Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers begins at 5:00 PM, Pacific today on ABC TV. You can find our Game Day Open Thread right here to talk about the action as it unfolds. Before we get there, a few people have been asking me for thoughts and predictions in the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag (blazersub@gmail.com). Here are a couple.
First, games like this usually go one of two ways. It’s possible Indiana had their last, brilliant “light bulb just before it goes out” flash in Game 6 when they blew out the Thunder. Often the final game of the series becomes a blowout in reverse under these conditions. We might see Oklahoma City romp past the Pacers in a laugher.
But, if that doesn’t happen, teams in Indiana’s position often win it. If this game is close, Oklahoma City should be scared.
Favored status in a series plays out over time. Just like flipping a coin, the more times you try it, the closer to the expected average result you’ll get. The chances of getting all tails in four trials are small, but measurable. (1 in 16, to be exact.) The chances of getting all tails in 400 trials are infinitesimal. Flip it just twice and there’s a straight 50% chance you’re going to end up with the same result on both coins, the same odds you’d get for heads or tails flipping it just once. Probability doesn’t reign in the short term like it does in the long run. This is why you sometimes make money when you go to Las Vegas but the casino always does.
Is OKC really the favored team if the series is down to just one game? Probably. But so many variables come into play that their edge gets blunted. Narrow the length of time to one quarter and it’s very small. Take the action down to a single play and there’s no real edge at all.
If Indiana stays close through the end of the fourth quarter tonight it means, by definition, Oklahoma City hasn’t pressed any advantage. At that point the Pacers are probably playing better relative to their mean than the Thunder are relative to theirs. The Pacers are the horse to ride in that scenario.
If the margin stays wide, I’m sticking with Oklahoma City as the victor. But if it’s a close game, I’m guessing the Pacers will win it.
Either way, we’re lucky to be able to talk about this kind of series. Which begs the question: what the heck is the NBA doing????
Even though ratings for this matchup are down, it’s still one of the best, most viewable Finals series we’ve had in a while. That’s even more true with the contest going to a seventh and deciding game today. So what happens?
Midway through the series news breaks that the single most visible franchise in the entire league will be sold with a record valuation in a never-seen-it-before transaction.
On the LITERAL MORNING of Game 7 itself—the exact time the entire world should be focusing on Indiana and Oklahoma City, their shining moment—the news of a Kevin Durant trade comes across the wire and blows everything else out of the water.
Anything else you want to do? Announce that LeBron James is a robot? Have the Knicks sign Syndey Sweeney to a free agent contract? Baste Billy Joel with BBQ sauce on live TV?
The timing of these news releases is unfortunate, almost to the point of negligence. I’m not sure what the league can do. A moratorium won’t help because announcements about transactions precede execution. We don’t care when the Durant trade will be finalized, just that it will. You can put a moratorium on actions but not on negotiations or news. You’d think that maybe, just maybe, franchises like the Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, and Houston Rockets would have respect for the actual game of basketball in addition to their own dealings, but hey, why would the sport—or anyone else playing it—matter to three such prominent examples of NBA greatness?
(To be clear, Houston has some claim to relevance, having finished second in the Western Conference this year. The Lakers and Suns are also-rans, struggling mightily to get anywhere near the heights of Oklahoma City and Indiana.)
Intentional or not, the league’s franchisees have now done everything possible to distract and divert from what should be the central focus of these two weeks. It’s another example of the glitz of the association and the popularity of armchair GM’ing among NBA fans overtaking the actual sport. Modern observers get way more excited about drafting players, trading them, and fantasizing same than they do about watching them play. I get it, but it’s still sad, more so when members of the NBA aid and abet the process.
Either way, here’s hoping everyone enjoys the seventh game of the best NBA Finals to come down the pike since before COVID hit. Sorry Pacers and Thunder. Some of us still see you.