Rutgers guard Dylan Harper, right, and Duke Wing Cooper Flagg participate in the 2025 NBA Draft Combine on May 13 in Chicago. The general consensus is that Flagg and Harper are the top two players respectively in this week’s NBA Draft. David Banks Imagn Images
The 2025 NBA draft class as a whole is a fascinating one for myriad reasons.
Last year, I did not have a player ranked in my top two tiers of prospects, tiers reserved for players I am projecting to become at least an All-Star-caliber player. This season, I have one Tier 1 and one Tier 2 player.
Cooper Flagg is, unsurprisingly, the No. 1-ranked player, and he has the second-highest grade I have given to a prospect in the past decade, behind only Victor Wembanyama. Flagg has a tremendous blend of ceiling and floor. His skill level, improvement as a shooter, defense and overall competitiveness make him about as safe a prospect as you can find. However, he also has some very high-end potential that could turn him into a top-five player in the league.
Dylan Harper falls into my second tier, which is the category for All-Stars. Harper’s ability to get into the paint and score at will, in addition to his polish and craft as a shot creator at nearly 6-foot-5, gives him a very high upside as the kind of big creator every team wants.
Beyond those two, I am a bit lower on this class of prospects than the consensus seems to be. I don’t see this as a particularly star-laden draft outside of the top two. I like the depth of potential starters and role players that exists throughout the lottery, and there is probably a bit more upside in the No. 18 to No. 25 range of this board than normal, but I think many of those players come with serious questions that they’re going to have to work hard over the next couple of years to answer.
Once we get into even the early part of the second round, there is precious little depth compared with a normal draft. Players across the country received multiple millions of dollars to stay in college basketball this year, which has cratered the second round and undrafted free-agent group.
As I have covered the draft and the NBA as a whole, I have started to adjust what I look for in players and the kinds of players who tend to be valuable to me as an evaluator. For instance, this year, you will not find a single player in my lottery who is under 6-foot-4 without shoes, with the 6-4 V.J. Edgecombe ending up as the smallest. In today’s NBA, it’s just exceptionally difficult to be small while providing value. Essentially, smaller lead creators need to either hit All-Star status or risk turning into bench players, as many of them are defensive liabilities.
What I value is finding players who can dribble, pass, shoot and defend, all while doing so with positional size. Those are the athletes in the modern NBA who have value. Can you achieve the responsibilities of your role on defense? Can you hit shots and force defenses to stay in rotation when you play off the ball? Can you create your own shot and threaten defenses? And can you process the game at a high enough level to make quick decisions, space the court off the ball and make high-level passing reads when you have the ball? Precious few players are going to achieve all of these tasks. But finding those skills is the baseline goal.
In that vein, there are certainly players this year on whom I seem to be higher than the consensus, much like there are every year. Those players are Kon Knueppel, Cedric Coward, Collin Murray-Boyles, Noah Penda and Ryan Kalkbrenner. The players I’m probably a bit lower on than consensus? Jeremiah Fears, Egor Demin, Noa Essengue and Rasheer Fleming. If you notice a trend there, I hope it’s that I value high-level processors of the game with size and skill, while downgrading players who I think are interesting on-ball upside swings but have a lower chance to hit any sort of threshold with the ball in their hands.
The Top Two, and Then All the Rest
TIER 1: ALL-NBA PLAYERS
1. Cooper Flagg (Wing, Duke)
18 years old, 6-foot-8
Flagg is about as complete a prospect as I have evaluated in the years I’ve been doing this. During my time as an evaluator since 2015, I have him ranked second behind only Victor Wembanyama, higher than that of Flagg’s fellow Blue Devil Zion Williamson. While I think Williamson’s theoretical ceiling was higher than Flagg’s, Flagg’s overall game on both ends of the court and his blend of skill level and craft will likely translate better to high-leverage situations. I see Flagg as a future All-NBA player, with an upside that he could become a top-five player in the league. His overall impact on the game on both ends of the floor is remarkable. He is the exact kind of player an organization wants to build around in terms of temperament and mentality, particularly one who wants to win championships. He is an immediate organizational centerpiece.
TIER 2: ALL-STAR, HIGH-LEVEL STARTERS
2. Dylan Harper (Guard, Rutgers)
19 years old, 6-foot-5
Harper is a terrific bet as a high-level NBA guard. He ticks nearly every box. He created rim pressure at an elite level this year at Rutgers, despite playing in an archaic offense that lacked spacing. He drew fouls regularly and showcased enough vision as a passer that he could be a primary playmaker. Defensively, he is willing and competitive, plus he has great size. The only cause for concern is that Harper needs to keep working through his pull-up game, given how important that piece of the puzzle is for lead NBA guards. Harper just barely misses being a Tier 1 player for me and is near the top end of Tier 2. He projects as a potential All-Star with an All-NBA ceiling if things break right developmentally.
TIER 3: HIGH-LEVERAGE STARTERS
3. Kon Knueppel (Wing, Duke)
19 years old, 6-foot-5
Knueppel gets unfairly pigeonholed as just a shooter, but the versatility of his game makes him an attractive prospect. It’s very hard to find players in the NBA who can dribble, pass, shoot and make decisions on top of having solid positional size. He is likely going to be an elite shooter who can get to his shot from a variety of situations. As defenders start closing out on him hard, he should be able to add to his game and build off that threat. The only thing I’m worried about with Knueppel is defense, where his slower feet might hinder him at the highest levels. It’s possible that I end up looking silly and Knueppel is nothing more than a solid rotation player. But my read is that he will become the kind of starting-caliber wing who helps a team win a lot.
4. V.J. Edgecombe (Guard, Baylor)
19 years old, 6-foot-4
Edgecombe is one of the safest prospects in the draft. He is an elite athlete, and his defense is genuinely tremendous. He is disruptive all over the court on the defensive end and makes opposing players’ lives miserable. Then on offense, Edgecombe is a shooter off the catch who started to show an ability to knock down shots from 3 off movement. He also knows how to cut and play off the ball well, as we have seen in a variety of situations. Ultimately, his upside will be tied to whatever level you think he can reach on the ball. Do you buy into his work ethic enough to think he will become a player who can create advantages with his athleticism? I might be a touch lower than the consensus on Edgecombe’s ceiling, but a top-40 player projection makes Edgecombe a top-five player in this class.
5. Tre Johnson (Wing, Texas)
19 years old, 6-foot-5
I’m a believer in Johnson’s game and demeanor. I respect the way he goes about his craft and think he’s going to keep getting better as he ages. Ultimately, two things will be key to his reaching his upside. First, he will have to get stronger. He needs to be able to displace players on his drives a bit more effectively. The second point is simply fit. It would behoove him to land in a situation that allows him to be a high-level floor spacer and movement shooter who attacks off close-outs as opposed to being tasked with creating a significant amount of his team’s offense. Hopefully, that would allow him to get minutes on the court early, then continue to flow into the rest of his game off the bounce, where he can use the threat of his shot to expand his repertoire as he gets older and stronger.
6. Ace Bailey (Wing, Rutgers)
18 years old, 6-foot-8
Bailey could be the second-best player in this class if he improves in certain areas. Particularly, he needs more flexibility and the ability to play with bend, and he needs to get stronger. Once he does that, Bailey should work on his gathers and ball pickups around the rim to improve his finishing, which would also get defenders off-balance and give him more options. There is a chance that Bailey could morph into a star-level difference-maker on the wing, but a lot would need to happen. I would be somewhat uncomfortable drafting a player like this in the top five, but the good news is that there is a floor here. Already, Bailey is a shooter off the catch and a player with size, length and athleticism. That should allow him to stick in the NBA for a long while, even if the upside case doesn’t totally come together.
TIER 4: STARTER/ALL-STAR TOOL SWINGS
7. Kasparas Jakucionis (Guard, Illinois)
19 years old, 6-foot-5
Jakucionis is a tremendously skilled basketball player who fits into the kind of archetype that I love. I’m a big fan of players who can dribble, pass, shoot and process the game at a high level and have good positional size. If Jakucionis ends up not being able to separate enough on the ball, he can play off the ball and hammer advantages that are created for him by high-level creative guards because he can shoot, drive and read what’s going on around him. Jakucionis is also a special passer who I hope continues to work on his craft as a ballhandler to get separation from his man consistently without turning the ball over and feeling rushed. My read is that he will be a great secondary ballhandler who can play with and help starters while also running second units, but don’t discount the potential for more.
8. Collin Murray-Boyles (Forward, South Carolina)
20 years old, 6-foot-7
Murray-Boyles is quite polarizing for NBA teams. Some see a dynamic, multipositional defender with whom they can work as a shooter to get true difference-making outcomes. Others see him as a player caught between positions who could struggle to make an impact unless his jumper ends up coming through. I have Murray-Boyles ranked eighth, but if I were working with an NBA team, I would not have him here. I would have a specific situation to draft him into and would know how likely it would be that my coaching staff could get the best out of him -- perhaps as high as No. 5, if I had the right players and a creative coach with him. But if I felt like my coaching staff wouldn’t know how best to use him, I would probably have him outside the lottery.
9. Cedric Coward (Wing, Washington State)
21 years old, 6-foot-5
I had Coward as a top-35 player entering the season, and he looked well on his way to being a first-round pick before a shoulder injury. He has everything it takes to turn into a useful, starting-quality NBA player. He is extremely long and has a beautiful 3-point shot with a track record of success. He has defensive bona fides and shows a desire to be impactful on that end. He makes good decisions in the way he processes the game, and he moves at a high level without the ball. He also has an elite frame that he continues to grow into. His lack of a track record against elite competition gives me enough pause not to go overboard in how I rank him. Still, there is every reason to believe he can be an impact NBA player, and the lottery ranking here reflects that.
10. Carter Bryant (Wing, Arizona)
19 years old, 6-foot-7
Bryant profiles extremely well as a 3-and-D player in the NBA. He has great positional size for a wing and already has defensive chops. He is an aggressive and high-level competitor who turns up the pressure on that end of the court, plus he has terrific playmaking instincts to get into passing lanes and find weakside rim rotations. He profiles as being switchable on defense and should be able to manage perimeter players. The key will be finding a role on offense. I am a little skeptical of his overall game on that end, but he is extremely likely to be a shooter. This could result in his being something of a low-usage player if the ball-handling and passing acumen never totally come along, but this kind of player would still be valuable if he has to be guarded as a shooter and is switchable on defense.
11. Khaman Maluach (Big, Duke)
18 years old, 7-foot-1
Maluach’s size, length, lateral ability and work ethic are extremely enticing tools. If you look across the league, the NBA prefers to get bigs into their systems when they are quite young. That’s because tools matter, and coaching staffs have gotten quite good at teaching bigs to use them. Given that Maluach appears to be coachable, there are teams that will buy into his game and believe they can work with what he has at his disposal. Ultimately, his upside is the question. His higher center of gravity worries me in terms of his ability to add functional basketball strength and roll with downhill force toward the rim. Still, I believe he will defend well. I see him as something in the ballpark of a league-average starting center. That is worth a later lottery pick.
12. Derik Queen (Big, Maryland)
20 years old, 6-foot-9
Queen is, unsurprisingly, a polarizing player. Some teams see the idea of a playmaking center in the Alperen Sengun mold, a productive player who will average 20 points and 10 rebounds for a long time. There are plenty of reasons to buy into that. Queen has an innate feel for the game and a tremendous skill set on offense that should translate thanks to his balance and perimeter talent. And yet, there are reasons for skepticism. Defensively, he will be asked to do far more in the NBA than he did at Maryland, and he will be put in disadvantageous positions. He will need to work incredibly hard to become more capable on that end, and even then, he may not hit a certain level. The best thing that Queen can do is continue to work on his conditioning and footwork.
TIER 5: ROTATION PLAYERS AND UPSIDE SWINGS
13. Joan Beringer (Big, France)
18 years old, 6-foot-9
Where teams fall on Beringer will ultimately be determined by their willingness to take on a project. It’s going to take time to get Beringer up to speed across the board. He is still exceptionally raw and learning the game. Still, there’s not a big man in this class who moves better than Beringer. He is exceptionally twitchy on the floor and when he lifts off the ground to dunk or block a shot. He also is flexible and plays with genuine bend. Not many people this size move like this. Given that he is also highly regarded from a character perspective, it’s hard not to buy into him as an NBA player at some point. At the very least, he could turn into a backup center.
14. Danny Wolf (Big, Michigan)
21 years old, 6-foot-11
Wolf is one of the most interesting prospects in this draft class, given that the goal in today’s league is to get as much skill and size on the court as possible. Wolf has a standing reach of more than 9 feet, possesses guard skills and isn’t a total stiff defensively. And yet, there are significant flaws. His turnover rate is sky high, which tends to be a bad indicator. His needs to iron out inconsistencies in his jumper. Defensively, he might not be quick enough to guard effectively once he reaches the NBA level, with increased space in driving lanes and a wider court to cover. Drafting Wolf is a risk. There is a chance that his game just won’t work out. But given how hard it is to find skilled players like him, I’m probably going to be higher on Wolf than the consensus.
15. Thomas Sorber (Big, Georgetown)
19 years old, 6-foot-9
Sorber is a fascinating player. On some level, he looks like a relic of a past generation, at 6-foot-9 with a bigger-bodied frame. He also lacks some explosiveness that many bigs possess. And yet, he has a remarkably productive game that is very modern in its construction. He excels at keeping advantages that guards create for him because of his passing on the move. His natural reactivity is also enticing, and I think there is some improvement potential with his frame. In person, he looks quite young and like he is still growing into his body. He is a bit more of a project than a ready-made player, but there is enough upside that I think he can develop into a starting center.
16. Noa Essengue (Big, France)
18 years old, 6-foot-9
Essengue is a really tough prospect to evaluate. On one hand, he is productive in a professional league overseas and has some athletic traits that make him potentially valuable. On the other, the German league is not great (it’s a level below the French and Adriatic leagues), and he has some flaws that could cause him problems in the NBA. He struggles to shoot the ball and has not shown many moments as a high-level passer this season. His ball-handling needs to tighten up. On defense, he shows impressive flashes, but the possession-by-possession consistency isn’t there, and he often will get beat both on and off the ball. Essengue is a project, and the willingness to go down the road with him will vary team to team.
17. Jase Richardson (Guard, Michigan State)
19 years old, 6-foot-1
It’s hard to be a small guard in the NBA, and I’m not totally convinced that Richardson is ready for the leap. Richardson is going to have to spend the next few years diversifying his all-around game to make it work in the NBA given how thin the margin for error is for smaller guards. The good news is that he has genuinely terrific touch and amazing contact balance through bumps. If he can find the right team situation or can improve his separation ability, he has a shot to be a useful scoring guard. But he won’t be for everyone because of how a team will have to work around his limitations with his right hand, as a passer and as a pull-up shooter early in his career.
18. Jeremiah Fears (Guard, Oklahoma)
18 years old, 6-foot-3
With small, on-ball-only players -- and I believe that’s what Fears is -- you either buy into them as potential All-Star lead guards or you don’t. If you don’t, you probably see them as more likely to be bench scorers, which diminishes their value drastically. With how I evaluate players and value the ability to dribble, pass, shoot and defend on top of having positional size, Fears ultimately doesn’t clear the line because of his shooting struggles, finishing problems and significant defensive deficiencies. He is crafty and skilled as a ballhandler, and it is exceptionally difficult to stay in front of him. But there is a narrow path toward winning in the NBA with this type of player in a prominent role.
19. Walter Clayton Jr. (Guard, Florida)
22 years old, 6-foot-2
I have loved Clayton as a player long before the explosive end to his collegiate career. But his improvements over the past three months of his college career have rightfully pushed him into first-round status. His ability to play more consistently at pace with his hoppy cadence to find his shot off two feet has made him lethal to deal with defensively. He is an underrated athlete in his explosiveness and balance. He competes on defense and is strong, even if his size will create limitations. It’s easy to see Clayton developing into a high-end scorer off the bench in the NBA, and there is upside beyond that if he proves capable of improving his ball-screen reads and becoming an even better passer. It’s hard to find scoring guards with this kind of pull-up gravity.
20. Liam McNeeley (Wing, UConn)
19 years old, 6-foot-7
McNeeley’s season this year is very context dependent. Not only did he injure his ankle, but he also was asked to do more than he was ready for on the ball. McNeeley’s role in the NBA also won’t be to play on the ball. It will be to hit open 3s when they come available, to attack close-outs and to make good decisions. He can do that. Defensively, there are questions about his foot speed. He struggled this year to keep up with quicker players. But he is smart and anticipates plays well around the court. I don’t see him as a plus defender, but there is a chance he can get to neutral. I would love to bet on McNeeley’s becoming a good, rotational floor spacer.
21. Noah Penda (Wing, France)
20 years old, 6-foot-7
Penda is my kind of player, which is why he will likely be a bit higher here than he is compared with the consensus. He has enormous positional size, is a tough defender, processes the game well and has the potential to be a wing who can dribble, pass and shoot. Defensively, he can gamble, but he generally knows where he is supposed to be and is disruptive. He holds his line on defense and doesn’t allow guards or wings to go through his enormous frame. The swing skill here is the jumper. As long as Penda’s frame doesn’t get any bigger and thus slow his foot speed, he will be an impact player in the NBA if the jumper translates. I have Penda as my highest-ranked international player, just outside the lottery on my board, and would happily take a chance on him.
22. Nolan Traore (Guard, France)
19 years old, 6-foot-3
It is difficult to be as productive as Traore was in the French league and in the Basketball Champions League this season. He averaged 12 points and 5 assists with nearly a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He is terrific with the ball and has a sense for how to get his teammates involved as a passer and a playmaker. Ultimately, Traore will need to develop his jumper to get defenders off-balance. Otherwise, he will probably end up as more of a backup point guard. But if the shot comes along, he could be the kind of solid lead guard who makes good decisions, scores when required and defends his position.
23. Will Riley (Wing, Illinois)
19 years old, 6-foot-8
I ended up a bit higher on Riley than I thought I would be coming into the draft process largely because I loved the growth within his offensive game throughout the season. Riley is fearless as a driver and can play as a secondary creator. He also showed better understanding of how to make passing reads this year than I expected, and he has a really natural feel for the game. Ultimately, two big questions stop me from moving Riley higher. First, I worry that his frame won’t allow him to consistently play through contact effectively on either end. Second, his jumper is too inconsistent to rely on. His mechanics are really spotty. While I buy that he has touch and I think it will improve in time, he has to get to a higher level of shooter.
24: Hugo Gonzalez (Wing, Spain)
19 years old, 6-foot-6
25: Nique Clifford (Wing, Colorado State)
23 years old, 6-foot-5
Clifford is older, and his track record when he was younger does not inspire much excitement. However, his improvement over the past two years has been remarkable. He consistently proved that he can play with anyone. He also possesses skills that NBA teams covet as a wing who can process the game, dribble, pass, shoot and defend all while having solid positional size. If Clifford ends up failing, it will likely be because his jumper was too streaky and he could not quite settle in. If that happens, the rest of his offensive game could fall apart. But he has been a good enough shooter over the larger sample of the past two years that I am willing to bet on it, and him.
26. Egor Demin (Guard, Brigham Young)
19 years old, 6-foot-8
If you think Demin can turn the corner in the NBA with the increased driving lanes that he will see, can improve his shot and can defend using his length more consistently, then you should have him as a top-10 player in the class. The tools here are outrageous given his spectacular feel for the game as a passer and processor. I just wish that I could get there. Unfortunately, Demin has no track record of shooting. And if he can’t score, he likely won’t be able to consistently force the help rotations that would help him get the best out of his passing ability in half-court settings. Then on defense, I haven’t seen enough to believe that he can bring physicality and hold his line against physical drivers.
27. Ryan Kalkbrenner (Big, Creighton)
23 years old, 7-foot-1
Will Kalkbrenner’s strengths outweigh his limitations? He has a case as the best rim protector in this draft. He has an elite skill that he has shown over many years at Creighton. In the right scheme, he could slot in and become a key cog off the bench on an awesome defensive team. But with his problems in space defensively, becoming a shooter and maxing out any lateral quickness that he has will be the key. If Kalkbrenner could become a shooter, he has a chance to be a low-level starter in the right scheme. Still, it’s hard to predict that given the incredibly low number of three-plus-year college players who go on to become starting centers in the NBA. Regardless, I think that he will stick as an enormous paint protector with a high IQ.
TIER 6: SECOND-ROUND GUARANTEE SWINGS
28. Ben Saraf (Guard, Israel)
19 years old, 6-foot-6
29. Asa Newell (Big, Georgia)
19 years old, 6-foot-9
30. Maxime Raynaud (Big, Stanford)
22 years old, 7-foot
31. Adou Thiero (Wing, Arkansas)
21 years old, 6-foot-6
32. Rasheer Fleming (Big, St. Joseph’s)
20 years old, 6-foot-8
33. Kam Jones (Guard, Marquette)
23 years old, 6-foot-3
34. Drake Powell (Wing, North Carolina)
19 years old, 6-foot-5
35. John Tonje (Wing, Wisconsin)
24 years old, 6-foot-5
36. Tyrese Proctor (Guard, Duke)
21 years old, 6-foot-4
TIER 7: PRIORITY TWO-WAYS
37. Alijah Martin (Guard, Florida)
23 years old, 6-foot-2
38. Alex Toohey (Wing, Australia)
21 years old, 6-foot-8
39. Sion James (Guard, Duke)
22 years old, 6-foot-5
40. Johni Broome (Big, Auburn)
22 years old, 6-foot-9
41. Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Big, Penn State)
22 years old, 6-foot-11
42. Bogoljub Markovic (Big, Serbia)
19 years old, 6-foot-11
43. Brice Williams (Wing, Nebraska)
23 years old, 6-foot-5
44. Chaz Lanier (Guard, Tennessee)
23 years old, 6-foot-4
45. Brooks Barnhizer (Wing, Northwestern)
23 years old, 6-foot-5
46. Micah Peavy (Wing, Georgetown)
23 years old, 6-foot-6
47. Max Shulga (Guard, Virginia Commonwealth)
22 years old, 6-foot-4
48. Hansen Yang (Big, China)
19 years old, 7-foot-1
49. Koby Brea (Wing, Kentucky)
22 years old, 6-foot-6
50. Rocco Zikarsky (Big, Australia)
18 years old, 7-foot-3
51. Vladislav Goldin (Big, Michigan)
24 years old, 7-foot
52. Hunter Sallis (Guard, Wake Forest)
22 years old, 6-foot-4
53. Kobe Sanders (Wing, Nevada)
23 years old, 6-foot-7
54. Jamir Watkins (Wing, Florida State)
23 years old, 6-foot-5
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
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