In this offseason series, Athlon's Doug Farrar asks the One Big Question for every NFL team that will ultimately be answered when everyone hits the field in September. In the case of the Los Angeles Chargers, it's all about whether head coach Jim Harbaugh can bring the most and the best out of Justin Herbert in Year Two of their partnership. It's past time for Herbert's athletic potential to bloom in full.
Through the first five seasons of Justin Herbert's NFL career, we've all been waiting for Herbert's talent and potential to flourish from an efficiency perspective based on his traits, which are as prominent as you'll see from any NFL quarterback these days.
Since the Chargers selected the 6-foot-6, 236-pound Herbert with the sixth overall pick out of Oregon in the 2020 draft, Herbert has done as much as he has been able to when it comes to expanding his ceiling. Since the 2020 season, only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen has more passing attempts than Herbert's 3,001. Only Mahomes, Allen, and Jared Goff have more completions than Herbert's 1,984. Only Mahomes, Allen, and Goff have more passing yards than Herbert's 21,608.
Herbert ranks sixth in touchdown passes over that time with 136, and his interception rate of 1.6% is the lowest among quarterbacks who played in all five seasons from 2020-2024.
So, the counting stats are all great. Where things get complicated is in the efficiency metrics. Herbert ranks 16th in passer rating (95.8), 16th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (6.61), and he's never ranked higher than sixth in DVOA, which he did in 2021. For the most part, Herbert has been a very good, but not truly transcendent quarterback.
Not that it's all on him. Herbert has had four different offensive coordinators in his five-year tenure (Shane Steichen, Joe Lombardi, Kellen Moore, Greg Roman), and until Jim Harbaugh became the Chargers' head coach before the 2024 season, Herbert had never had a head coach with a quarterback's background.
Of course, Harbaugh qualifies in that regard. He played 14 years in the NFL at that position, and his history of developing quarterbacks from Andrew Luck at Stanford, to Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco, to J.J. McCarthy at Michigan, is above reproach. I spoke with Harbaugh during Super Bowl week in Las Vegas in February, 2024, and he was already aware of the "awesome responsibility" of coaching someone with Herbert's abilities.
Given that Herbert may be the most physically gifted quarterback ever under Harbaugh's wing, one expected this partnership to blossom right away.
It did, to a point. With rookie Ladd McConkey as his one trustworthy receiver in the 2024 regular season, Herbert completed 332 of 504 passes for 3,870 yards, 23 touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 101.7. All three of Herbert's regular-season interceptions came when he was under pressure, so with a clean pocket, he was as deadly as any quarterback in the league.
Just when Herbert had seemed to have taken that next step, it all fell apart in the Chargers' 32-12 wild-card playoff loss to the Houston Texans. Herbert was pressured on 19 of his 37 dropbacks, and overall, he completed 14 of 32 passes for 242 yards, one touchdown, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 40.9. It was the worst game of Herbert's career, especially for a player who had never thrown more than two interceptions in an NFL game before.
Herbert was pressured, he was pressing, his receivers couldn't hold onto the ball when they needed to, and the Chargers' passing game — which ranked eighth in DVOA in the regular season — fell off a cliff.
"He’s got to be able to finish a throwing motion," Harbaugh said postgame, when asked about Herbert's interceptions. "Quarterback’s got to be able to do that, and we didn’t put him in the position to do that enough. The edge pressure. Those are really the best we’ve seen. The pressure on the edge, the pass rush was outstanding.”
Harbaugh blamed the protection; Herbert put the responsibility on himself.
“It is tough, I let the team down," he said. "You can’t turn over the ball like that and expect to win. I put the team in a tough position with four turnovers. The defense hung tough; they got us some turnovers. They gave us opportunities, but I just have to be better.”
With that as the final memory of the 2024 Chargers, how can things be different and better in 2025?
Fortunately, the receiver corps has been augmented — both in free agency with the return of Mike Williams, who played for the Chargers from 2017-2023, and in the draft with Ole Miss's Tre Harris in the second round, and Auburn's KeAndre Lambert-Smith in the fifth. Williams, Harris, and Lambert-Smith are all bigger-bodied receivers with the capability to make explosive plays, and their additions should give McConkey even more space to bedevil opposing defenses as a slot and motion weapon.
In addition, with free agent Tyler Conklin and fifth-round pick Oronde Gadsden II from Syracuse, the tight end room got its own offseason boost.
"I think it's always great to have playmakers like that, guys that are able to stretch the field," Herbert said on June 11 of the new guys. "They picked it up really quickly. It's always tough learning a new offense and going through that process, but those guys have picked it up.
"You head out to the practice field and you understand they know what they're doing. Yeah, we're going to make mistakes here or there, but they've done such a great job of just applying what they learned in the film room and taking it to the practice field. Obviously, there are things we can continue to clean up through OTAs, but to have guys like that, it definitely opens up our offense,"
Herbert is not holding on to that disaster against the Texans; it's all about moving forward.
"Just like every other loss," Herbert said this month. "You take a look on what you did wrong, what you did right and try to improve. If I spend any more time on worrying or focusing on a loss like that, I think I'm doing a disservice on my teammates. Obviously, it didn't go the way we wanted to, like I said at the end of the year, but you've got to move on and take a look at what you did wrong. Be honest with yourself, be critical, but you can't let it take up too much of your time."
The Chargers have the defense in place for a deeper playoff run; defensive coordinator Jesse Minter is one of the NFL's rising stars, and his squad ranked ninth in DVOA last season with a bullet. The offensive line has two franchise tackles in Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, and everyone's banking on the addition of guard Mekhi Becton following Becton's career rebirth with the Philadelphia Eagles last season. Running back Omarion Hampton, taken with the 22nd overall pick out of North Carolina, has the skills to be that every-down back every NFL team would love to have.
You can bet that between them, Harbaugh and Greg Roman have all kinds of ideas on how to make Herbert even better.
"This guy is a sniper," Roman recently said of his quarterback. "I think he should be in the MVP discussion every year, and I know he was last year. He's that type of player, an MVP type of player. He doesn't care about all that, he just wants to go out and win.
"But as far as his mind, it's highly impressive. His ability to take in a ton of information and disseminate it quickly. A-plus. His ability to throw the ball? A-plus. Toughness? A-plus. This guy is a special person, special player and we're looking forward to really trying to push the envelope this year.".
Pushing the envelope would be great, if only to know that we're finally seeing the Justin Herbert we've all been promised. That Justin Herbert could make the Chargers a Super Bowl contender with everything around him, so now's the time.