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‘Doesn’t want’ - Finance expert makes big Premier League claim about Sunderland and Leeds United

Kieran Maguire says Sunderland face an uphill battle due to financial rules and unforgiving tactics

Speaking to talkSPORT, Maguire argued that the current Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) and tactical naivety shown by some promoted teams make it incredibly difficult for clubs like Sunderland, Leeds United, and Burnley to compete – unless they adopt a pragmatic approach both on and off the pitch.

Asked whether those three clubs have a realistic chance of survival next season, Maguire was clear in his assessment: "Yes, they do. I think what they've got to do is to work out a strategy, is how they're going to play the football.

“I think we saw last season the, for want of a better phrase, the tippy-tappy build-from-the-back routine that some clubs who'd just been promoted tried to adopt. You get found out too easily at the Premier League because it's brutal in terms of punishing mistakes. So, I think if you go to grind out results, it won't be pretty, but some sensible spends in terms of players, utilising the loan market as well."

Maguire’s warning comes as Sunderland prepare for life in the top flight under Régis Le Bris, with Kristjaan Speakman leading the club’s summer recruitment plans. The Black Cats have been linked with experienced names like Joe Gomez, as well as emerging talents such as Lennon Miller and Habib Diarra – but face tough decisions on how to spend within PSR limits.

“Premier League doesn’t want them to survive”

The conversation turned more pointed when Darren Bent asked how newly promoted clubs are expected to survive when even teams like Spurs, who finished just above the bottom three last season, have vastly superior resources. “How is any newly promoted side, with these financial restraints, expected to survive?” Bent asked.

Maguire didn’t hold back in his response. “Well, you could argue the Premier League doesn't want them to survive. You know, the way that the rules are presently written, it does gang up against those sides that have just been promoted. And also, if you are an established Premier League team, why would you change the rules to make it easier to allow clubs to compete?”

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Citing Nottingham Forest, who took a high-risk approach to squad building and were hit with a points deduction, Maguire suggested that breaking the rules – and absorbing the consequences – may ironically be the only way some clubs stay up, though he stopped short of recommending that course of action to Sunderland, Burnley and Leeds United.

“We saw in the case of Nottingham Forest, they ended up with a point deduction because they said to a certain extent, stuff these rules,” Maguire added. “We are going to sign players and we're going to take on the risk that we'll earn ourselves enough points that even if we get a modest deduction, we'll avoid relegation. And that will allow us to go again and become established in the Premier League. And that has worked. But it is a huge gamble.”

“The rules don't work for the clubs because remember that they're Championship clubs. So why would Premier League clubs introduce a set of rules which would make it easier for Championship clubs to come up and ultimately take the place of an existing Premier League club?”

The view from the other side

While Maguire’s comments have sparked debate over fairness, there is also a counterargument that the Premier League is actively working to strike a balance between competition and sustainability. Parachute payments remain a key part of that effort – providing clubs with financial cushioning after relegation to help them remain competitive and protect against the financial shock of dropping out of the top flight. Critics of Maguire’s view suggest that these payments, along with broadcasting revenue and commercial opportunities, offer newly promoted clubs like Sunderland a solid platform – if used wisely.

In addition, the Premier League is currently reviewing its financial governance system, with potential reforms on the horizon. While the existing Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) are set to remain in place for the 2025–26 season, alternative models such as the Squad Cost Ratio (SCR) and Top to Bottom Anchoring (TBA) are being trialled in parallel.

The SCR model, which mirrors UEFA's rules, would limit clubs to spending up to 85% of total revenue on wages, transfers, and agent fees. The TBA system, meanwhile, would cap total spending relative to the income earned by the league’s lowest-earning club – a structure designed, in the Premier League’s own words, as “a pre-emptive measure to protect competitive balance.”

Although no formal vote has taken place, most clubs are reportedly in favour of adopting SCR in the future, though we do not know Sunderland’s stance after their recent promotion. However, general disagreements over timing amongst Premier League clubs have delayed implementation previously. For now, the existing PSR rules remain binding, with SCR and TBA operating in a shadow format. How and when any changes are rolled out – and how they might benefit clubs like Sunderland – remains to be seen.

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