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NBA Champion Thunder’s Bright Future Could Lift Valuation

In Game 7 of the NBA Finals, the Oklahoma City Thunder defeated the Indiana Pacers 103-91 on Sunday to capture the city’s first NBA championship—and the franchise’s first since it won as the Seattle SuperSonics in 1979.

This is one of the most dominant teams in NBA history. The Thunder won 68 regular season games, tied for the fifth-most ever—with a record-breaking 54 of them by double-digits. Oklahoma City’s regular season net rating of +12.8 was the second highest of all-time (trailing the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls). Its net rating took a dip in the postseason, but the team still won 10 playoff games by double digits.

The team accomplished all that despite a roster with an average age of 24.7, weighted by playoff minutes, according to Basketball-Reference. That makes the Thunder the second-youngest champion since the NBA/ABA merger, behind only the 1976-77 Portland Trail Blazers (24.5).

The average age of the typical title winner over the past four decades is 28.7, meaning the Thunder are years ahead of schedule. It is rare for a team this young to be even very good, much less historically elite. The only other team since 2000 younger than 25 years old with a regular season net rating of +7.0 or better was the 2023-24 Thunder.

In large part due to their youth—their best players are all signed to rookie contracts or rookie extensions—the Thunder paid $165.6 million in total salary this season, good for 25th in the NBA and below the luxury tax threshold. Every player in Oklahoma City’s rotation will be back next season at a similar price, so the team is positioned to avoid the tax again. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will make $38.3 million and $40.8 million over the next two seasons—relative bargains for an NBA MVP entering his prime—before his potential supermax extension begins in 2027-28.

Oklahoma City also has no fewer than 20 draft picks through 2029, including the No. 15 and No. 24 picks in a 2025 draft that is widely considered to be strong. Should its current roster eventually become expensive, the franchise is well-positioned to reshuffle the deck with more cheap, young talent.

In 2006, Clay Bennett led a group that paid $350 million for the SuperSonics, which were moved to Oklahoma City two years later and christened the Thunder. Ownership has reaped a 10x return on paper from its investment—Sportico valued the team at $3.55 billion in its December NBA team valuations, which ranked 24th in the league.

Big-market teams will continue to dominate the top of the NBA’s financial table, but the Thunder can move up the valuation rankings with a sustained run of on-court success. Winning in the NBA drives more pricing power on tickets, suites and sponsorships, in addition to playoff revenue, where the home team keeps 75% of gate receipts. The Denver Nuggets, for instance, generated the 22nd-most revenue during the 2021-22 season, which ended in a first-round exit, but moved up to 15th the following year when they won the title.

The San Antonio Spurs ranked as the 22nd-most valuable NBA team ahead of their first championship in 1999. Four more titles followed over the next 15 years, and the team rose as high as eighth in Forbes’ franchise valuations list. San Antonio placed in the top 10 every year between 2006 and 2013, despite being one of the league’s five smallest markets.

Winning helped the Spurs’ value jump, but more important to their rise was the opening of a new venue in 2002 after previously using the cavernous Alamodome, which doubled as a football stadium. The timing on the vote to approve taxpayer funding was fortuitous, as it came the same day the Spurs raised their championship banner to the rafters to open the 1999-2000 season.

The Thunder, which play in the third smallest NBA market, have already locked in their new building. In December 2023, 71% of voters chose to extend Oklahoma City’s existing one-cent MAPS (Metropolitan Area Projects) sales tax, which will fund $850 million of a new $900 million arena set to open in 2028. Thunder ownership will cover the balance. Securing financing pushed the Thunder up two spots in Sportico’s valuations rankings.

The city highlighted three goals for the arena project, including to benefit city residents and meet NBA specifications. The final one: “Maximize team revenues, ensuring the sustainability of major league professional sports in Oklahoma City.”

Thunder revenues should grow, but they will inevitably push up against the ceiling given their geography. In the long run, a small market is still a small market. The Spurs, for example, now six years removed from a playoff appearance, are back down to 20th in Sportico’s valuations rankings.

Other teams have followed similar rise-and-fall patterns. The impact of LeBron James is a different animal, but Forbes pegged the Cleveland Cavaliers as the 11th-most valuable franchise after James brought the city its first title in 2016. Less than a decade later, and with James having long moved on to Los Angeles, Sportico ranks them 18th.

And lengthy championship windows are never guaranteed, especially in this NBA era of parity, devastating playoff injuries and roster-building restrictions outlined in the CBA. No champion has repeated since the Golden State Warriors won the NBA Finals in 2017 and 2018, and during that time, six consecutive title winners have failed to advance past the second round the following year.

But no one is better equipped than the Thunder to show a dynasty can still exist in the modern NBA.

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