Jaylen Brown underwent right meniscus surgery last week that put him in position to return in time for Celtics training camp. If Boston retains Brown this summer, he’ll become entrusted with maintaining the team’s competitiveness for as long as one full season without Jayson Tatum. But the nature of achilles tears could create an even longer period until Tatum returns to full form.
Since Tatum entered the NBA — only one year after Brown — he immediately assumed a significant role. The past seven seasons left a limited sample size of what life without Tatum looks like where Brown leads the offense. Brown infamously struggled after Tatum suffered an ankle injury on the first possession of the east finals in 2023, turning the ball over eight times in the eventual 103-84 loss. The Celtics extended Brown anyway for the full super max following an All-NBA season, five-years, $285.4 million, a contract that continues through 2028-29.
It paid off with a championship, and Brown grew connected with the Boston community through local initiatives.
Tatum also begins his super max this year at $54.1 million, a ginormous deal with a $71.4 million player option in 2029-30. Those contracts intended to make star players that teams drafted and developed easier to retain through the ability to offer the most money by far. Then, the NBA and player’s union instituted heavier luxury tax hits and transaction restrictions on the most expensive teams. They made it extremely difficult to build a roster around two super max players. So there’s a legitimate chance that this offseason could see the two stars split up.
Brad Stevens made his north star building around Brown and Tatum through significant roster changes from 2022-2024, overhauling most of the team around them instead. He stayed patient while calls heightened to break up Brown and Tatum, and it culminated in the 2024 title. Brown improved tremendously as a playmaker that season, held the line in minutes where Tatum sat out and emerged as the east finals and NBA Finals MVP with an aggressive style that gave Boston a change-of-pace even if he didn’t perfectly complement Tatum.
This year, a rotation change impacted Brown’s rhythm alongside various injuries. He played through them, reaching career heights, his Game 5 masterpiece against the Knicks, in the same week as lows, a Game 6 on-ball letdown. But he did not qualify or command consideration for All-NBA, which he last reached in 2023.
The path ahead
Surgery should alleviate many of Brown’s physical concerns in the near term, though arthritis and other meniscus complications that can emerge from removal surgery could impact him long-term. A 2-3 month recovery typically follows debridement surgery, and while the longer-term full repair isn’t always possible or necessary, it leads to better outcomes.
Medical experts CLNS Media spoke with feared that a bone bruise, which Brown dealt with, could indicate at least some arthritis, while undergoing debridement points toward a central or more complex tear. The Celtics listed his injury as a posterior impingement for much of the season, indicating it was near the rear of his right knee, an area more prone to requiring surgery to address symptoms.
The scope can involve removing loose bodies, smoothing rough edges and extra fluid or cysts that led to difficulty moving the knee. That limited burst became apparent throughout the late stages of the season for Brown.
The Celtics will have to ask themselves three questions this offseason: is it possible to rebuild a contending roster around Brown and Tatum over the next 2-3 years, can they receive a significant return for Brown that gives them a chance to, if the answer to the first question is no, and do they have concerns about Brown’s health long-term?
The money
Next year, the Jays represent 70% of the Celtics’ cap, 57% of the luxury tax threshold and just over half of the second apron number. While the cap, tax and aprons will increase at a rate just ahead of those contracts, Boston doesn’t currently have the premium draft picks, high-level prospects or even a younger supporting cast in line with its stars, who remain in their prime despite physical concerns. Those two players, once certainties in the big picture for Boston, quickly turned into the Celtics’ biggest questions.
The Celtics will see through Tatum’s recovery. His age, the surgery’s timing and advances in technique project well toward him eventually returning to a comparable level to before. While Brown could serve as some insurance against Tatum not doing so, or taking longer than expected, both players needed the playmaking, defense and shooting Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Sam Hauser, Kristaps Porziņģis and Al Horford provided to reach championship contention status.
While earlier in their development, the 2020-21 Celtics, who lacked reliable secondary scorers and placed enormous weight on Brown and Tatum to do everything fell to the middle of the east in what became a first round defeat season. Both players are better positioned to do more now, but offloading star role players for luxury tax savings won’t put the team in the best position to win.
Brad Stevens asserted as much when he said the Celtics’ array of good players signed long-term put them in a strong position, refuting the perception they’re poised to just shed salary. Other reporting has pointed against Boston simply making money moves, rather than roster-building ones.
White could command more than that, perhaps elite draft picks and a rising young player or two, but would set up a rebuild, or at least reset, in the back court given Holiday’s age. Porziņģis’ expiring salary and health, alongside Horford and Luke Kornet’s free agencies make some turnover at center inevitable.
Available trades
Brown, if made available, could emerge as the best attainable player this offseason should teams view Kevin Durant as too old and Giannis Antetokounmpo stays in Milwaukee. Would the star-hunting teams become desperate with their offers for Brown?
That’s where Boston would need to consider a trade alongside other scenarios. As painful as it could prove.
The possibilities…
Spurs
The single best return the Celtics could acquire at the moment would be the No. 2 overall pick from the Spurs. While San Antonio doesn’t appear interested in parting with the chance to draft Dylan Harper at the moment, they reportedly have assessed its value in talks with Philadelphia about a trade down to No. 3 overall. Boston’s inability to offer at least a middle-round selection back further challenges the team’s ability to leap up to No. 2. But the Spurs also have the No. 14 overall pick available.
With Stephon Castle almost certainly off the table, the players returning to the Celtics would include some combination of Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan and expiring salaries like Harrison Barnes’. While younger, Vassell, Johnson or Sochan don’t appear to have upside that resembles Brown’s. They’d simply hope to replicate his productivity collectively.
So the Spurs’ package would need to blow Boston away from a draft pick standpoint. They have numerous future selections, including: No. 2 overall, No. 14 overall, a 2026 Hawks pick swap, an unprotected 2027 Hawks pick and most interestingly the Celtics’ own 2028 first-round pick swap rights from the 2022 White trade.
San Antonio also owns its own 2029 pick, 2030 swap rights with the Mavs or Timberwolves, and 2031 swap rights with the Kings. That’s as many as eight first-rounders to select from.
Rockets
The Rockets reportedly stand among several teams most aggressively pursuing Durant. If those talks fall through, they could offer the Celtics a compelling offer for Brown, who’s much younger, though far more expensive than Durant. Boston could definitely acquire the No. 10 overall pick from Houston in a trade. It’s far less likely the Rockets would make budding star Amen Thompson available. Instead, the Celtics would more likely bring back Reed Sheppard, with three years left on his rookie deal, and extension-eligible wings Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason. Smith and Sheppard ranked among the best players in his draft class, while Eason emerged as a dominant defensive stopper alongside Thompson.
Houston also owns 2027 swap rights with the Nets, the Suns’ 2027 unprotected first and swap rights with Phoenix or Dallas in 2029. The Rockets also have their own firsts in 2028, 2030 and 2031. That’s seven picks.
Pistons
The Pistons can remain patient or try to accelerate their timeline this summer, though it currently appears they’ll maintain their current path with no reported connection to trade talks. Tobias Harris’ expiring could slash wing costs, Isaiah Stewart could provide a long-term option at center for Boston while either Jaden Ivey or Ausar Thompson would become the centerpiece of a hypothetical trade that the Celtics would consider. I’m skeptical they’d make either of those players available, even following his leg fracture last year.
Detroit owns its first round picks from 2026-2031.
Pelicans
The Pelicans publicly stood behind Zion Williamson despite his production and health concerns alongside an ongoing lawsuit against him. If they’re interested in consolidating their assets and acquiring another star, they have an enticing prospect in Trey Murphy III, one of the league’s best defensive wings in Herb Jones and an expiring salary in Kelly Olynyk.
Their draft pick haul includes the No. 7 overall pick this month, a highly intriguing 2027 pick swap with the Bucks with Antetokounmpo’s future uncertain and a 2026 Pacers first, 2026 Bucks pick swap and their own firsts from 2028-2031. CJ McCollum’s age and Dejounte Murray tearing his achilles makes contending more complicated for New Orleans in the near term, but other moves could follow this one. McCollum is signed for one-year, $30.6 million.
Clippers
The Clippers stand out as a wild card contender for Brown given their ancillary interest in Durant. They can’t offer much, the same reason a Durant return would become complicated for them, but Norman Powell could become the centerpiece of a trade despite his age (32), Derrick Jones Jr. provides affordable wing depth and the Clippers can trade their 2030 first and a 2031 pick swap. They can’t currently trade the No. 30 overall pick in this draft, due to how many firsts they still owe to the Thunder for Paul George, but could flip the player they select after next week. File this one away as unlikely for the Celtics, who wouldn’t have enough left for Tatum in 2026-27.