Robert Williams III is arguably the most challenging Portland Trail Blazers player to gauge whether he will be on the move this summer.
On one hand, the Blazers overvalue their big man, shooting down offers involving second-round picks at the deadline. He also shouldn't have much more value on the market than that, considering he's exceeded 35 games played in just two of his seven seasons and is on an expiring $13.3 million deal.
On the other hand, the Blazers should not rely on the 27-year-old, injury-prone big man as part of their long-term plans. He's played just 26 games in the past two seasons in Rip City, and the Blazers already have Donovan Clingan as their defensive anchor going forward.
Sean Highkin of Rose Garden Report recently covered Williams' contract situation, providing a realistic outlook on what to expect:
"Going into the final year of his contract, whatever the Blazers can get out of Williams at this point—either in a trade or in on-court production—is a bonus and not something to be counted on."
The Robert Williams domino effect
This begs the question, what are the Blazers' plans with Williams?
They finally built his trade value back up last season, proving he was healthy and impactful, returning to his old Celtics ways as an All-Defense level player and a tremendous lob threat. But they didn't pass the hot potato, keeping Williams past the deadline. Unfortunately, but unsurprisingly, he suffered another injury shortly after.
Portland finds itself suck between general manager Joe Cronin trying to maximize Williams' value and the reality that his injury-proneness makes him difficult to move for significant assets. Cronin gambled that Williams' health would hold up to maintain his trade value, and it backfired. Now, Portland is stuck. Williams' value has decreased... again, and they must repeat the cycle of building it back up.
There are obvious flaws to that strategy.
Even if he holds up by the deadline, are teams really going to bet that Williams can stay healthy now that the overwhelming evidence and history suggest that isn't the case? He's also on an expiring deal, which means Portland no longer has enough time to give Williams a large enough sample size to rebuild that league-wide confidence in him.
But if they can't trade him, do the Blazers extend Williams, even though, as Highkin notes, they can't count on him?
This is a case of Cronin trying to get too clever and missing the ideal window to cash in on a temporarily healthy but injury-prone asset. Now, the Blazers may just be stuck with nothing. He's not reliable enough to trade for significant assets. He's not reliable enough to count on as part of the rotation.
That's even more problematic considering the depth of Portland's roster. They must let one of Dalano Banton or Jabari Walker walk this summer to create room for their No. 11 overall pick. Meanwhile, Williams is just... there.