When asked to give an over/under on 11 wins for the Patriots this year, Rob Ninkovich took the under, suggesting a more modest target.
“I think they’re a 9, 10 win team,” Ninkovich said.
The question was raised by Nikovich’s former New England teammate Julian Edelman, on Thursday’s episode of Dudes on Dudes with Gronk and Jules, a podcast he hosts with Rob Gronkowski.
After his under prediction on 11 wins, Ninkovich got some pushback from Gronkoswki.
“Why under, I know you’re a big Patriots fan,” Gronkowski said. “New coach, new players, free agency hit, hit in the draft. Got the tackle, got wide receivers, the defense is stacked, why under 11?”
For Ninkovich, his prediction was not necessarily an indictment on the changes the organization has made, he just knows that massive of a jump is rare in the NFL.
“Let’s just be realistic, you think they’re going to have 12 wins,” Ninkovich asked. “They’re going to be a 12-win team after being a 4-win team? So I took the under.”
While Ninkovich said he does expect the New England to at least double its win total from last season, he is still skeptical on the reliance of free agent additions from this offseason. In a follow up, he asked the hosts, "do you think that you can win instantly with overpaying in free agency?"
Ninkovich was referring to players like Milton Williams, Harold Landry, and Stefon Diggs.
When Williams signed with the Patriots at the very beginning of free agency, the 25-year-old became the highest paid player in franchise history, inking a 4-year, $104 million contract. Landry’s deal was for three years and $43.5 million, with the potential to reach $48 million.
Joining New England later in the free agency process, Diggs made another splash, signing for three years and $69 million.
Ninkovich does not deny the talent of any of the signings, but he knows that this method of team building is not always the most successful.
“They just spent $355 million, that’s a lot,” Ninkovich said.
Gronkowski agreed with his former teammate, citing the 2012 Philadelphia Eagles as a team that tried to make a splash in free agency but faltered when the regular season came around. That Eagles team finished 4-12 and fired head coach Andy Reid in December.
“That’s a great point, let’s talk about the dream team, Philadelphia Eagles, remember 2013,” Gronkowski said. “Coach Belichick always put them up on the board, there was so much talk about them. They were talking ‘Oh we’re the greatest team, we have so many free agents come in.’ And they went what, 5-11 that year?
“It doesn’t mean you’re going to gel as a team when you bring in that many free agents. But, they are veterans free agents and Vrabel is a guys that you kind of feel like can gel them together."
Ninkovich agreed with Gronkowski about the benefit Mike Vrabel brings as the team’s new head coach. The former linebacker and defensive end said he’s taken notice of the way Vrabel is branding the team and its culture.
“He’s the glue guy,” Ninkovich said of Vrabel. “What is it, ‘Forged in Foxboro’ now, ‘We’re building this thing up.’ Like our new facility, ‘We’re gonna build it from the ground up with steel and iron.’ It’s great, it’s great marketing.”