The Cardinals moved on from Kliff Kingsbury two years ago and brought in former Eagles defensive coordinator **Jonathan Gannon** to replace him. Arizona went 4-13 in Gannon’s first year on the headset, but **Kyler Murray** missed most of that season while recovering from a torn ACL. It wasn’t a fair fight. The real test came in 2024 when the team was at full strength. Gannon and Co. didn’t necessarily pass.
**2024 Stats (Rank)**
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**Points per game:** 23.5 (12th)
**Total yards per game:** 358.2 (11th)
**Plays per game:** 60.9 (21st)
**Dropbacks per game:** 38.7 (20th)
**Dropback EPA per play:** 0.13 (12th)
**Rush attempts per game:** 27.2 (11th)
**Rush EPA per play:** -0.02 (8th)
Do or die for Jonathan Gannon and Kyler Murray
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Murray struggled to take the next step under OC **Drew Petzing** in 2024 and the team lumbered to an 8-9 record. Arizona was an efficient offense, ranking 10th in EPA per play, but refused to open up the playbook, opting for a balanced offense without much ceiling. They finished the season 18th in pace and pass rate over expected.
To be a strong fantasy offense, you can either be methodical and hyper-efficient or fast with more room for error. Arizona was neither, leaving Murray to finish the year as the QB10. TE **Trey McBride** excelled as the focal point of the passing attack but didn’t leave enough volume for rookie WR **Marvin Harrison Jr.** to pay off his lofty WR9 ADP.
Arizona fared much worse on defense, Gannon’s side of the ball. They ranked outside of the top 20 teams in EPA allowed per play, dropback, and carry. The Cardinals blitzed at the fourth-highest rate but ranked 26th in pressure rate. To Gannon’s defense, the former Eagle inherited one of the league’s worst defenses when he moved out west. The Cardinals have spent their pair of top 10 picks on **Paris Johnson Jr.** and MHJ, both offensive players, since hiring Gannon.
Passing Game
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**QB:** Kyler Murray, Jacoby Brissett
**WR:** Marvin Harrison Jr., Zay Jones
**WR:** Michael Wilson, Quez Watkins
**WR:** Greg Dortch, Simi Fehoko
**TE:** Trey McBride, Tip Reiman
After getting his first offseason in Petzing’s offense under his belt last summer, Murray was consistently pegged as a fantasy breakout waiting to happen. The addition of MHJ should have supercharged Murray’s passing output on top of his elite rushing ceiling. Instead, fantasy managers were treated to another high-variance season where the highs failed to outweigh the lows. Murray finished as a top five fantasy option in five weeks and finished outside the top 20 just as many times. He was still a top-flight runner, amassing 572 yards and five scores on the ground. There was simply no explosion in his passing output. Murray threw for more than two touchdowns twice and topped 300 yards as many times. Neither happened in the same game. He threw deep on 10.2 percent of his attempts and targeted the 10-to-19-yard range on 20.1 percent of his throws. Those marks ranked 28th and 23rd among qualified quarterbacks. Between McBride operating primarily as an underneath option and Harrison Jr. providing next to no YAC, Arizona generated 4.9 explosive passing plays per game, good for the 23rd-most in the NFL. Murray still deserves a spot in the QB1 ranks, but we know what he is at this point, and that isn’t a superstar.
Simms’ ’25 QB Countdown: Kyler Murray
Chris Simms explains to Ahmed Fareed why Kyler Murray is in his "Want To Touch The Hiney" tier of his 2025 QB Countdown, due to his high potential but ongoing areas for improvement.
Moving on to the highlight of the passing game, McBride was simply unstoppable as an easy-button target for Murray. McBride led the NFL with 70 receptions between zero and nine yards downfield. He finished second in yards (672) on these looks, trailing only fellow TE **Brock Bowers**. McBride was a top five tight end in yards per route run, Pro Football Focus receiving grade, and ESPN’s Open Score. His 111 receptions were the fourth-most for a tight end in NFL history. It wasn’t a perfect season for the third-year tight end. He infamously went 127 targets without a receiving touchdown, finding the end zone through the air for the first time in Week 17. However, his touchdown woes weren’t caused by a lack of effort from Arizona or Kyler. McBride led all tight ends with 13 targets inside the 10-yard line. There have been 66 tight ends to have 100 targets in back-to-back seasons since 2000. Only seven scored three or fewer times in the first season. Those seven averaged 6.1 touchdowns in the following season. Please ignore the fact that McBride is the only example within that group to score fewer touchdowns in the second season, which he did from 2023 to 2024.
And we’re already onto the lowlight of Arizona’s air attack, Harrison Jr. The No. 5 overall pick was billed as an always-open, chain-mover who won with an incredible combination of size and route running. Instead of using him in a way that accentuated his strengths, Petzing deployed him as a decoy, clearing out space for McBride and the rest of the pass-catchers. Of the 38 wide receivers to see at least 100 targets last year, only **DK Metcalf** and **Calvin Ridley** had a higher aDOT than MHJ’s mark of 14.2. The lack of work underneath was compounded by the fact that Murray was not a particularly good deep passer. He ranked 25th in PFF passing grade on deep shots with a 34.5 adjusted percent completion rate. Harrison Jr., on the other hand, might not be cut out of for short-area looks.
MHJ is one of just three players to break one tackle on 100+ targets in a single season over the past eight years. With how much Arizona invested in Marv, it’s hard to imagine them not getting him more involved as an intermediate option. Will he improve enough to pay off his WR15 ADP this year? It’s a tall order given how much his role needs to change in one offseason.
There wasn’t much fantasy output to be had further down the depth chart. Slot specialist **Greg Dortch** has seemingly hit his ceiling in the pros, falling between 280 and 467 yards in each of the past three seasons. He split the difference in 2024 with 342 yards on 37 grabs. Former third-round pick **Michael Wilson** also gave us more of the same in his second season. He totaled 565 yards on 38 grabs as a rookie and went for 548 yards on 47 receptions last year, albeit with three more games played. Wilson is a contested-catch artist who doesn’t have the speed to put distance between himself and opposing corners. He reeled in an impressive 61 percent of his contested looks in 2024 but ranked outside the top 100 wideouts in Open Score. He will give fantasy managers a few spike weeks this year. Predicting when they will hit is a fool’s errand.
Running Game
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**RB:** James Conner, Trey Benson, Emari Demercado, Michael Carter
**OL (L-R):** Paris Johnson Jr., Evan Brown, Hjalte Froholdt, Isaiah Adams, Jonah Williams
Anchored by 2023 No. 6 overall pick **Paris Johnson**, the Cardinals had an above-average line in PFF’s run blocking grade and the No. 11 unit in ESPN’s run block win rate. They averaged 1.5 yards before contact per carry, the sixth-best mark in the league. **James Conner** shouldered the bulk of the workload with 23 carries for 1,094 yards and eight scores. PFF graded him as a top-five runner and he finished inside the top 20 in yards after contact per carry, as well as Next Gen’s rush yards over expected. Conner has taken off as a rusher over the past two seasons, but 2024 saw his receiving role blossom. He corralled 47 passes for 414 yards at a strong 1.5 yards per route run. Despite missing a game, Conner closed out the year as an RB1. He is a safe bet to repeat that feat if nothing changes.
Conner still holds No. 1 RB role with Cardinals
Matthew Berry shares some of the rumors he heard at the 2025 NFL Scouting Combine, including why the Arizona Cardinals "love" James Conner and still expect him to be their starting running back in 2025.
**Trey Benson** will be looking to throw a wrench in Conner’s RB1 candidacy this year after playing scarcely as a rookie. The No. 66 overall pick in 2024 only saw 63 attempts last year and missed the final three games with an ankle injury. On the bright side, Benson flashed on his limited workload with 14 missed tackles forced and 3.3 yards after contact per attempt. Benson operated as a committee back in college but was absurdly explosive in that role, averaging .4 missed tackles forced per carry with a breakaway run rate of 12.6 percent. If the Cardinals want to keep Conner fresh and healthy for the entire season—he did miss Week 18 with a knee injury—using Benson as a part-time speed back makes sense.
Win Total
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**DraftKings Over/Under: 8.5**
**Pick: Under (-110)**
An 8.5 win total with even juice on both sides is as middle of the road as it gets for a win total. I don’t have a strong take, but given the NFC West competition, I’m inclined to bet on the under. The L.A. Rams lost both of its superstar receivers to stints on injured reserve last year. That isn’t likely to happen again and they upgraded from **Cooper Kupp** to **Davante Adams.** The 49ers lost nearly every notable contributor on offense at some point. Not everyone is going to stay healthy, but their injury luck should improve after bottoming out last year. In a division with two Super Bowl hopefuls, I don’t see Arizona rising to the occasion in 2024.