The Charlotte Hornets need 3-point shooting. It’s a big part of the offense that Charles Lee wants to run and a necessity in the modern NBA. The Hornets have struggled shooting from deep the last couple of years, and the roster needs more players that are going to make outside shots.
Tre Johnson has solidified himself as a high lottery pick because he does just that. He has a case for being the best shooter in the class, and there’s more to his game that puts him in play for the Hornets at pick number four.
Measurements
Height: 6’4.75″
Wingspan: 6’10.25″
Standing reach: 8’5″
Weight: 190.4 pounds
Vertical: 32″ no step, 37.5″ max
Strengths
Outside shooting, shot creation, play making potential
Tre Johnson is arguably the best shot maker in the class. He made a tick under 40% of his 3-point attempts last season on very high volume. He can shoot in just about any circumstance with limited effect on his efficiency. He shot well off the dribble, off the catch, when open, when contested, off movement, everything. If he let it fly, there was a good chance of it going in. He also shot 87.1% at the line. He’s a fearless shot maker that can fill it up in a hurry.
He can also create those looks for himself. He was a very usage isolation player on a pretty lackluster Texas team, and he generated a lot of good looks for himself in those situations, albeit almost always ending in jumpers. He can side step or step back going in either direction and can go to those moves both in the mid range and out behind the 3-point line. There’s not a whole lot of wiggle or creativity with the dribble, but he knows how to create space to get to his jumper.
While Johnson is going to be drafted for his scoring, he’s a good enough passer to be labeled a combo guard. He’s a score first player, but he had a positive assist to turnover ratio and has a decent reel of impressive passes on the interior. There’s room for him to grow here as he uses his shooting ability to draw attention away from teammates to create looks for them.
Question Marks
Play strength, defense, shot selection
Johnson is very slight of frame, and that gives him issues on both ends of the floor. On offense, he struggles with physicality, which forces him into a lot of tough shots. He didn’t draw fouls at a good rate (26.5%) and didn’t finish well at the rim during his freshman season. He gets bumped off his path easily and doesn’t elevate very well in traffic despite his impressive vertical jump at the combine. That makes him heavily reliant on jumpers, and that is a tough shot diet to live off.
The lack of functional strength arguably hurts him even more on the defensive end, and he doesn’t make up for that with any sort of play making or disruptiveness off the ball. He had very low steal and block numbers, and he doesn’t provide much on the boards. His advanced stats are all very poor too. Players with his defensive statistical profile in college almost universally pan out as subpar defenders at the NBA level.
Overall Outlook
Johnson’s 3-point shooting makes him a super enticing prospect, especially in an NBA that so heavily features outside shooting. His shooting ability should get him on the floor quickly and gives him a clear path to a microwave scorer role if nothing else. The upside as a passer and shot creator gives him a little bit more room to build off that as well. I’ve seen multiple Tyler Herro comparisons as a ceiling.
However, there are reasons to be concerned about how much rope he can get given his defensive shortcomings and lack of rim pressure. Players of that archetype seem to generally settle in as microwave scorers off the bench like Lou Williams, Malik Beasley, etc. And for a more Hornets-centric comparison, his collegiate statistical profile is similar to Malik Monk’s, but Johnson is actually worse across the board defensively.