When the it comes time for the Utah Jazz to make their first selection of the 2025 NBA Draft — the No. 5 overall pick — one of these three players will likely be available: Tre Johnson (Texas), Ace Bailey (Rutgers) or VJ Edgecombe (Baylor).
So today we continue with the second of a three-part series, diving into what these players would offer as a prospect, based on conversations with scouts, executives, coaches and my own evaluation.
Airious ‘Ace’ Bailey — wing — 6′7.5″ (without shoes) — 7′0.5 wingspan
Bailey has been a divisive figure in the predraft conversation, and even more so in recent days. There are some questions about where he is as far as development and maturity are concerned, and there are some worries about the way that he plays and his efficiency.
But, much of the concern recently comes from a refusal to take part in predraft workouts. I’ll say two things about this.
First, it is not Ace Bailey who is refusing workouts. It is his agent who is declining meetings with teams.
I wouldn’t want to punish Bailey or doubt his abilities based on management that is potentially making bad decisions, and we see guys get selected every single year by teams that did not get a workout with that player.
Second, the news that Bailey’s camp is declining workouts seemed to come out in a quick wave over the last week. That makes me wonder who is leaking the information and what their motivation is for talking to reporters.
It could be that this information came out because teams are truly confounded, but it could also be that it originally came from a team that is hoping to draft Bailey and wanted to muddy the water so other teams will look elsewhere.
I don’t know what the agenda is of Bailey’s agent and I don’t know what the origins are for all of this predraft news. Even without that knowledge, I think Bailey will be drafted based on his talent and potential and not based on this other noise.
Strengths
Bailey is a three-level scorer who has beautiful shooting mechanics and really advanced footwork, especially considering he won’t turn 19 until August.
He’s a scorer at heart and in practice. He’s smooth. and when he’s on, he looks like he could be an All-Star NBA wing capable of anything.
In his lone season at Rutgers, Bailey averaged 17.6 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, shooting 46% overall and 34.6% from 3-point range on 4.5 attempts per contest.
He measured in at the NBA Draft Combine smaller than he was listed while at Rutgers, but he still has great length and plays with all of his body and it feels like he plays taller than he is.
Additionally, Bailey’s shooting mechanics and form don’t seem to change much whether he’s in a catch-and-shoot situation versus a step-back, off the dribble, in the mid-range or anything else.
That kind of consistency in form is unique for his age.
He also a high release and has great touch with floaters, push shots and at the rim. When he makes quick decisions, he is crisp as a passer and creating for himself.
Off the ball, he is a really smart cutter and understands angles and curl positions and has explosive athleticism.
Defensively, he is versatile and seems like he would fare very well in a system that allows for a lot of switching. He can be a good help defender and is quick about getting into defensive spots in transition.
Weaknesses
There are a lot of highlight defensive plays of Bailey flying in for a chasedown block or weak side block off help, but sometimes it seems Bailey is hunting those plays to the detriment of his own defensive assignment, which leaves him in no-mans land when he isn’t the defender directly involved with a play.
In order to be effective at the next level, Bailey, along with most prospects coming from the college ranks, will need more strength in order to make his size matter in the NBA.
He could end up being really effective, punishing mismatches or taking guys to the rim, but he’ll need a lot more strength to do that.
Offensively, Bailey’s shot selection is going to need to be cleaned up dramatically. He loves turnarounds and stepbacks in the midrange. That skillset does project to be useful for someone in the playoffs, but he’ll have to be a lot more selective and make better decisions throughout an 82-game NBA regular season.
In addition to shot selection, Bailey’s decision-making in general needs to improve. He can get tunnel vision when he isn’t making a quick decision with the ball, and because his handle is not quite where it needs to be, that tunnel vision often leads to off-balance or just plain bad shots.
Bailey loves to have the ball in his hands, but he’ll need to learn to be content with his off-ball production. He won’t be allowed to iso with inefficiency in the NBA the way he was allowed to previously.
Scouts and executives have pointed to the fact that Bailey is not as developed or experienced as many of the other players in the top tier of the 2025 draft, which makes him a bit of an immature basketball player.
That can be looked at in a couple of ways though. He could be a project player who could potentially not find his way, but because he hasn’t been pulled in a million directions by numerous coaches over the last few years, he could be easily molded with the guidance of an NBA team.
Overall profile
Bailey has a ton of upside and is also risky, which is exactly why he’s so divisive but still considered to be a top 10 pick. He could really turn into a prolific, All-Star caliber player, but it could take a lot of work, time and patience to get him to that level.
All of the predraft choas caused by his agent seems to be hurting Bailey more than it is helping him, but that being said, if Bailey is available at No. 5, the Jazz would have a huge decision to make on a player who is potentially a high-risk, high-reward swing.