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Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell has developed such a reputation for keeping his offense on the field in fourth-down situations that even his wife has fed into the narrative.
Campbell, who famously drinks a lot of coffee, went viral last season when he saved one of his cups of coffee from spilling. That immediately got someone on social media to inquire: Is there anything that Dan Campbell can’t do?
To which Holly Campbell replied: “Yes. Punt.”
Since 2021, his first season with Detroit, Campbell’s Lions have gone for it on 151 fourth downs, the most in the NFL during that span. The Lions have had a better than 50% conversion rate in each season, topping out at 67% in 2024.
Campbell’s Lions went for it 33 times in 2024, fourth in the league behind the Cleveland Browns, Chicago Bears and New York Giants. Of course, those three teams were a combined 11-40 last year — they were going for it out of desperation. For the Lions, who went 15-2 in 2024, it was more about aggression.
Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell
Lions head coach Dan Campbell is bullish on going for it on fourth down ... but he’s not alone.
Junfu Han-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
“I do think it helps,” Campbell said at the end of last season. “And I do think our guys, for the most part, look at it as it’s just the next down as opposed to, ‘This is do or die, this is the last chance, if we don’t get this…’ That’s not how they look at it. They look at it as, ‘Well, this is the next down. That was third down, this was fourth down. What’s the difference?’”
Campbell’s players have come to expect it, and that’s a good thing.
“They’ve figured out a little bit of who I am over time now,” he said. “This didn’t just pop up, so I think they have a pretty good grasp of when we’re going to do it, when we’re not. Some games we go in saying that we’re going to be more aggressive than others. Sometimes it just flows that way.”
Although Campbell might be the poster child for going for it on fourth down, he hasn’t cornered the market. This has become a league-wide trend.
Coincidentally or not, the four years that Campbell has been with Detroit represent a four-year stretch with the most fourth-down attempts across the league. There were 766 fourth-down attempts last season — an average of 24 per team. More notably, the success rate was 56.8%, an all-time high.
Of course, one reason for the fourth-down trend is the success of the “Tush Push.” The Philadelphia Eagles, originators of the Tush Push, went for it on fourth down 27 times last season with a success rate of 70.4%.
Going for it becomes more appealing when the offense reaches what NFL Network analyst Steve Mariucci calls the “big red zone” — not inside the 20-yard line, but inside the 50, looking at a very long field-goal attempt.
“Let’s say it’s fourth-and-6,” says Mariucci, who had to make such decisions during his nine years as an NFL head coach with the San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions. “Our chances are like 12% to make the field goal, right? And if we punt it, what’s the best thing we can do? Yeah, we can land it on the 5-yard line. But you can also put it in there for a touchback. And then the net gain is what, a net punt of 20?
“So let’s just go for it, because we have a 50-50 chance of making this thing. And so the big red zone — from, say, the 30-, 35-yard line out to midfield — that’s an area where there’s a huge uptick in going for it on fourth down. Because if you don’t make it, it’s not drastic.”
Fourth down
Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Teams are also looking more and more at the analytics, trying to figure out what their chances of success are based on the exact down-and-distance. Mariucci says he can appreciate what the analytics say — but that it still comes down to a gut feeling.
“You’ve got to remember, they’re analytics based on past statistics and past success rates,” he says. “So what’s the conversion rate on fourth-and-5? You know, that’s one thing. But coaches have to take into account a lot of other things on the day of the game, in the moment. What’s the weather like? Who’s playing for you? Do you have a left guard that is injured? You know what I mean? To take a third-party stat, so-called analytics, and say, ‘I’m going to believe it because the success rate on this situation is 68% and gives us a better chance to win,’ that’s great. But coaches still need a gut feel to try to make a common-sense decision.”
Years before “analytics” was the key buzzword and before Campbell became the league’s fourth-down fanatic, another coach built a reputation for gambling on fourth down. During his nine years as head coach of the Carolina Panthers (2011-19), Ron Rivera became lovingly known as “Riverboat Ron” (although he initially preferred “Calculated Risk-Taker Ron”).
It was a nickname Rivera eventually came to embrace. And he proudly notes that it’s a philosophy he learned not from analytics but from a Hall of Fame coach.
“My answer to the fourth down (decisions) came from conversations with John Madden,” says Rivera, who also coached the Washington Commanders from 2020-23 and earlier this year became general manager of his alma mater, Cal.
Rivera was more conservative when he first became a head coach. If the Panthers were up by three and facing a fourth down in field-goal range, Rivera was more apt to settle for the field goal, knowing he could still lose if the opponent scored a touchdown.
“Madden said, ‘You know, the thing about kicking field goals versus going for it on fourth down is, you can close the game out,’” says Rivera. “If you don’t convert, and you’re up by three ... the opponent still has to get into field-goal range to score to tie it. And their mentality is not necessarily score a touchdown, it’s just be safe, be smart, get into field-goal position.”
Were Rivera’s bold moves based on analytics? “No, no, all based on your gut, your feel,” he says, recalling Madden’s advice. “He said to me, ‘Ron, you’ve played enough football, you’ve coached enough football to know better. To know when the right time is.’ He said there’s an instinct that you can’t … pick up off of numbers.”
Rivera does say that analytics provide a good excuse for going with your gut. Since the analytics are telling coaches to go for it more often, they can lean on the analytics if things don’t break the right way.
Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5)
Jayden Daniels and the Commanders had the best fourth-down success rate in 2024..
© Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images
“So if you don’t convert, well, it was in the numbers!” he says, laughing. “It was in the numbers. The numbers said you’re supposed to go.
“But see, what the numbers never tell you is what happens if you don’t succeed. You know what I’m saying? They said, well, it’s a 94% chance that it’s going to increase your opportunities to win. Okay. What is it if you don’t convert? You know what I’m saying? Are we giving all the information to the people that are doing it?”
By all accounts, teams are giving their coaches all the information they need. Most if not all teams have analytics departments fueling these decisions.
“We see coaches becoming much more aggressive on fourth down year over year, and it has no signs of slowing down,” former Atlanta Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff told the Washington Post last season. Dimitroff runs football analytics company SumerSports, which provides data-driven analysis to pro and college teams. “The increase in passing frequency, the increase in play-action usage, the fourth-down aggression and the choices to go for two-point conversions can all be tied back to the analytics movement.”
Another reason fourth-down attempts have been on the rise has to do with the new dynamic kickoff rule that was imposed last season — and a new tweak to that rule for 2025 likely will put even more emphasis on this trend. The average starting position after a kickoff used to be around the 25-yard line. Last season, with the dynamic kickoff, it was around the 30. Newly implemented for 2025, a touchback on kickoffs will be placed at the 35-yard line. In other words, teams will be starting their drives maybe two first downs shy of field-goal range.
So never mind about the “big red zone” — let’s say you’re inside the opponent’s 10-yard line. Let’s say it’s fourth-and-goal from the 4-yard line. Not as easy as a QB sneak, but …
“If I kick a field goal, okay,” says Fox Sports analyst Greg Olsen. “Then I kick off, they might start at the 35, or more. It’s not as favorable to me. Even if I fail on fourth down, they are on the … 4-yard line. The odds actually tell me I’m more likely to score next even though I don’t possess the ball.”
Clearly, it makes more sense for a team with a strong offense to go for it than it does for a team with a poor offense. Not surprisingly, the most successful fourth-down teams last season were predominantly playoff teams. The Washington Commanders had the best success rate at 87% (converting 20-of-23 attempts), followed by the Buffalo Bills (72.7%), Kansas City Chiefs (70.6%), Philadelphia Eagles (70.4%) and Denver Broncos (68.2%). In all, 10 of the top 11 teams in fourth-down success rate were playoff teams. Of the eight teams that converted less than 50% of their fourth-down attempts, six had losing records.
Of course, one of the greatest coaches in NFL history is credited with perhaps the most widely criticized fourth-down decision ever made. It was a classic Sunday night game in 2009 between Tom Brady’s New England Patriots and Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts. The Patriots, clinging to a six-point lead with just over two minutes left to play, faced fourth-and-2 from their own 28-yard line. Bill Belichick opted to go for it.
Brady’s fourth-down pass was only good for one yard, and the Colts took over at the 29. Four plays later, Manning found Reggie Wayne for the winning score. “I thought it was our best chance to win,” Belichick said the next day. “I thought we needed to make that one play and then we could basically run out the clock. We weren’t able to make it.”
Belichick’s defense might have taken that decision personally, but not everyone disagreed with the move. Manning had been unstoppable throughout the fourth quarter of that game, so the situation called for extreme measures.
Campbell’s fourth-down decisions are usually meant to put the opposition on its heels. His reputation is actually something Detroit’s opponents need to prepare for.
“I do think there is some of that, where teams know coming in that they may need to be more aggressive because of the fact that we’re going to be,” Campbell says. “I also know that there are plenty of coaches that are telling their guys, ‘Look, he’s going to mess this up. That head coach over there is going to make a decision that’s going to cost their team, and we’ll just stay true to what we do.’ And you can’t argue with that either. There’s no right or wrong to it, in my opinion, I just know my right.”
Yet another reason for the uptick in fourth-down attempts is, quite simply, the acceptance of the idea.
“The incredulousness with which some fourth-down go-for-it decisions are received by announcers, a lot of that has gone away,” says Ben Baldwin, creator of the “Fourth Down Decision Bot,” a program that analyzes all fourth-down attempts. “For the most part, Troy Aikman and Cris Collinsworth and Greg Olsen, all of those guys understand what teams are doing in going for it. You’re not as likely to hear criticism for going for it on fourth down as you would 10 years ago.”
Regardless of the reason, more fourth-down attempts are good for football. Perhaps the only people who don’t want to see it are punters. Lions punter Jack Fox had a career-low 45 punts last season.
See — Campbell can punt. He just doesn’t like to.
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