Welcome to the sixth article in our Bucks Free Agent Forecast series. If you haven’t been on the site recently, we’ve already done articles on Taurean Prince, Brook Lopez, Kevin Porter Jr., Bobby Portis, and Ryan Rollins. In this one, we’ll look at arguably the biggest free agent the Milwaukee Bucks will look to re-sign, Gary Trent Jr.
Gary Trent Jr., 6’5” guard, 26 years old
What ended up turning into the best offseason move for the Bucks was their last move, signing Trent on July 17 to a veteran minimum deal. If you were to tell me that GTJ would wind up being the best of the new cast of characters after his first month of the season, I wouldn’t have believed it. There was a reason so early into his Bucks tenure (eight games into the season), that he was demoted to the bench in favor of second-year guard Andre Jackson Jr. Between the first five games of October and the entire month of November, Trent shot an abysmal 38.2% from the field and was averaging just 8.2 PPG.
Trent seemed to flip the switch in the final calendar month of 2024, as he shot a scorching 50% from the three-point line and 45.3% from the field in the 12 games he played in (Milwaukee went 7-5 in those contests). That December seemed to get Trent back on track for the rest of the season, as from January 2 against the Brooklyn Nets to April 11 against the Detroit Pistons, he held averages of 12.2 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.4 APG, shot 43.5% from the field and 41.8% from three (2.7 makes per game on 6.4 attempts). Despite remaining on the bench for only two games since his demotion in November, Trent was a key cog for the Bucks all season long and was part of the closing lineup for almost every game. After Lillard was diagnosed with blood clots and sat out the final 14 games of the regular season, Trent became part of a closing lineup that included Kevin Porter, Bobby Portis, Giannis, and AJ Green that helped the Bucks win seven straight games before they all sat out in game 82 against the Pistons.
Then came a rematch with the Indiana Pacers in the first round. After the Bucks fell behind 0-2 on Indiana’s home floor, Doc Rivers made the call to bench Taurean Prince—who had started most of the regular season—for Trent. Safe to say the move paid off big time in Game 3, with GTJ and Giannis combining for 74 points, thanks to the former Raptor shooting 11/16 from the field and 9/12 from the three-point line in the Bucks' 117-101 win. That was the end of the good vibes for the Bucks in the series, as Lillard tore his Achilles in Game 4 in a 129-103 loss to the Pacers, allowing Indiana to go up 3-1 in the series.
With their backs against the wall, Doc Rivers threw Bobby Portis and AJ Green into the starting lineup. Trent started well in the first quarter, dropping in six points as the Bucks went into the break up 30-13. But he went cold from there, combining for three points on 1/10 shooting between the second and third quarter, allowing Indy to come back and tie the game heading into the fourth quarter. He did come alive in the fourth and overtime, going for 24 points on 8/11 shooting from beyond the arc to give the Bucks a chance to win and force a Game 6. Yet, we all know what happened: the Pacers scored eight points in 34 seconds, with Trent dropping a pass between his legs that led to the game-winning layup from Haliburton over Giannis. It was such a crushing end to a season for Trent, who did everything he could in the fourth quarter and OT to get the Bucks to live another game, just for the ball to squirt between his legs, Bill Buckner style.
Role
If Trent does sign on the dotted line once again with the Bucks, he is the starting shooting guard day one. Whoever will be next to him in the backcourt is yet to be determined, with Ryan Rollins heading to restricted free agency and Porter left with a $2.5m player option he will reportedly decline. Outside of his starting role, GTJ will be relied upon to be a secondary scorer and ball handler in certain situations. He was also a decent pull-up mid-range shooter, hitting shots from ten feet to the three-point line at a 43.6% clip (20.5% of his shots came from this range—1.62 attempts per game). Trent would also take on the tougher defensive assignment for every team's guard (no more Taurean Prince guarding Tyrese Haliburton!), especially if they roll with KPJ as the starting point guard. There are other options the Bucks could look to at point guard (a reunion with Malcom Brogdon, perhaps?), but that’s for another time to discuss.
Potential Suitors
Almost any contender in the league who has access to their non-taxpayer mid-level exception will be circling the wagons on Trent. To clear a few teams out of the way, the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, and the Phoenix Suns are all currently projected to be over the second luxury tax apron and will not have access to any sort of mid-level exception unless they cut salary dramatically. With the taxpayer mid-level exception likely to be short of what Trent would be worth in free agency at $5.7m, we can also cut out the Denver Nuggets and New York Knicks. These teams would hard-cap themselves at the first apron if they go beyond that $5.7m figure for GTJ, but then wouldn’t have the room to fill out a 14-man roster.
The Philadelphia 76ers are a team that would make sense if you look at their three-point shooting stats, hitting threes at the fourth-worst rate in the league at 34.1%, just ahead of the Charlotte Hornets, Washington Wizards, and the Magic. Yet, they have the 25-year-old pending restricted free agent Quentin Grimes to re-sign, which could eat up a lot of the Sixers' space beneath the first apron. That would put them in the same situation as New York and Denver, thus cutting them from the Trent sweepstakes.
Another Bucks rival could be looking to scoop up the sharp-shooting Trent, and it wouldn't be the first time that they’ve signed a former Bucks guard coming off a one-year deal. The Detroit Pistons, even with Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. on the team, attempted the ninth fewest threes in the league (35.4), made the 11th fewest per game (12.8), and finished 16th in the league in percentage (36.2%). Detroit could simply swap out THJ for GTJ and have a shooting guard rotation of two former Bucks if they opt to bring Beasley back.
Trent could also head back to the Western Conference, but instead of heading back to Portland, he could go down to Texas and play with the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs had the association’s 11th-worst three-point percentage and have plenty of space beneath the first apron to give Trent the full MLE of $14.1 million. They could still do it even if they made a trade with the Suns for Kevin Durant, with a trade of, say, Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, and a first-round pick, which would only add about $3.8m to the Spurs' salary. A team with a starting lineup of De’Aron Fox, GTJ, Keldon Johnson, KD, and Victor Wembanyama (if healthy) could make some noise and potentially give a higher seed fits in the first round, if they’re not a higher seed themselves. Suffice it to say that there will be plenty of teams, obvious or dark horse in our eyes, that will be in pursuit of Trent this off-season.
Potential Contract
There is no doubt that Trent has earned a big raise over his veteran minimum, which he signed with the Bucks in the middle of last July. The Bucks have access to the full MLE, so if another team throws the full amount at GTJ, the Bucks could do so as well. If Portis opts out, and factoring in reported opt-out from Porter and opt-in from Pat Connaughton, Milwaukee’s eight players under contract for 2025–26 would put them $44.4m under the first apron. As mentioned above, they’d become hard-capped there if they gave Trent any more than $5.7m of the MLE.
Now, the question is whether Gary even gets the full MLE is up in the air. ESPN’s Kevin Pelton said that he should comfortably get in a happy medium between that minimum deal and the $18.6m he made in his final year with the Raptors. If I were a guessing man (and I am), I would imagine Trent gets somewhere in the realm of $8–10 million per year, which is a substantial raise, while allowing whatever team he goes to to use more of the full MLE on other players, especially if he stays with the Bucks.
That range seems to be pretty on point, as Jim Owczarski of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Matt Moore of HP Basketball on Twitter reported that Bucks ownership would like to sign Trent in that exact range:
In a perfect world where Trent remains with the Bucks long term, I would hope he gets a three-year, $27m deal, setting him up to be the long-term shooting guard the Bucks have been looking for since dealing Grayson Allen in the Damian Lillard trade.
What are your thoughts on Gary Trent Jr. coming back to the Bucks? Do you think he would take a discount to stay in Milwaukee and his old Portland teammate in Lillard, or look for greener pastures on a title contender? Let us know what you think in the comments below!