MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has Oklahoma City within one win of the franchise's first title since 1979, when it played in Seattle.
MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has Oklahoma City within one win of the franchise's first title since 1979, when it played in Seattle.Nate Billings/Associated Press
What we’ve learned in watching the NBA Finals the past two weeks is that the 68-win Thunder and 50-win Pacers are closer in talent than was projected.
The series shifts to Indianapolis for a pivotal Game 6 with the Pacers down 3-2 — quite similar to the 2022 Celtics, who blew a golden opportunity to seize a 3-1 lead by melting down in the final minutes of Game 4.
The Pacers were outdueled by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the final minutes as the Thunder evened the series. Then, Indiana fell behind most of Game 5 as the Thunder pulled away in the final minutes to draw to within one win of their first championship since relocating from Seattle in 2008.
What’s frustrating about this series for Celtics fans is that Boston likely would have provided a better series than any other team in the Eastern Conference if it had managed to get past New York.
Obviously, the Celtics would have needed a healthy Jayson Tatum. But as constructed, they were the best matchup against the Thunder, who defensively allow opponents to shoot 3-pointers but clog up the paint to prevent dribble penetration.
Unfortunately for the Pacers, they’ve been unable to capitalize on that defensive strategy, shooting 36.6 percent from the 3-point line but without the usual performance of their primary shooters. The trio of Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton, and Myles Turner are 22 for 76 from the 3-point line in the series, with Haliburton going a combined 1 for 11 in Games 4 and 5.
Indiana has also wasted opportunities with numerous turnovers. It has committed 17.8 per game in this series and ruined any chance of a Game 5 rally with a plethora of late-game mistakes. This is a series the Pacers could have easily been leading, but now they’re relegated to having to win the final two games starting with Thursday’s Game 6 at home.
“We’ve got to be better,” Haliburton said after Game 5. “... We’ve just got to do a better job of getting spaced, getting downhill, I think that’s the most important thing, keeping pace in the game. ... 22 turnovers against a team like this is a recipe for disaster. I think that should be the main area that we focus on going into the next game. Obviously, we can be better on many, many points on the court. But I think taking care of the ball is the biggest thing.”
Tyrese Haliburton (left) drives past OKC's Luguentz Dort during Game 5. Haliburton is dealing with a calf issue and is questionable for Game 6.
Tyrese Haliburton (left) drives past OKC's Luguentz Dort during Game 5. Haliburton is dealing with a calf issue and is questionable for Game 6.Kyle Phillips/Associated Press
Haliburton is dealing with a calf strain and is listed as questionable for Game 6, although he’s likely to play. Even prior to the injury, Haliburton has not played his best. The Pacers have been plagued by slow starts and Haliburton has been the main culprit, playing too passively in the first half and then picking the absolute last moment to provide offensive spark.
He did not record a field goal in Game 5, again fueling the debate as to whether he is truly a superstar or just a quality player on a deep, talented team. Sometimes series can change dramatically in the matter of minutes, and this one shifted with the Pacers ahead 103-99 with 3:20 left after a Haliburton layup in Game 4.
Indiana did not score another field goal and the brilliant and methodical Gilgeous-Alexander scored 11 of the Thunder’s final 12 points on Friday. Jalen Williams then followed with 40 points in Game 5 and Oklahoma City went from potentially blowing this series to being in control.
The Pacers’ faults are beginning to show, which is why there’s serious concern as to whether this team can continue its rise in the Eastern Conference or whether it just capitalized on the Celtics meltdown against the Knicks. The Magic apparently feel there’s a major opportunity with the Celtics slipping, the Knicks still lacking a coach and appearing in upheaval and the Pacers not quite at the elite level.
The Magic traded four first-round picks for sharpshooter Desmond Bane with the express purpose of winning the Eastern Conference. And it will be revealed in the next few weeks what plans the Cavaliers, Celtics, Knicks, Pacers, and even the Pistons have.
For now, there’s still hope for the Pacers to pull out their series but they’ll need two of their best games of the season. This has been a more competitive and compelling series than expected, despite the lack of star power besides Gilgeous-Alexander. Both teams are deep and well-coached.
But one can’t help but think if the Celtics hadn’t blown 20-point leads in the first two games of the Knicks series and if Tatum hadn’t dived for that loose ball and torn his Achilles’. Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens did build this team to compete for multiple championships and a fully healthy squad against the Thunder would have been an enthralling showdown.
But those are delusions, and the reality is the Pacers will have to play with more precision and prowess if they are to pull off the upset. But they may have capped out after their collapse in Game 4.
Gary Washburn is a Globe columnist. He can be reached at gary.washburn@globe.com. Follow him @GwashburnGlobe.