Newcastle United will need to engage in transfer talks with Brighton if they are to sign Joao Pedro during this summer’s transfer window.
Pedro is a leading target for Newcastle United. In fact, Geordie Boot Boys understand that Brighton are prepared to sell Pedro to Newcastle, at the right price.
Indeed, Pedro is open to joining Newcastle this summer, although the Seagulls will be negotiating from a position of relative strength.
While Pedro wants to leave Brighton, the club are under no immediate pressure to sell. The 23-year-old still has three years to run on his contract, and the south coast club notoriously drive a hard bargain.
Newcastle’s transfer budget is expected to be around £150million this summer. They do not have a bottomless pit of money, so surely cannot be drawn into a bidding war.
With that in mind, Geordie Boot Boys spoke to football finance expert Adam Williams.
Joao Pedro celebrates after scoring for Brighton against Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup.
Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images
How signing Joao Pedro would impact Newcastle United’s PSR position
Williams highlighted the fact that Brighton are in such a strong position with the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) that they simply won’t sell if Newcastle are not ready to put an attractive enough offer together.
Williams also pointed to the fact while Newcastle’s PSR position is healthy right now, owners PIF may have to spend big one summer before adopting a more restrained approach the following year in order to balance the books.
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“As things stand, Brighton and Newcastle are in different places when it comes to PSR,” he said.
“In the short term, Newcastle are absolutely fine. They aren’t at any risk of breaching Premier League PSR for the three-year period up until the end of June. After that, we move into the next PSR window.
“Newcastle will have even greater breathing space then because the £73m loss they made in 2022-23 is no longer part of the calculation. By all accounts, they are going to have a big summer. Even with Champions League cash in 2025-26, I’d expect that to lead to a pretty significant loss all the same.
Brighton forward Joao Pedro lines up ahead of a Premier League game against Fulham.
Photo by Shaun Brooks – CameraSport via Getty Images
“Remember, you get more money from UEFA, but your wage bill also increases massively with Champions League participation, with bonuses to player and other running costs.
“Newcastle have said they will always spend to the limit of PSR and the strategy so far under PIF suggests that they’re going to do this in cycles, so one massive summer might be followed by a season of restraint in the transfer market.
“That’s where they are different from Brighton. Even though they spent big last summer, they are no way near the limit with PSR either. That’s because their player trading has been exceptional in the previous few seasons, as we all know.
“Tony Bloom has been very generous with his external funding of Brighton historically, but they are at a place now where they aren’t relying on that whatsoever. Unlike Newcastle, they aren’t going to spend the maximum allowed under PSR.
“So, they are negotiating with Newcastle from a position of strength. They will sell if they get the right offer but if they don’t, they won’t.
“Newcastle have made it clear they won’t be held to ransom just because their owners are the richest in the game, so I think Brighton will be a professional but stubborn negotiating partner.”
Alexander Isak should demand Newcastle United sign Joao Pedro
Pedro and Alexander Isak could form a brilliant partnership at Newcastle, should the Brazilian arrive.
While the Brighton star has often played as a central striker, he’s more than capable of operating in a deeper attacking position.
Pedro created 11 big chances in the Premier League last season, ironically finishing level with Isak on that metric. At Newcastle, only Bruno Guimaraes (12) and Jacob Murphy (16) provided more.
That kind of creativity and versatility would be a key addition to the Newcastle United squad, particularly ahead of a Champions League campaign when there will be more games on the agenda.
A striker as prolific as Isak would surely love that.