Well, I might have cost the Pacers the series. Jinxes are powerful things, and I should not have tempted fate. After Game Four, [I commented](https://www.poundingtherock.com/2025/6/16/24450270/thoughts-from-the-nba-finals-after-four-games) on how the Finals were blessed with two healthy teams:
> The latter part of the regular season and the early playoffs were dominated by serious injuries to top players. Kyrie Irving for the Mavs, Dame Lillard with the Bucks, Steph Curry on the Warriors and most devastating, Jason Tatum on the defending champion Celtics. **But these Finals have not yet been cursed by the injury bug as both teams’ rotation players are all healthy**.
The Pacers’ best player, Tyrese Haliburton, then hurt himself at the start of Game Five. While he tried to return, he was clearly compromised, not making a single basket in the game. He did take my advice and got to the free throw line four times (after three in total over the first four games), but those four made free throws were the only points he scored. Then, Tuesday’s headline announced that Haliburton would be getting an MRI on his right calf before Game Six. While the MRI is an amazing piece of technology, you don’t want your best player to need that amazing technology in the middle of the NBA Finals.
Even if the Pacers decide Haliburton can play, he will not be at full strength and in danger of a more serious injury. Things have certainly changed since the Pacers led by ten near the end of the third quarter in Game Four.
My previous post also talked about how the Thunder’s edge in offensive rebounds and turnovers in Game Four led to seven extra possessions for OKC:
> In Game Four, OKC had 12 offensive rebounds on its 41 missed shots — a normal-ish 29%. But the Pacers had only 7 offensive boards on 46 missed shots: an atrocious 15%. Put another way, that gave OKC five extra possessions. OKC also had two fewer turnovers, for a total of seven extra possessions — a big difference in a close game.
Note that those seven extra possessions led to a seven point Thunder win.
This was also a precursor to what happened in Game Five. While offensive rebounding was almost identical (18 for Indiana, 19 for OKC), the Pacers badly lost the turnover battle. They had 22, while OKC only had 12, a difference of 10. Add the one extra offensive rebound, and the Thunder had 11 extra possessions. Each possession is generally worth about a point — and the final score was 120-109, an 11 point spread. Funny how math works sometimes.
Other than turnovers, the other important numbers were fairly close. The Pacers shot a bit better overall (45% to 43%), although the Thunder neutralized that advantage by shooting a better from three (44% to 37%). Free throws were basically a wash — the Pacers shot 80% on 30 attempts, the Thunder shot 81% on 32 attempts. So once again, the key words in this paragraph were the first three: “other than turnovers”. Which is why coaches hate turnovers, whenever they happen. Many of the Pacers’ turnovers happened in the first quarter, leading to a ten point spread at the end of that quarter — virtually the same spread as the end of the game.
This comment from my Game Four thoughts led to a discussion with my buddy and basketball savant Ryan:
> SGA made some big shots (including the go-ahead shot on what looked like both a push-off and a travel).
Our discussion focused on the push-off part of my comment. We agreed that an offensive player’s push-off creates an unfair advantage which warps the game. Allowing the push-off means that a defensive player who is doing everything right is nonetheless dislodged from his _legal guarding position,_ creating the separation necessary to get the shot off_._ We all know a foul would be called if the defender knocked the offensive player back three feet. Ryan also pointed out that if the defender attempts to close the gap by moving forward, back into the _legal guarding position_ he was just shoved out of, the shooter can create contact by jumping forward into the same space his push-off created. Again, we all know who gets the foul — even though the offensive player started the sequence with the illegal push-off. I used to ask referees “What did you want my guy to do differently?” In all my years of coaching, I never received a satisfactory answer.
Watching the game, it felt like the Thunder dominated almost throughout because they led the entire way, much of the time by that initial ten-point lead. However, the Thunder “won” the last three quarters by only one point, 88-87. And that was while SGA and Jalen Williams were combining for 71 points, with Haliburton either in the locker room getting treatment, on the bench, or on the court but not making a single shot.
Does this mean the Pacers may be able to compete with OKC without an effective Haliburton (or no Haliburton at all)? The Pacers will be at home with an arena filled with screaming Hoosiers, trying to keep their season alive. OKC might not have the same sense of urgency, knowing that even if they lose, they will they have home court for Game Seven. And everyone likes a Game Seven. As I said after Game Four:
> **I really hope this goes to seven games.** Unless the Pacers steal Game Five in OKC tonight. If that happens, I hope the Finals end in six, in front of the Pacers’ home crowd. Hoosiers.
Now I really really hope this goes to seven games. Go Pacers.