Julius Randle: Opts out of $30,935,520 player option, re-signs for 4 years, $100M ($25M/year, starting at $25M in 2025-26, flat structure for simplicity).
Naz Reid: Opts out of $15,022,464 player option, re-signs for 4 years, $88M ($22M/year, starting at $22M in 2025-26).
Bird Rights: Used to sign both over the cap.
Financial Breakdown
Guaranteed Contracts
Post-trade roster, with club options assumed exercised for cost-effective depth:
Anthony Edwards: $45,550,512
Jaden McDaniels: $27,648,276
Mike Conley: $10,369,380
Joe Ingles: $3,477,351
Terrence Shannon Jr.: $3,432,360 (#27 pick, 120% rookie scale)
Josh Minott: $2,196,970 (club option, exercised)
Luka Garza: $2,405,760 (club option, exercised)
Jaylen Clark: $2,109,840 (club option, estimated, exercised)
Kevin Durant: $54,708,720 (acquired via trade)
Subtotal: $151,899,169
Re-Signed Players
Julius Randle: $25,000,000 (new 4-year, $100M deal)
Naz Reid: $22,000,000 (new 4-year, $88M deal)
Subtotal: $47,000,000
Draft Picks
#17 Pick (via Detroit): $3,800,000 (estimated, based on 2024-25 rookie scale adjusted for 10% cap growth).
#31 Pick: $1,900,000 (estimated, based on 2024-25 second-round contracts).
Subtotal: $5,700,000
Free Agents (Cap Holds)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: $8,906,250 (190% of $4,687,500, UFA). Renounced.
P.J. Dozier: $2,000,000 (estimated, 200% of minimum, UFA). Renounced.
Subtotal: $0 (all cap holds renounced).
Incomplete Roster Charge
Charge: 13 players exceed the 12-player minimum; no charge ($1,223,000 per spot below 12).
Subtotal: $0
Total Payroll
Calculation: $151,899,169 (guaranteed) + $47,000,000 (Randle/Reid) + $5,700,000 (#17/#31 picks) = $204,599,169.
Cap Status
Salary Cap ($154.6M): $204,599,169 - $154,600,000 = $49,999,169 over, no cap space.
Luxury Tax ($187.9M): $204,599,169 - $187,900,000 = $16,699,169 over, incurring tax ($1.50-$4.25 per dollar, ~$25M-$71M).
First Apron ($195.6M): $204,599,169 - $195,600,000 = $8,999,169 over, limiting MLE to Taxpayer ($5.45M) and restricting trades (100% salary match).
Second Apron ($207.8M): $207,800,000 - $204,599,169 = $3,200,831 under, preserving trade flexibility (e.g., aggregating contracts, sign-and-trades).
Let’s talk basketball now that we’ve completed the the cap gymnastics. Because on paper, you’re pairing Anthony Edwards, a who’s been billed as the second-coming of Jordan, with Kevin Durant, who once outdueled LeBron in an NBA Finals and made it look like a rec-league mismatch.
In this scenario, you’re retaining Naz Reid, a modern, stretch-five, motor-humming big man who has a fan cult more devout than the Swifties. You also re-sign Julius Randle, who can bully-ball you 82 nights a year — turning him from the team’s second option into the third. Jaden McDaniels remains your defensive ace. And you’ve still got Mike Conley, basketball’s version of a warm cup of coffee — consistent, reliable, maybe not exciting, but gets the job done.
Projected Starting Lineup (Post-Trade)
PG: Mike Conley
SG: Anthony Edwards
SF: Jaden McDaniels
PF: Kevin Durant
C: Naz Reid/Julius Randle (We’ll leave this to Chris Finch to sort out...)
That’s terrifying offensively. There’s enough shot creation, shooting, and IQ to run any defense ragged. This isn’t “double-Ant and pray the others don’t kill you.” This is “Pick your poison — do you want Durant to pull up from 30 or Edwards to dunk on your soul?”
But the big, glaring red flag is the point guard position. You’re losing Dillingham (a project), DiVincenzo (a shooter), and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (gone in free agency). Conley’s 37 and held together with kinesiology tape and magnesium. Who’s backing him up? Seriously. If Conley tweaks an ankle in December, is the offense being run by... Jaylen Clark?
That’s like handing the wheel of a Bugatti to your 14-year-old cousin because he beat you in Mario Kart once.
You have to use one of your draft picks — #17 or #31 — or the sliver of second-apron space to acquire a competent vet. Someone who can eat minutes, keep the offense organized, and not throw the ball into the fifth row when KD’s clapping for it on the wing.
The Gobert Factor
Let’s be real: Rudy Gobert has been the Timberwolves’ version of the Tesla Cybertruck — looks different, was wildly expensive, occasionally impressive, often confusing, and nobody really knows if it works in the long run.
Gobert still anchored one of the best defenses in the NBA. He’s still elite at rebounding and rim protection. But he’s also 32, fairly expensive, and gets played off the floor by switch-heavy teams like OKC. In the Conference Finals, Gobert wasn’t just exposed — he was targeted. Constantly. The Thunder are a team the Wolves will be dealing with for years to come, and it’s not clear that Gobert offers an answer to getting past them.
Durant isn’t the same defender as the Stifle Tower, but he’s not bad. He can still switch, contest, and play the 4 or even small-ball 5 when needed. He doesn’t erase mistakes like Rudy, but he makes fewer of his own.
This trade is less about defense and more about trust. Who do you trust in a Game 6, down three with a minute to go? Edwards and Durant, or Edwards and Gobert? Exactly.
Depth Chart Crisis
This deal guts the Wolves’ backcourt, no question. You lose Donte and Rob in addition to the pending free-agency loss of NAW. That’s three guys who provided depth and ball-handling.
This is where the front office earns its paycheck. Tim Connelly can’t just call it a day once the ink dries on the Durant deal. He needs to utilize the #17 and #31 picks to bring in a real bench piece. Use Joe Ingles’ expiring. Sign one or two ring-chasers. If they do this right, they can be 9-deep by April. If they don’t, it’s Ant and KD playing 42 minutes and hoping their hamstrings hold.
The Long Game: Durant’s Future
Durant’s under contract for 2025-26, but after that? It’s extension time. You absolutely do not — I repeat, do not — make this trade unless you have some level of handshake agreement with KD that he’ll extend for two more years at a manageable number.
If KD re-signs at a manageable number (say, $45M per year instead of $60M), and Conley’s money comes off the books, you suddenly have some real flexibility to build out the fringe pieces of your roster. That’s a real three-year window with Ant, Durant, Randle, Jaden, and Naz. That’s a real core. That’s a contender.
Final Verdict
So let’s go back to that Departed quote.
Do you want to be safe and stay the course with Rudy and a Conference Finals ceiling?
Or do you want to chase greatness, throw your chips into the center, and dare the basketball gods to bless you with a title run?
Gun to my head?
I make the trade.
I hold my breath.
And I pray that a core of Anthony Edwards and Kevin Durant is enough to swing the balance of power in the West.
You don’t get many shots like this in the NBA. When one comes your way, you better be ready to take it.
Even if it means losing Rudy Gobert.
Even if it means praying that Mike Conley’s hip doesn’t explode.
Even if it means rolling the dice on KD’s 37-year-old body.
Because if it works?
It could be legendary.