Self-styled transfer gurus have been falling over themselves on social media to talk up Liverpool’s interest in [Newcastle United](http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/sport/football/newcastle)’s star striker. Presenters on talkSPORT have been excitedly debating whether the Magpies would see a £120m transfer as a good deal. Isak’s representatives are rumoured to be hoping to exploit the uncertainty within Newcastle’s executive structure, with sporting director and chief executive both leaving, to get their client the best possible deal, either at or away from St James’ Park.
It's all very predictable, but it’s also not without substance given that Isak would be the most attractive attacking option anywhere in Europe if he was to be available for sale. If. It might only contain two letters, but it’s a very big word. And it will ultimately define everything else that happens at Newcastle this summer.
Let’s get one thing clear from the outset – on all available evidence, either from statements that have been made on the record or from off-the-record briefings from senior sources, Newcastle’s ownership group have no intention of cashing in on Isak this summer. Quite the opposite in fact – they want to build the rest of their team around the Swede.
They haven’t been seriously tested yet though, and it increasingly looks as though that will happen, whether from Liverpool, whose summer spending will not end with their club-record move for Florian Wirtz, or via Arsenal, whose pursuit of Benjamin Sesko appears to be running into trouble. What would Newcastle do if someone was to bid £120m? What about £150m?
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Then there’s the thorny issues of contract negotiations. The Newcastle hierarchy accept that Isak would be able to increase his salary significantly elsewhere. There is a desire to conduct talks over a new deal – the 25-year-old’s current contract runs to 2028 – but while Newcastle are willing to raise their wage ceiling to boost Isak’s earnings, they are not in a position where PSR constraints would allow them to completely demolish their current wage structure. What would happen if Isak and his representatives were to walk away from negotiations citing the salary that would be on offer at Anfield?
There’s a simple answer to that – Newcastle would have to stand firm. Retaining Isak must be a complete non-negotiable this summer for two key reasons.
First, because it would be impossible to replace him. As the clamour over Isak for most of the last two seasons has proved, world-class centre-forwards don’t exactly grow on trees. If you’ve got one, you hold onto him.
Alexander Isak celebrates after scoring for Newcastle _(Image: Bradley Collyer/PA)_
Whatever Newcastle were to bank for Isak, they’d have to spend the vast majority on securing a replacement. Assuming Callum Wilson doesn’t re-sign on reduced terms, the Magpies are already short of one striker. No matter how good the preparation or planning, they cannot afford to get themselves into a position where they are trying to recruit two. Will Osula is showing promise at the European Under-21 Championships, but Eddie Howe clearly didn’t think he was ready for regular Premier League football last season. Without Isak, Newcastle would be devoid of attacking threat.
Just as importantly, within the very top echelons of the game, they’d also be back to being regarded as a selling club rather than a buying one, a stepping stone rather than a fully-fledged member of the European elite. When you’re trying to disrupt the established order like Newcastle are, that matters.
Newcastle’s development under the PIF has always been somewhat misunderstood, largely because of the ‘richest club in the world’ tag that was placed around their neck, but the next two or three years will nevertheless go a long way to determining the club’s long-term direction of travel. Back in the Champions League, and with their PSR situation improving, are they ready to take the next step in terms of ambition, recruitment and status?
Howe has described this summer’s transfer window as “pivotal”. He was referring to the need to add quality and depth to a squad that must make a better fist of coping with both the rigours of the Champions League and the demands of the domestic schedule next season. How would selling your best player fit into that? If Isak was to leave, a huge part of Newcastle’s vision would disappear with him. Why would Sandro Tonali stay if Inter Milan came calling? Why would any of the Magpies’ own transfer targets agree to move to Tyneside if they felt the club they were being asked to join lacked ambition?
So far, all the signs are still positive. Newcastle’s desire to hold on to Isak appears to remain resolute. It must remain that way. The talk and speculation will continue. But as long as Isak is wearing a black-and-white shirt next season, it will be irrelevant.