The Dallas Mavericks own the No. 1 pick in the upcoming 2025 NBA draft. It's not much of a secret who the Mavs are targeting with that pick, with Duke Blue Devils product Cooper Flagg virtually expected to be the first player called in the draft.
Whether he will live up to the lofty expectations experts and fans have of him is something that remains to be seen, but the hype is indeed there for the talented forward.
However, Flagg's wins above replacement player -- or WARP -- projection by ESPN draft expert Kevin Pelton is lower than those of Zion Williamson’s and Luka Doncic’s pre-NBA draft. Pelton's WARP is an estimate of the average number of wins a player can contribute to a team through his first five seasons in the NBA vis-à-vis a replacement-level player.
Former Duke forward Cooper Flagg at the 2025 NBA Draft Combine.
Former Duke forward Cooper Flagg at the 2025 NBA Draft Combine.
© David Banks-Imagn Images
In Flagg's case, Pelton's calculation leaves the Newport, Maine-native with a 5.3 WARP, which is the third-highest on the expert's database that dates back to 2003. Williamson still has the best WARP of 5.5 while Doncic is second with 5.4.
Projecting a prospect's career in the NBA is not an exact science, but models such as that of Pelton's help paint a picture of how good a player is.
Flagg is a tantalizing prospect for a number of reasons, including his great blend of size, length, versatility and elite play on both ends of the floor. He's also viewed as a cerebral player whose basketball IQ was on full display during his lone year in Durham.
During his only season with the Blue Devils, he averaged 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.2 assists while posting a 60.4 true shooting percentage.