It is about a year since, in the words of one insider at Newcastle United, “all hell broke loose” at St James’ Park.
The club had known for a while there was an iceberg named the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) lurking over the horizon but had a few options to avert a head-on collision.
First of all, there was a working assumption someone would trigger Bruno Guimaraes’ release clause, which would have wiped out the deficit in an instant.
When that didn’t happen – blame over zealous advisors and a lack of appetite at £100m – pulses began to quicken. “Unthinkable” deals began to be pondered, such as selling Anthony Gordon to Liverpool, trying to smoke out Paris Saint-Germain’s interest in Sven Botman or picking up the phone to Chelsea about Alexander Isak.
It was a scene repeated on Merseyside and in the East Midlands as Everton and Nottingham Forest traded furiously in fear of points deductions. Newcastle ducked in under the limit at the last minute, selling Elliot Anderson to Forest and Yankuba Minteh to Brighton, but in a funny way the legacy remains.
In the goalkeeping department, for a start, where goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimos has found himself an expensive pawn in the PSR scramble.
NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE, ENGLAND - MAY 25: Newcastle United manager Eddie Howe celebrates gaining a Champions League place after the Premier League match between Newcastle United FC and Everton FC at St James' Park on May 25, 2025 in Newcastle upon Tyne, England. (Photo by Alex Dodd - CameraSport via Getty Images)
PSR caution is still lingering over Newcastle’s business (Photo: Getty)
Newcastle signed him on a long-term deal with promises of pushing for a starting role but the portents weren’t great when Eddie Howe wasn’t even available to speak to him before he put pen to paper on the most expensive deal Newcastle have done for a goalkeeper.
He played once, is now fifth choice, could go out on loan and the Magpies are looking to sign another stopper.
Speak to people in recruitment and they will tell you the panic isn’t anywhere near as pronounced this year. The suspicion is that Aston Villa are sweating after missing out on the Champions League – and Newcastle, ironically, are on standby when it comes to long-term target Jacob Ramsey – but lessons seem to have been learned everywhere.
Newcastle, having had their feet held to the fire in 2024, seem to have forgotten how to do deals after two transfer windows of PSR parsimony. “The caution over PSR there feels as if it’s become ingrained,” one intermediary who has spoken to the club recently reckoned.
His theory is that Newcastle want to keep their bottom line healthy so that in 2026 they won’t be held to ransom over Isak or Sandro Tonali, who will be close to peak price by then.
“They’re thinking about the next window and then the one after, trying to drive down asking prices. It’s clever in a way – look at Liverpool, keeping their powder dry last year and then splurging this – but sooner or later, I think they’re just going to have to pay over the odds and set the ball rolling.”
So PSR is working then? Well in one sense it is. While Newcastle have been chastened and Villa ponder big sales, Manchester United – who came 15th in the league, fresh off several rounds of redundancies under Ineos ownership – have already spent £60m on Matheus Cunha and want to spend similar on Bryan Mbeumo.
Chuck in rumours of interest in Hugo Ekitike and that’s a pretty big potential spend for a club that has become a byword for recruitment incompetence over the last five years.
In a world where revenue is king, United’s advantage is baked in. They are reaping rewards – and income streams – from titles won over a decade ago.
Liverpool and Manchester City are spending big – causing palpitations among supporters at St James’ Park, where progress over deals is much slower – but they have shared the Premier League title between them since 2018. It’s 13 years since the Red Devils were a contender and both Newcastle and Villa have finished above them in successive seasons.
Financial fair play is supposed to keep clubs in the black but what it’s actually doing is creating a glass ceiling for Villa, Newcastle and the likes of Nottingham Forest. All are having to overachieve hugely year on year to stay in contention – how long will that last?
The Premier League always absorbs the blame here but even if they wanted to loosen up the regulations, the bigger picture is Uefa’s requirements to play in European competition are just as tight.
And – in fairness to the Premier League – they are fighting a worrying new front in the financial fair play battle.
While PSR is on its way out in a year – likely to be replaced by squad cost controls which tie clubs into spending a set multiple of their incomings and an anchoring system to retain competitive balance – there is a third strand currently being worked on in the background.
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That is known as “sustainability” and will be tied into the upcoming independent regulator for the game. Some fear it will be even more restrictive, possibly even requiring clubs to prove their liquidity by having a set amount of cash in the bank. More red tape that reduces the element of risk that makes the game what it is would be unwelcome.
Instead of giving more power to the bean counters the game needs more creative solutions. How about a Premier League version of the so-called “luxury tax”, where clubs can “buy” PSR headroom off rivals (within reason)?
That would create the potential for striving clubs to kick on while also rewarding those – like Bournemouth and Brentford – who have recruited well and see their top players picked off. That means they have oodles of PSR headroom but don’t see much for it. If they could “auction off” some of it, it puts cash in the bank while giving others room to invest.
No one wants a wild west where anyone can spend anything and distort the competition. But change is needed or the Premier League will ultimately pay the price.